Election 2024 - Kamala - Polling

[GURPS]

'This Is Peak Kamala': Downhill From Here?​

Can Kamala Harris improve her standing with voters? Or does she come into the competitive presidential race as high as she'll get? I've written about Harris' prospects several times over the last few weeks since the Dump Biden movement began, warning Democrats that Harris turned out to be poor at it in 2019, and then showed even less competence after becoming Vice President.

Just to recall, here's her favorability chart from RCP. Harris is not starting from scratch, nor does she begin with much good will from the electorate:

"She can't win as the Kamala Harris who who wanted to defund police, contributes bail money to arsonists, wants to abolish ICE. That's way out of the mainstream."

Of course, Harris could recognize that at some point and attempt to tack back to the center. However, just in the time that Harris became the presumptive nominee, she has shown no inclination to do so. At a time when Harris needs to establish herself on foreign policy -- which Joe Biden ran entirely himself -- she joined the far-Left of her party to snub the prime minister of a key strategic ally and went to speak to a sorority instead. And when the far-Left riots began on the streets of DC over Benjamin Netanyahu's address to Congress, it took Harris 24 hours to issue a statement of condemnation over their violence.

 

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[vraiblonde]

It stuns me and doesn't say good things about American voters that she's polling anywhere close to Trump. Her numbers should be in the teens if even that high.

 

[vraiblonde]

 

[PrchJrkr]

It stuns me and doesn't say good things about American voters that she's polling anywhere close to Trump. Her numbers should be in the teens if even that high.

Vote blue, no matter who!

 

[Hijinx]

Yes ! Indeed ! The problem is that people here do not understand the democrat mind.
They think the United states will continue no matter who they elect.
They don't see the dangers of the open borders, the inflation, the crime.
They only see their party in power.

This woman as stupid as she is has a good chance of beating Trump.
Not by her campaign ,not by her abilities, not by her personality.
Her main attraction is her belonging to the Democrat party. They vote democrat, and if there aren't enough of them they cheat.

 

[SamSpade]

It stuns me and doesn't say good things about American voters that she's polling anywhere close to Trump. Her numbers should be in the teens if even that high.

Biden’s numbers went down after the debate - but went BACK UP again. Like H. L. Mencken said.

 

[Monello]

If this tire salesman gets it, why doesn't the rest of America see that we need to be unburdened by this woman?

 

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[SamSpade]

Ummm - evidently whoever tweeted that can't read a graph. It says exactly the opposite.

 

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[GURPS]

WAYNE ROOT: The Biggest Gaslighting Scam Yet: Kamala Isn’t Winning. She’s Doing Worse Than Biden. Trump is Winning a Landslide. Here is the Proof.​

Here’s the proof the polls you’re currently seeing in the mainstream media are total fraud. For years, the most accurate poll in the country has been The Democracy Institute, run by Patrick Basham.

Democracy only polls “likely voters,” as opposed to other biased pollsters (friendly to Democrats) who choose to poll any registered voter who picks up the phone. Up to one third of registered voters are not going to vote. And they skew dramatically Democrat.

These other polls also oversample Democrats. That’s how they have come up with such absurd numbers for Kamala Harris. Of course, if you poll mostly Democrats, you’ll come up with ridiculous fake numbers in favor of the Democrat candidate.

Here are the exact numbers used by Democracy versus other pollsters. Democracy used Democrats +2 for this latest poll. Meaning pollster Basham gives Democrat voters a +2 point edge - the exact number for the 2020 presidential election. Patrick believes the true number today is Democrats +1. But he is always cautious, so he stuck with +2.

But the polls you’re seeing now in the media claiming Kamala is suddenly popular and gaining on Trump, or beating Trump, are using Democrats +6, Democrats +8, and in some cases a ridiculous Democrats +10. This absurd, ridiculous, biased fantasy produces a “Kamala Miracle.” Voila- suddenly, she is popular.

In the latest 100% honest, ethical, accurate Democracy Institute poll, with the electorate at +2 edge for Democrats, Trump is winning by a landslide of 8 points.

I use the word “landslide” because no Republican has won any presidential election by this big a margin since Ronald Reagan- almost half a century ago.

And of course, only the Electoral results matter. If Trump even loses the popular vote by 1 point, he’d almost certainly win the election with a large electoral victory.

In Basham’s Democracy Institute poll, Trump wins by 8 points because he is winning by a gigantic landslide with white voters, male voters, independents, and seniors.

Kamala is barely leading among young voters. Trump wins with Hispanics 51% to 48%, suburban voters 49% to 47%, and takes 22% of black votes.

The largest voting group in the entire electorate is working class whites. Trump wins 75% of their vote.

Trump wins by a whopping 35 points among men, while Kamala wins with women by only a razor-thin 3 points.

It’s also important to note, 62% of all voters believe Kamala Harris lied about Biden’s health.

 

[stgislander]

The 50% threshold has always been a problem for Trump.

 

[GURPS]

Nate Silver's Latest Projection Will Not Please Kamala's Army of Childless Cat Ladies​

Can Kamala Harris win? Based on polling right now and the media's pervasive interference on her appalling record, she probably could. She has erased the Democratic Party’s deficits in voter enthusiasm and fundraising—for now. Yet Nate Silver tossed a hand grenade into the middle of this parade since Democrats remain behind in one crucial content: the Electoral College.

The popular vote does not matter, and when it’s this close, and Donald Trump is the candidate—the advantage goes to the Republicans. Silver then listed scenarios that could screw over or benefit either candidate, but the fact is that Harris is getting a ‘she’s different’ bump in the polls. It’s not nearly enough to overcome Trump’s lead in the Electoral College. The former president has a 61 percent chance of winning this election. Silver then relays what factors he’s plugging into his model (via Silver Bulletin):

…she’s a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections. Harris isn’t unique in this regard: Biden also had a large Electoral College-popular vote gap in 2020, barely winning several tipping-point states despite winning the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. But this is still a problem for Democrats, and we show Harris as having a slightly wider popular vote-Electoral College gap than Biden had in his version of the forecast.
[…]
Since Harris isn’t president herself, she doesn’t get the same bonus that Biden did. And we think that makes sense. Other things being equal — that is, notwithstanding Biden’s terrible polling against Trump and voter concerns about his age — you wouldn’t want to replace an elected incumbent president who won the same matchup last time with his VP. So whereas Biden was a roughly 2-point favorite in the popular vote in our fundamentals model, it has the Harris-Trump matchup as almost an exact tie in the popular vote. This could shift upward or downward in the remaining days of the election based on the economic data the model collects.
So basically, the model does this:

• Take the current polling-based snapshot, which shows Trump ahead by only 0.4 points.
• Adjust for the convention bounce, which puts Harris very slightly ahead.
• Regress toward the fundamentals-based prior, which shows a tied popular vote. (The prior currently gets 25 percent of the weight and it will fade to zero by Election Day.)

That’s how we get to a forecast of Harris winning the popular vote — although by only 0.6 percentage points. However, as you can see, she’s not a favorite in the Electoral College. Instead … drumroll … she has a 38 percent chance, compared to 61 percent for Trump and roughly a 1 point chance of no Electoral College majority because of a 269-269 tie (or RFK Jr. earning some electoral votes).

 

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[BOP]

It's beyond delusional that Harris is polling as high as she is in ANY category, other than abortion. That is their seminal, anchor, keystone, whatever you want to call it, issue. That, and the whole trans thing, as well as the former slaves languishing about in our country because they are so disadvantaged they can't do nuffin.

Well, that, and the deep, abiding, cancerous hatred they have for the rest of us; for which, Trump is the subject of that bile. Remove him, and they'll surely come after us.

 

[BOP]

My not-so-humble opinion: the leftist old sh*ts are more delusional and nasty than their younger comrades. I'm not sure what they're afraid of at this point in their lives; Trump wouldn't take away their social insecurity, their medicare, and their private insurance. No, Congress decimated that a long time ago. They've been treating SS as their own private slush fund for so long that there's little doubt it's probably as far in the red as the national debt itself.