Election Night Electoral Vote Primer

Tilted

Tilted

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In my opinion, these are the state results that matter tonight, listed in the order that the polls close in those states.

7:00 PM EST
Indiana - McCain should win here - If he doesn't it portends a large Obama win of 350+ electoral votes.
Virginia - Here is where we should get the first meaningful indications of what's going on. If Obama wins Virginia, then Obama will most likely win the election. There is still an electoral formula for a McCain victory, but it's asking for a lot of things to fall his way.

7:30 PM EST
West Virginia - McCain needs a win here also. McCain could win without WV's 5 electoral votes, but a loss here would likely be a bellwether for what happens in some later states that McCain needs to win.
Ohio - Ohio is the most pivotal state. If Obama wins in Ohio, McCain is on life support and his hopes hinge on a miracle win in Pennsylvania. If McCain adds a win in Ohio to wins in Virginia and WV, he becomes a slight favorite to win a close election.

8:00 PM EST
Pennsylvania - McCain should lose here, but if he were to win Pennsylvania he can start picking out White House furniture. Obama would then be the one on life support.
Missouri - Another must win for McCain. A loss here and McCain is in trouble. He's still got hope IF he won Virginia AND Ohio, but that hope is slim.
Florida - Once again a must win for McCain. If he loses here he's done, regardless of whether or not he won Virginia, Ohio and Missouri.

IF McCain wins Missouri, Florida, Virginia, WV and Ohio, then we have a dog fight that comes down to four states - New Mexico (9:00 PM EST), Colorado (9:00 PM EST), Iowa (10:00 PM EST) & Nevada (10:00 PM EST). McCain would need any 2, with New Mexico and Colorado being his best chances. This is an unlikely scenario, but within the realm of possibility. The key factor is the turnout of young voters. McCain just can't overcome an enormous turnout by that group.

The bottom line is that Obama has a lot of margin for error, the only state that he really has to win is Pennsylvania. McCain has almost no margin for error and has to win tough races in Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, WV and Florida just to stay in the fight.
 
P

Pandora

New Member
This really could go either way. I keep thinking of the Gore and Kerry hype and remembering how I wondered if I should even make an effort to go and vote. In 2004, life was very busy and highly stressful, so sitting the election out was up for serious consideration, of course, I didn't. I went and voted but I haven't forgotten the 2000 and 2004 hype.... ESPECIALLY 2004.... I remember that very well.


W.V. will go to McCain, I am certain of that.

I even think McCain has a very strong chance in PA. I am even going to toss out a guess and say I think McCain has a very strong chance at Missouri as well.

Fox just reported that Democrats are more likely to participate in exit polls - I have always believed that and that Republicans don't really bother with that sort of thing.
 
Tilted

Tilted

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Nanny Pam said:
I guess I should have asked if this is correct. Is this fact?
Click to expand...

If you include enough 'ifs' then almost anything you say is correct. So, if I included enough 'ifs' then I am certain it is correct. If it is not, it is only because I left out an 'if' somewhere.
 
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