Election outcome odds

gunsmoke

Active Member
Another trend that continues. The odds for a Trump win get worse. The odds of Trump winning the popular vote are no almost zero.

538 has Trump chances of electoral college victory at 10% Trumps odds of winning have been cut in half since Oct 1. (Again for those whose still don't understand, Trumps odds of winning were increasing as election day drew closer.)

538 puts Trumps chances of a popular vote victory at 3%. (IF Trump wins...and that IF seems to get larger every day...it will be a split victory again. The majority of Americans do not approve of Donald Trump. Trump created his own bed.)


Realclearpolitics has a an avg betting odds chart: On Sept 1 odds were 50/50. Today Biden is favored by +29.8% (64.4 vs 34.6)

The Economist puts Trumps chances of an electoral college victory at 4% and his chances of winning the popular vote at less than 1%. (The Economist's model does seem a bit rosy)

One thing I find interesting: Fox does not offer a poll average or an electoral college map. Hell you have to do a search for the word "Poll" if you want to find a reference.

2020 Presidential Election Odds & Senate Race Predictions: 70% Of Money Bet Backs Trump Over Biden

US Election Latest Odds: Halloween betting looks scary for Trump

Does this mean Trump can't win? No.

But his chances are shrinking by the day.
 

BOP

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Another trend that continues. The odds for a Trump win get worse. The odds of Trump winning the popular vote are no almost zero.
What are the odds your head will explode the day Trump is declared the winner?

152828
 
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