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EmptyTimCup
Guest
Mid-Day Alerts for August 16: Facebook Inc. (FB), Coinstar Inc. (CSTR), The Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc. (PLCE)
Thursday, August 16th, 2012 | Filed under Breaking News,Internet | Posted by Lydia Smith
Shares of Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB), the social networking giant, are down sharply in today’s trading.
At last check, FB shares were trading 4.98% lower at $20.15, with volume up from daily average of 30.89 million to 110.26 million. The stock touched a new all-time low of $19.69 in today’s trading. FB shares are now down nearly 47% since their May 18 IPO price of $38 per share.
FB shares are falling today as the first lock-period expired, enabling some insiders to sell their shares. Following the expiration of the first lock-up period, some 271 million additional FB shares are now available for sale.
rats fleeing a sinking ship
IMHO in 5 yrs, facebook will be MySpace of today
Thursday, August 16th, 2012 | Filed under Breaking News,Internet | Posted by Lydia Smith
Shares of Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB), the social networking giant, are down sharply in today’s trading.
At last check, FB shares were trading 4.98% lower at $20.15, with volume up from daily average of 30.89 million to 110.26 million. The stock touched a new all-time low of $19.69 in today’s trading. FB shares are now down nearly 47% since their May 18 IPO price of $38 per share.
FB shares are falling today as the first lock-period expired, enabling some insiders to sell their shares. Following the expiration of the first lock-up period, some 271 million additional FB shares are now available for sale.
rats fleeing a sinking ship
IMHO in 5 yrs, facebook will be MySpace of today
Tilted
..
This is what I, and I suspect a fair number of other (long-term) investors, have been waiting for - for the lock-up periods to start expiring. Facebook had flooded the market with supply from the beginning, so much so that it seemed mostly able to overcome the enormous hype. But with the lock-ups expiring, there's even more supply (theoretically) coming onto the market. It represents a significant test for the stock price. With a larger float (and even more to come), we can feel more comfortable that the supply is enough to overcome the hype and the shares are seeing truer valuations based on the Facebook's operations and risks and potential going forward.
All things considered, it seemed as though Facebook shares held up fairly well yesterday - a bigger drop was certainly possible (and we've seen large drops from first lock-up periods expiring before). It made me feel comfortable dipping my toes in the water this morning. There's still downside risk (and there's a lot more share supply to come, which could be a bit scary), but considering the upside potential from this point and with the mindset that this is a long-term play for me at this point (i.e. I won't be too worried about what the stock price does in the short-term) - I thought the valuation was pretty attractive. I don't expect all spec plays to pan out, I just expect to make them at attractive risk-reward price levels.
The most recent earnings report wasn't blockbuster, but it wasn't bad either - and there were some key metrics that I thought were positive looking forward. I considered buying shares right after the report (i.e. the dip that came after it), but I'm glad I waited and got it at a more comfortable valuation.
Tilted
..
Okay, so you where do you think the stock price will be in 6 months or 2 years? I keep asking these questions but I don't get any answers.
And is this based on something you see in Facebook's operations or results, or fundamental flaws you see in their strategy, or on a hunch that Facebook as a cultural phenomenon is just a fad?
What exactly does the President have to do with Facebook?
FB is about to break below $19...talk about catching a falling knife.
At a p/e of 66-68 you thought the valuation was "pretty attractive"? 66-68 is about 4-5 TIMES the pe of the S&P 500...What do you consider a screaming buy? A pe of 40???
Just because a stock has lost 50% doesn't make it cheap.
Tilted
..
The stock price fall isn't a result of declining performance, it's a revaluation from an initially overpriced IPO - there's a big difference between that and a 'catching the falling knife' of a stock price plummeting as a result of the underlying business struggling.
And the P/E at $19 is not 66, it's closer to 40 or 50 depending on how you consider the earnings. And we aren't talking about an old, established operation with limited organic growth potential. We're talking about a company in its infancy that has only just begun to tap potential revenue streams - we're talking about Google around the time it went public (what was it's P/E then?). You can't value old blue chips and young, large-potential, companies the same based on P/E. That's how people have missed out on all the great investments of our (and past) generation(s). The valuation has to make sense based on downside and upside potential. Plenty of people paid a lot higher multiple for potentially up-and-coming companies and made a great deal of wealth as a result. I didn't buy Facebook at or near the offering price because the downside risk seemed too great to me. At this point, the downside risk is much more limited and the upside potential remains pretty large.
If you assess potential equity investments based solely on P/E, then you're in trouble. I could point to a number of low P/E stocks that I wouldn't touch. Not all of my investments or trades end up making money, but my batting average is pretty good - and I understand markets well enough to know that's all you can hope for (and work toward).
EDIT: And I'd ask you the same question I've asked others, where do you think FB stock will be in 6 months or 2 years?
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EmptyTimCup
Guest
Okay, so you where do you think the stock price will be in 6 months or 2 years? I keep asking these questions but I don't get any answers.
And is this based on something you see in Facebook's operations or results, or fundamental flaws you see in their strategy, or on a hunch that Facebook as a cultural phenomenon is just a fad?
In My Humble Uneducated Opinion - Facebook's business model is based on people posting every sandwich they eat, ever trip to the crapper, every boring pet shot, pages for their pets - yes this the extreme description on Facebook ..... women keep up with family members, guys post drunken party pics ....... all supported by Advertisement Revenue
I post in one of the other threads, FB has lost GM [maybe not a great loss] and something greater that 50% of all ads go Unclicked
I think a large chunk of PAST Growth was Farmville, Mafia Wars [I got caught up in that hot mess for a while, till that game was revamped - in an obvious drive for more in game purchases - as which point I bailed] and some other games that have peaked - I had gotten off of facebook, but had to reactivate to retrieve some Cydia Store purchases [that is the App Store for Jail Broken iPhones] - after I had to restore my iPhone to factory defaults - after a new iOS update
I really do not have much faith in FB's advertising business model - Zynga is in trouble, now that Zukerbreg is a billionaire and his companies financials are public, the revenue stream is going to be a constant discussion every quarter, and advertisers are going to realize they are not getting a good return on investment ..... they will pull out, or demand lower prices .... further driving FB down .....
I am not sure since the Dot Com Boom of the late 90's, if Advertising has every been a good LONG Term Business model, for people purchasing advertising space
as someone who remembers the internet in 1995 - where there was minimal advertisement - and remembers when Banner ADS came along
I have learned to look past the noise and read the content ..... I wonder if it hasn't been done for so long now - banner ads - that it is just a thing companies do when I go online to purchase something - I already know what I want .....
..... the only place I browse around and compare items is NEWEGG comparing video cards and hard drives - but I have already decided what I want by reading
a print magazine ... I know how Analogue - Maximum PC - I maybe look at the website to see if there is anything newer, but by the time I logon to newegg.com, I already made up my mind ....Amazon.com ........ love books, although I cannot read them, like I can in a Borders - I have gotten to visiting, Barnes and Nobel finding a new book, use the Amazon App on my iPhone, on B&N's free wireless, look up the book I want and make the 'online' purchase on my iPhone and go home
ok I have wandered around a bit ......
Tilted
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In My Humble Uneducated Opinion - Facebook's business model is based on people posting every sandwich they eat, ever trip to the crapper, every boring pet shot, pages for their pets - yes this the extreme description on Facebook ..... women keep up with family members, guys post drunken party pics ....... all supported by Advertisement Revenue
I post in one of the other threads, FB has lost GM [maybe not a great loss] and something greater that 50% of all ads go Unclicked
I think a large chunk of PAST Growth was Farmville, Mafia Wars [I got caught up in that hot mess for a while, till that game was revamped - in an obvious drive for more in game purchases - as which point I bailed] and some other games that have peaked - I had gotten off of facebook, but had to reactivate to retrieve some Cydia Store purchases [that is the App Store for Jail Broken iPhones] - after I had to restore my iPhone to factory defaults - after a new iOS update
I really do not have much faith in FB's advertising business model - Zynga is in trouble, now that Zukerbreg is a billionaire and his companies financials are public, the revenue stream is going to be a constant discussion every quarter, and advertisers are going to realize they are not getting a good return on investment ..... they will pull out, or demand lower prices .... further driving FB down .....
I am not sure since the Dot Com Boom of the late 90's, if Advertising has every been a good LONG Term Business model, for people purchasing advertising space
as someone who remembers the internet in 1995 - where there was minimal advertisement - and remembers when Banner ADS came along
when I go online to purchase something - I already know what I want .....
..... the only place I browse around and compare items is NEWEGG comparing video cards and hard drives - but I have already decided what I want by reading
Amazon.com ........ love books, although I cannot read them, like I can in a Borders - I have gotten to visiting, Barnes and Nobel finding a new book, use the Amazon App on my iPhone, on B&N's free wireless, look up the book I want and make the 'online' purchase on my iPhone and go home
ok I have wandered around a bit ......
No problem with that.
I won't respond to each of the ideas you expressed, unless you want me to of course, but I get it - I get the headwinds with regard to Facebook. In different environments, I've pointed out (and discussed) many of them myself. The dynamic regarding Mr. Zuckerberg retaining essentially complete control of the company, and its major decisions and strategy going forward, is a very important one. It's something I think I cautioned people regarding when I was posting details regarding the IPO. It's something I've tried to make sure that other people I know understood before they got too far along considering an investment in Facebook. I'm still not sure, for my own sake, whether I consider it a net positive or a net negative.
I would make a brief comment on the GM advertising thing though. I think that's been a little blown out of proportion. There are all sorts of concerns regarding this type of advertising, and it's something I've contemplated a lot dating back to before the dot.com bubble. But with specific regard to GM's decision, at the same time it announced that it was going to stop doing Facebook ads it announced that it wasn't going to run ads during the Super Bowl either. I don't think that means the NFL's ad model is inherently flawed or doomed. The announcement was part of a significant shift in how GM was going to spend ad dollars. It also announced a huge deal to sponsor Manchester United (which apparently has a large Facebook presence, so GM may be getting some Facebook ad benefit that way). The point being, GM didn't just drop Facebook advertising, it shook up its advertising focus more broadly to some extent. And, btw, the marketing chief that was responsible for those decisions / announcements has since been let-go / resigned. I wouldn't guess that was because of those decisions, but who knows for sure?
MMDad
Lem Putt
I can't help remembering the tech bublle and how everyone wanted to jump on the next great IPO. Wasn't Yahoo huge?
Facebook is servers and ideas, nothing more. Their value is not based on anything tangible. They are extremely vulnerable to the public moving on to the next big thing.
They might make it, but the risk is too high for me. And that's coming from someone who gambled (and lost) on GM stock.
Facebook is servers and ideas, nothing more. Their value is not based on anything tangible. They are extremely vulnerable to the public moving on to the next big thing.
They might make it, but the risk is too high for me. And that's coming from someone who gambled (and lost) on GM stock.
C
czygvtwkr
Guest
So what are facebooks untapped revenue streams? Other than some brainstorming I have yet to see any plans. One could argue that GM has many untapped revenue streams if they branch out from automobiles to internet, realestate, or mobile phones.
I don't think facebook knows the answer to this question themselves and that is why their stock price has been sinking since the IPO.
CrashTest
Well-Known Member
Nothing. His ideologies have a lot to do with "classical capitalists", who actually build stuff, either doing it overseas, or not doing it at all.
acommondisaster
Active Member
I'm sticking with my original thoughts. Penny stock. Like Tilted said, I don't use Facebook for purchases, I don't even notice the ads. The only thing that FB may wind up making money on, is selling the info they get from data mining everyone's account.
FB is second generation social networking. It's like the current hybrid cars - they were great when they were the only kids on the block, but now that regular cars are getting similar gas mileage at half the price, they don't get repeat buyers. FB will be replaced by the next new thing. I mean seriously, who still has myspace? Prodigy? AOL?
FB is second generation social networking. It's like the current hybrid cars - they were great when they were the only kids on the block, but now that regular cars are getting similar gas mileage at half the price, they don't get repeat buyers. FB will be replaced by the next new thing. I mean seriously, who still has myspace? Prodigy? AOL?
acommondisaster
Active Member
Data mining.
TPD
the poor dad
For what it is worth, I deactivated my FB account last week. 
As a common stock investor, FB is not my style. The company does not meet my criteria - 15% annual earnings growth for the last 5-10 years, 15% growth for the next 5 years, p/e of 15-20, just to name a few. I believe FB is purely a speculative move, not a long term buy and hold like AFLAC for instance. That being said, I do occasionally make a speculative trade - Ford at $4 was one of those gambles, which unfortunately I did NOT sell when it reached $18...
As a common stock investor, FB is not my style. The company does not meet my criteria - 15% annual earnings growth for the last 5-10 years, 15% growth for the next 5 years, p/e of 15-20, just to name a few. I believe FB is purely a speculative move, not a long term buy and hold like AFLAC for instance. That being said, I do occasionally make a speculative trade - Ford at $4 was one of those gambles, which unfortunately I did NOT sell when it reached $18...
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EmptyTimCup
Guest
Is Mark Zuckerberg in over his hoodie as Facebook CEO? 
Facebook's stock price slide has raised doubts about Mark Zuckerberg's role as CEO. Some say he should hand the reins to a more seasoned executive.
The deepening slide in Facebook Inc.'s stock is fueling talk once considered implausible on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley.
Should Mark Zuckerberg, the social media visionary but neophyte corporate manager, step aside as CEO to let a more seasoned executive run the multibillion-dollar company?
In that scenario, Zuckerberg would remain as the creative force propelling Facebook's technological innovation. But the 28-year-old would cede the CEO title to someone better suited to overseeing operations and building rapport with finicky investors — mundane but essential duties for which Zuckerberg has shown little appetite or aptitude.
"There is a growing sense that Mark Zuckerberg, talented though he may be, is in over his hoodie as CEO of a multibillion-dollar public company," said Sam Hamadeh, head of research firm PrivCo. "While in many cases a company founder can, and does, grow into the job, things are happening so quickly that there is precious little time here for Zuckerberg to do that."
Doubts about the Facebook founder intensified Thursday as the stock closed below $20 for the first time. The shares, which slipped to $19.87, have shed nearly half their value since Facebook's disastrous initial public offering three months ago.
Thursday's selling was driven by the expiration of provisions that had barred Facebook's venture capital backers from unloading their shares. Trading volume was abnormally heavy, a sign of the fury with which some of the company's earliest investors ran for the exits as soon as they could
Facebook's stock price slide has raised doubts about Mark Zuckerberg's role as CEO. Some say he should hand the reins to a more seasoned executive.
The deepening slide in Facebook Inc.'s stock is fueling talk once considered implausible on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley.
Should Mark Zuckerberg, the social media visionary but neophyte corporate manager, step aside as CEO to let a more seasoned executive run the multibillion-dollar company?
In that scenario, Zuckerberg would remain as the creative force propelling Facebook's technological innovation. But the 28-year-old would cede the CEO title to someone better suited to overseeing operations and building rapport with finicky investors — mundane but essential duties for which Zuckerberg has shown little appetite or aptitude.
"There is a growing sense that Mark Zuckerberg, talented though he may be, is in over his hoodie as CEO of a multibillion-dollar public company," said Sam Hamadeh, head of research firm PrivCo. "While in many cases a company founder can, and does, grow into the job, things are happening so quickly that there is precious little time here for Zuckerberg to do that."
Doubts about the Facebook founder intensified Thursday as the stock closed below $20 for the first time. The shares, which slipped to $19.87, have shed nearly half their value since Facebook's disastrous initial public offering three months ago.
Thursday's selling was driven by the expiration of provisions that had barred Facebook's venture capital backers from unloading their shares. Trading volume was abnormally heavy, a sign of the fury with which some of the company's earliest investors ran for the exits as soon as they could
acommondisaster
Active Member
I read that article this morning on Drudge - interesting. I've always thought that he was a pompous ass, and the movie solidified that view for me. Facebook has always been his little playground, where he has put his political leanings into action - banning and deleting conservative posts and people (most recently Huckabee's call for a day of Chick Fila support). The company has made very unpopular changes, even when the majority of users were unhappy with the changes (ie the Timeline).
Just because someone has a good idea and can put it together doesnt mean they can run a company - Zuckerberg is a shining example. He and his partners have proved that they were less interested in their company and more interested in what they could get for themselves (ie his partner giving up his US citizenship to avoid taxes) - not all that untypical of many 20somethings.
Just because someone has a good idea and can put it together doesnt mean they can run a company - Zuckerberg is a shining example. He and his partners have proved that they were less interested in their company and more interested in what they could get for themselves (ie his partner giving up his US citizenship to avoid taxes) - not all that untypical of many 20somethings.