Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path
The final NPR Electoral College map analysis shows Democrat Joe Biden going into Election Day with the clear edge, while President Trump has a narrow but not impossible path through the states key to winning the presidency.
Among states leaning or likely to go in a particular candidate's direction, Biden leads by 279 electoral votes to Trump's 125. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win a majority of the votes available — and the presidency.
That means even if Trump were to win all of the toss-up states, he'd still come up 11 electoral votes short and would need to win over at least one state currently leaning in Biden's direction. The Trump campaign has its eyes on Pennsylvania.
This month, we moved Arizona from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up; Texas — after much hesitation — from Lean Republican to Toss-Up; Montana from Likely Republican to Lean Republican; and New Hampshire from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Trump faced a similar predicament in 2016, though if he were to win this time, it would indicate an even greater polling error than was seen in key states four years ago.
The math is daunting but does not rule Trump out entirely. He is within the margin of error in all seven of the toss-up states and the one toss-up congressional district in Maine. (Unlike every other state, Nebraska and Maine are not winner-take-all. They apportion their electoral votes through a combination of statewide vote and congressional district vote.)