Game Show

rstrats

Member
You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?
 

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
PREMO Member
Patron
We went through this scenario in my statistics class but I don't remember the details anymore. Something about your odds of 1:3 and then your odds 1:2 and blah blah nerd nerd nerd. I must have understood it at the time because I aced the class.

I still stand by my logical opinion that odds are always 50/50 - it either is or it isn't. It either will or it won't. :yawn:
 

Merlin99

Visualize whirled peas
PREMO Member
We went through this scenario in my statistics class but I don't remember the details anymore. Something about your odds of 1:3 and then your odds 1:2 and blah blah nerd nerd nerd. I must have understood it at the time because I aced the class.

I still stand by my logical opinion that odds are always 50/50 - it either is or it isn't. It either will or it won't. :yawn:
We can rename this one Schroedingers goat.
 

Kyle

You're beginning to damage my calm!
PREMO Member
Reviewing the Monty Hall problem… I wasn’t aware let’s make a deal was aired in the Middle East. I’m sure there, the goat is more valuable than the car.
 

rstrats

Member
I'm a gambler not a statistician so I'm sticking with my first choice.
What would you do if after your pick of curtain #1 - and before any curtains were opened - the host told you that you could switch to both curtains #2 and #3?
 

TPD

the poor dad
What would you do if after your pick of curtain #1 - and before any curtains were opened - the host told you that you could switch to both curtains #2 and #3?
Hmmm
I would probably stick with #1 because if he's giving me the option to pick both 2 & 3 my reasoning would be yeah, he knows the car is behind #1 so that is why he is letting pick 2 AND 3.
 

rstrats

Member
Hmmm
I would probably stick with #1 because if he's giving me the option to pick both 2 & 3 my reasoning would be yeah, he knows the car is behind #1 so that is why he is letting pick 2 AND 3.
The host is giving you the chance to switch regardless of where the car is even if it is behind 2 or 3.
 

TPD

the poor dad
The host is giving you the chance to switch regardless of where the car is even if it is behind 2 or 3.
yeah but that's not the way I see. My belief is they don't want to give away the car so they do what they can to have you pick the curtain where there is a refrigerator instead.
 

rstrats

Member
yeah but that's not the way I see. My belief is they don't want to give away the car so they do what they can to have you pick the curtain where there is a refrigerator instead.
Now I see that you're just messing with me.
 

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
PREMO Member
Patron
Everyone. This math "puzzle" is old as dirt.
There are odds, and then there's what really happens. If you're playing black jack and you see two deuces face up on the table, you could reasonably presume that your next hit card won't be a deuce. But it could be. Because those other two deuces are somewhere.

There is an old saying: don't change horses in the middle of the stream. When playing cards - gin, for example, or poker - that can be good strategy, or it can hose you but good. And anyone who has watched Let's Make a Deal has seen someone change their door, only to find that the prize was behind the one they originally chose.
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
And anyone who has watched Let's Make a Deal has seen someone change their door, only to find that the prize was behind the one they originally chose.
Agreed, but in that case it wasn't random. The producers and/or staff psychologist determine whether or not to show an empty curtain, I don't think they always did it.

In any case the math problem is easy enough to prove to yourself if you have some time, 3 cups and a ball.
 
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