But this isn’t one of those elections. The polls don’t tell you what you need to know, at least not yet. In most of the key states, neither candidate has reached the 50 percent mark, the point where all you have to do is hold on to the people who already like you, as opposed to persuading or dissuading the ones who don’t. To be sure, the underlying indicators favor a Democrat: unpopular war, uncertain economy, ridiculous gas prices, home foreclosures, not to mention a Republican president who is down to the immediate family when it comes to support. The generic Democrat beats the generic Republican by as much as 15 points in generic match-ups for Congressional seats. But generic candidates don’t run: real ones do, and Barack Obama is running behind the generic Democrat and John McCain is running ahead of the generic Republican, at least if you believe the current polls. I’m happy to bet the mortgage that Democrats will do very well in both the Senate and House races this fall, but I don’t think I’ll find any takers. But I’m not making any bets, at least not yet, as to who will be moving in to 1600 Pennsylvania.
