How It's Done

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Here's an excellent (relatively short) piece on strategy considerations wrt Iran.

Here's an excellent snip wrt "thinking it through":
The United States and the West can win a hot war [against Iran] within months, like they won in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. It is what comes next that is the issue. A third of the Middle Eastern population are Shiite. Any war or collapse of the Iranian regime will make Iraq and Libya look like a walk in an autumn rain.

In all three cases (Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya) U.S. national leadership failed to think it through.

(As an aside, I was "for" Iraq, but only if we had a solid post-Phase III (active combat) plan. We didn't and we continue to see the results of that 15+ years later. I was "for" Afghanistan, but only as "punishment" in response to 9/11 (of both AQ and its Taliban hosts). The Bush administration blew it by succumbing to "mission creep" (e.g., counter-narcotics, nation-building, women's rights, etc.) while the Obama administration blew it by using Afghanistan as "The Good War" to justify its decision to leave Iraq. Both administrations made horrible decisions (and not just in hindsight) and we continue to see the results of these decisions 18+ years later. I was NEVER "for" Libya. Misguided and utterly foolish. If Iraq in 2003 was about "unfinished business," then Libya was all about "woke foreign policy.")

Back to Iran. Here's a snip regarding the thought process of what to do next (with Iran):
In foreign policy, and during fogs of war, signaling is everything. Consider the recent Indian – Pakistani crisis, where both powers bombed the other’s territory. In one of the key factors, both targeted regions and bases with zero casualties.

The Iranian attack seems to follow the same modus operandi. When the strikes happened, I noted on Twitter that given the number of missiles in a volley, it is unlikely that this was a precursor for a greater assault. The largest operational Iranian missiles can reach Haifa, Saudi oil factories, or even Poland and India, given their range.

But it was curious that a mere ten missiles dropped dumb pay loads in a U.S. base where the majority of the soldiers were Iraqi. That meant the mission was strictly targeted for a domestic audience and regime stability. Within hours, confirmations started to pour in.

Here's why Trump's approach (in response to Iran's "dumb missile" launch) is the correct one. He's resisting the temptation the Bush administration succumbed to wrt Iraq 2003:
Ultimately, this remains a political decision. Iran might signal as much as it wants that it wants to restore deterrence and leave it at that [signaled by the parameters of its post-QS "retaliatory" missile strike], but if our side wants to take this opportunity for a regime change, and gives the president the options that would almost certainly lead to a war, then that’s not what anyone can predict.

WRT "How It's Done," here's the penultimate paragraph:
Conservative realism isn’t about “good guys and bad guys.” Those definitions are for simpletons. It is about choosing which regions to prioritize. It is a game of chess, not whack-a-mole. Realists are neither pacifists nor isolationists. They are focused on a greater existential threat of rival great powers like China and to some extent Russia, in regions where we have strategic interests, which are the Asia-Pacific and Atlantic, not some strategic hellhole that won’t change in another 100 years no matter how many gallons of blood we lose or how many trillions we spend.

"Conservative realism" might be a bit redundant, but that's a quibble. Anyway, this is what Trump is thinking. No, I'm not mind-reading; Trump, in both statements and actions (since, forever), is doing just this. There IS a coherent, mature approach to The Trump Doctrine (at least, up until this point) wrt Iran. The same maturity also comes through loud and clear wrt Russia, China, NoKo, NATO "allies," trade, the southern border, etc. It ain't perfect (because we're not perfect and mistakes happen), but Trump is "winning" FAR MORE often than not. Don't fall for the criticisms of the MSM rank amateurs and other Statlers and Waldorfs.*

I highly recommend you click over to read the entire article. The article's title and sub-title are alone worth the click-over. Further, these snips don't do justice to the piece. If you want to begin to understand how mature foreign policy is conducted (as opposed to the wishful/magical thinking type practiced by Bush II and Obama) this is a good place to start.

Back to the author. If you ever stumble across anything this guy writes, stop what you're doing, and spend a few minutes reading.

*Let's add this:

--- End of line (MCP)
 
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Reactions: BOP

glhs837

Power with Control
"Dear Donnie, if I dont do ANYTHING, the Mullahs will string me up and just go nuts attacking everydamnthing that moves and nobody wants that, it's all monkeys and flung pooh everywhere. Let me launch some harmless crap so I can show the movies I promise not to hurt anything, but please let me show the peeps I struck back"
 

transporter

Well-Known Member
"Conservative realism" might be a bit redundant, but that's a quibble. Anyway, this is what Trump is thinking. No, I'm not mind-reading; Trump, in both statements and actions (since, forever), is doing just this. There IS a coherent, mature approach to The Trump Doctrine (at least, up until this point) wrt Iran. The same maturity also comes through loud and clear wrt Russia, China, NoKo, NATO "allies," trade, the southern border, etc. It ain't perfect (because we're not perfect and mistakes happen), but Trump is "winning" FAR MORE often than not. Don't fall for the criticisms of the MSM rank amateurs and other Statlers and Waldorfs.*
--- End of line (MCP)

That is a really interesting summation:

Trump has completely failed wrt to Nork...he's completely failed wrt Russia (which should not come as a surprise)....he's --so far---not accomplished a god damn thing vs China.

Nork is still lobbing missiles....still threatening all their neighbors...Trump handed they political and propagandist victory after political and propagandist victory.

Russia is running roughshod all over the world...

China?? please. Trump hasn't gotten a thing out of them.

Iran?? are you really stupid enough to think this is over? I wonder how the families of those Canadians who died in the plane crash feel about "The Trump Doctrine"? Their loved ones would still be alive if it wasn't for Donald Trump and his incompetence.

Trade....christ our export volume is down....steel is in a slump....soybeans are rotting...

The US is a now an international laughingstock. Our global influence is a shadow of what it was and what it should be. What Bush started, Obama continued, Trump has finished. No one looks to us anymore.

You call this winning???
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
That is a really interesting summation:

Trump has completely failed wrt to Nork...he's completely failed wrt Russia (which should not come as a surprise)....he's --so far---not accomplished a god damn thing vs China.

Nork is still lobbing missiles....still threatening all their neighbors...Trump handed they political and propagandist victory after political and propagandist victory.

Russia is running roughshod all over the world...

China?? please. Trump hasn't gotten a thing out of them.

Iran?? are you really stupid enough to think this is over? I wonder how the families of those Canadians who died in the plane crash feel about "The Trump Doctrine"? Their loved ones would still be alive if it wasn't for Donald Trump and his incompetence.

Trade....christ our export volume is down....steel is in a slump....soybeans are rotting...

The US is a now an international laughingstock. Our global influence is a shadow of what it was and what it should be. What Bush started, Obama continued, Trump has finished. No one looks to us anymore.

You call this winning???
Thank you for the reply.

You state that Trump is failing all over the world. How so? Where is he going wrong with NoKo? How is Russia running roughshod all over the world? Why would you say that Trump has done nothing wrt China?

What are your metrics? As far as my metrics go (which align with the article I linked to) he's doing an excellent job with all three.

WRT Iran, I certainly didn't say "it" was over. In fact, we should probably expect a proxy attack at some point down the road (as Iran did with the Marine Barracks attack in 1983 or the Lockerbie bomb later in that decade).

As far as the Ukrainian airliner shot down, how in your right mind do you pin this on Trump? I think the better approach is putting the deaths on Iran's leadership for its historic aggression and current ineptitude. So, with Iran I think he's doing quite well as well.

International laughingstock? Hardly. We probably will return to being one down the road, but at this point, sorry, nope.

If you want me to take your criticisms seriously, provide a) metrics (your various end states) and b) your suggested ways forward (how we get to your end state). Until then, you're offering nothing in the way of reasonable critique, just complaints.

It's all about statecraft. Not unicorns. Trump's doing a great job with the former; his critics are fixated on the latter.

--- End of line (MCP)
 

itsbob

I bowl overhand
That is a really interesting summation:

Trump has completely failed wrt to Nork...he's completely failed wrt Russia (which should not come as a surprise)....he's --so far---not accomplished a god damn thing vs China.

Nork is still lobbing missiles....still threatening all their neighbors...Trump handed they political and propagandist victory after political and propagandist victory.

Russia is running roughshod all over the world...

China?? please. Trump hasn't gotten a thing out of them.

Iran?? are you really stupid enough to think this is over? I wonder how the families of those Canadians who died in the plane crash feel about "The Trump Doctrine"? Their loved ones would still be alive if it wasn't for Donald Trump and his incompetence.

Trade....christ our export volume is down....steel is in a slump....soybeans are rotting...

The US is a now an international laughingstock. Our global influence is a shadow of what it was and what it should be. What Bush started, Obama continued, Trump has finished. No one looks to us anymore.

You call this winning???
So you're another idiot blaming Trump for Iran shooting down an airliner?

What a piece of sht you are.
 

BOP

Well-Known Member
Here's an excellent (relatively short) piece on strategy considerations wrt Iran.

Here's an excellent snip wrt "thinking it through":


In all three cases (Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya) U.S. national leadership failed to think it through.

(As an aside, I was "for" Iraq, but only if we had a solid post-Phase III (active combat) plan. We didn't and we continue to see the results of that 15+ years later. I was "for" Afghanistan, but only as "punishment" in response to 9/11 (of both AQ and its Taliban hosts). The Bush administration blew it by succumbing to "mission creep" (e.g., counter-narcotics, nation-building, women's rights, etc.) while the Obama administration blew it by using Afghanistan as "The Good War" to justify its decision to leave Iraq. Both administrations made horrible decisions (and not just in hindsight) and we continue to see the results of these decisions 18+ years later. I was NEVER "for" Libya. Misguided and utterly foolish. If Iraq in 2003 was about "unfinished business," then Libya was all about "woke foreign policy.")

Back to Iran. Here's a snip regarding the thought process of what to do next (with Iran):


Here's why Trump's approach (in response to Iran's "dumb missile" launch) is the correct one. He's resisting the temptation the Bush administration succumbed to wrt Iraq 2003:


WRT "How It's Done," here's the penultimate paragraph:


"Conservative realism" might be a bit redundant, but that's a quibble. Anyway, this is what Trump is thinking. No, I'm not mind-reading; Trump, in both statements and actions (since, forever), is doing just this. There IS a coherent, mature approach to The Trump Doctrine (at least, up until this point) wrt Iran. The same maturity also comes through loud and clear wrt Russia, China, NoKo, NATO "allies," trade, the southern border, etc. It ain't perfect (because we're not perfect and mistakes happen), but Trump is "winning" FAR MORE often than not. Don't fall for the criticisms of the MSM rank amateurs and other Statlers and Waldorfs.*

I highly recommend you click over to read the entire article. The article's title and sub-title are alone worth the click-over. Further, these snips don't do justice to the piece. If you want to begin to understand how mature foreign policy is conducted (as opposed to the wishful/magical thinking type practiced by Bush II and Obama) this is a good place to start.

Back to the author. If you ever stumble across anything this guy writes, stop what you're doing, and spend a few minutes reading.

*Let's add this:

--- End of line (MCP)
Awesome post, including the BB honorary degree part. I'm just sorry I'm limited to only one icon.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
So you're another idiot blaming Trump for Iran shooting down an airliner?

What a piece of sht you are.

Oh yeah. Everyone knows if you leave psychotic bullies (or regimes) ALONE, they won't ever hurt anyone else.
That's of course recognizing that said bully hadn't hurt a fly until a week before we killed him.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
You call this winning???

144201



If you want me to take your criticisms seriously, provide a) metrics (your various end states) and b) your suggested ways forward (how we get to your end state). Until then, you're offering nothing in the way of reasonable critique, just complaints.

--- End of line (MCP)

Transporter would not know Statecraft if it bit her in the ass ..... all she knows is ' Orange Man Bad '
 
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