The Playbook has a paragraph on how "It is admittedly a confusing subject," and then goes on to suggest "But if you want to filter out a lot of the noise in the results and focus in on the signal, this morning’s Ron Brownstein piece at CNN is a good one to clip and save for Thursday."
Who is clipping and saving articles anymore, let alone on Thanksgiving? Would you take that person seriously? It's not likely.
To make it worse, Brownstein is already talking about 2024. Here's how the piece is explained:
He identifies a few key trends present in the 2022 results that tell us a lot about 2024:
The two presidential nominees could start out in 2024 with as many as 46 states and D.C. sorted between the two parties. Brownstein argues that given recent trends, Democrats could start with a safe 260 electoral votes and Republicans with a safe 235 electoral votes. Under this scenario, longtime battleground states have become reliably red or blue. With Michigan and Pennsylvania seemingly back in Democratic hands, Florida and Ohio dominated by the GOP, sometimes-blue North Carolina out of reach for Democrats, and perennial GOP target New Hampshire out of reach for Republicans, the list of true toss-ups could be down to just four states worth 43 electoral votes: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
- The red states are getting redder. (See the results for Gov. RON DeSANTIS in Florida or Gov. MIKE DeWINE in Ohio.)
- The blue states are getting bluer. (See Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM’s reelection in California, or what happened in Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts and Washington state.)
- The next presidential election will likely be decided by fewer voters in fewer states.
The electoral college map is so closely divided that you can narrow down the decisive swing votes to a few pockets spread across those four states: “a miniscule number of people living in the tiny patches of contested political ground — white-collar suburbs of Atlanta and Phoenix, working-class Latino neighborhoods in and around Las Vegas and the mid-sized communities of the so-called BOW counties in Wisconsin.”