I am not a statistical or financial guy but....

[limblips]

doesn't this mean there is also a 50 % chance it won't? Isn't there an even chance that anything will occur in a given year? 50% chance I will die, 50% chance tranny will support Trump, 50% chance the world will end due to climate change? In an absolute world, something happens or it doesn't.

There’s a 50% chance recession will hit in 2020, economist says

Yale economist Robert Shiller gives his insight on the economy and inevitable recession.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[vraiblonde]

I never believe these people because they make up crap to grab eyeballs. Keep an eye on things and tell the pundits to pack sand with their "predictions".

 

[Rommey]

Its like weathermen...they have 50% chance of being 50% right 50% of the time...

 

[Monello]

When you buy a lottery ticket, you have a 50% chance of winning. 2 possible outcomes. Win or lose.

 

[Rommey]

When you buy a lottery ticket, you have a 50% chance of winning. 2 possible outcomes. Win or lose.

From a dollar perspective, there's also a tie (break even). You win $2, but the ticket cost you $2, for example.

 

[littlelady]

Great thread.

 

[littlelady]

Its like weathermen...they have 50% chance of being 50% right 50% of the time...

And, they still get paid. That is like the best job, ever.

 

[SamSpade]

doesn't this mean there is also a 50 % chance it won't? Isn't there an even chance that anything will occur in a given year? 50% chance I will die, 50% chance tranny will support Trump, 50% chance the world will end due to climate change? In an absolute world, something happens or it doesn't.

There’s a 50% chance recession will hit in 2020, economist says

Yale economist Robert Shiller gives his insight on the economy and inevitable recession.

www.foxbusiness.com

You're trying to make the case that the if the number of possible outcomes is TWO, then there's an equal chance of either event happening.
That's not even close. If I have a six sided die and 5 of them have the same number and one is not that number - then there's a five out of six chance that number will occur. If I'm playing poker, I do not have a fifty-fifty chance of drawing a royal straight flush - or NOT.

People HAVE fallen off very high buildings or gotten struck by lightning and survived - the two outcomes are NOT equal. In both instances, your likelihood of turning up dead is much greater.

 

[vraiblonde]

You're trying to make the case that the if the number of possible outcomes is TWO, then there's an equal chance of either event happening.
That's not even close. If I have a six sided die and 5 of them have the same number and one is not that number - then there's a five out of six chance that number will occur. If I'm playing poker, I do not have a fifty-fifty chance of drawing a royal straight flush - or NOT.

People HAVE fallen off very high buildings or gotten struck by lightning and survived - the two outcomes are NOT equal. In both instances, your likelihood of turning up dead is much greater.

Statistics schmatistics. The odds are always 50-50 - either it will or it won't.

 

[SamSpade]

Statistics schmatistics. The odds are always 50-50 - either it will or it won't.

Yeah, we're definitely going to be playing dice sometime in our future.

 

[Rommey]

You're trying to make the case that the if the number of possible outcomes is TWO, then there's an equal chance of either event happening.

IF the possible number of outcomes is TWO, then there IS an equal chance that EITHER outcome will happen. Flip a coin and there's a 50% chance it will land on HEADS and a 50% chance it will land on TAILS.

 

[SamSpade]

IF the possible number of outcomes is TWO, then there IS an equal chance that EITHER outcome will happen. Flip a coin and there's a 50% chance it will land on HEADS and a 50% chance it will land on TAILS.

That example is correct. With a normal coin, if you do a thousand trials, you can expect close to an equal number for each.
But the likelihood of an outcome is NOT 50/50 simply because there are two outcomes.
Either it is going to snow tomorrow or it will not.
Either I will win a race against a Ferrari or not.
Either I will win a wrestling match with a lion - or not.
Either I will roll snake eyes 10 times in a row - or not.

There may be two outcomes, but they are not balanced.
Some outcomes are more likely than others, which is the whole point.
It might rain in the Sahara, but it's a desert for a reason - it's not likely.

One of my earliest math presentations I did for a competition in high school included Buffon's needle problem,
which can be used to approximate pi. You can look it up here - it's quite fascinating.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffon's_needle_problem#Estimating_π

 

[vraiblonde]

Either it is going to snow tomorrow or it will not.
Either I will win a race against a Ferrari or not.
Either I will win a wrestling match with a lion - or not.
Either I will roll snake eyes 10 times in a row - or not.

In most situations I like to say probability rather than odds. Supposedly it's the same thing but I think of probability as having information to support it and not just luck, which is how I think of odds.

What are the odds you will win a wrestling match with a lion? 50-50. You either will or you won't.
What is the probability? Low.
It's possible you will win the fight, but not probable.

You're the statistics guy, so I bow to your superior education and experience. This is just my personal criteria and I have nothing better to think about at 9am (8am my time).

 

[SamSpade]

In most situations I like to say probability rather than odds. Supposedly it's the same thing but I think of probability as having information to support it and not just luck, which is how I think of odds.

What are the odds you will win a wrestling match with a lion? 50-50. You either will or you won't.
What is the probability? Low.
It's possible you will win the fight, but not probable.

You're the statistics guy, so I bow to your superior education and experience. This is just my personal criteria and I have nothing better to think about at 9am (8am my time).

Probability is actually only a small part of statistics, but it might be the most essential part.
"Odds" and "probability" are synonyms. Especially the way gamblers use the term.

But the idea of confusing number of outcomes with probability is not as uncommon as you think.
There are a lot of people who think they're the same; what is the probability (odds) that Warren will win the nomination?
Sanders? Biden? Gabbard? They cannot all be "50-50" because there are too many possible outcomes, but the way the problem is worded,
you'd think not only do they ALL have a 50% chance (mathematically impossible) but the weights are all the same. As it happens, people
try to use opinion polls so they can weight the answers. (I don't have a lot of faith in opinion polls - too many ways to get error, and if the models are bad, the numbers are meaningless).

I was reading on a site where the writer simplified it as such - you ask a friend (on the phone) to do something to randomly pick "2" (you assume he is flipping a coin). After he very patiently answers you a thousand times, you notice it is "not 2" about 5/6 of the time. It's reasonable to then assume he is rolling a die, although he didn't tell you. Your question has exactly two outcomes, but the result is not 50-50, because the outcomes on HIS end is not only not two, but on a normal die they are equally weighted.