22AcaciaAve
Well-Known Member
Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1. I hear about Hogan’s approval numbers, yet every Democrat I speak to says they are not voting for him. Some of them like the guy but agree that we need to vote the Democratic ticket now more than ever.
Now I see quite the opposite. Almost every democrat I know has said they will vote for him. Most of them voted for Hillary, hate Trump, but believe that Hogan was at best a moderate who eased up O'Malley's tax grab. And most of them voted for O'Malley not once, but twice because they did not like Ehrlich. It's the same dynamic that Reagan used when he had the support of the "Reagan democrats" who crossed over twice to vote for him. If there was an O'Malley type of candidate with name recognition it might be different, but Jealous has less name recognition than Anthony Brown and will get no support west of Baltimore county or East of the bay. Even the democratic establishment is not enthusiastic about him. Comptroller Franchot has said he will not endorse a candidate, and Montgomery County executive Ike Leggit has been non committal so far. They realize that after Hogan the republicans probably have nobody on their bench to win again and that Jealous far left platform might damage them more going forward. The only real reason for democrats to feel threatened by a Hogan 2nd term is the census will give him control of re-drawing the districts and can change the gerrymandering bias that exists. Even that is not that frightening as the GA can simply support the bill Hogan supported taking that control away from him and giving it to an independent commission. Bottom line is that every poll has Hogan's favorability rating near 70% and his unfavorability at less than 30%. They all have him double digits ahead of Jealous. Unless he gets caught up in some unknown scandal, or makes a horrible campaign mistake, it's going to be very hard for Jealous to beat him.