'Kavanaugh Effect'

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
'Kavanaugh Effect': New Polls Could Spell Doom For Senate Democrats

According to Real Clear Politics' average of the key polls, only seven Senate seats are true "toss ups" — and to take control of the chamber, the Democrats have to win all seven. To make matters worse for Democrats, the so-called "Kavanaugh effect" appears to be real and seems to particularly impacting a few of those toss-up seats.

RCP currently gives Republicans 49 seats that are either "safe" or not up for reelection. Prior to the Kavanaugh allegations, that number was 47. Meanwhile, the Democrats safely have 44 seats, which means they need to win all seven of the remaining toss ups to gain the 51-seat majority in the Senate. Post-Kavanaugh, that prospect is looking less and less likely.


:whistle:
 

This_person

Well-Known Member
I have to admit, it bothers me that they're calling it the Kavanaugh effect instead of the "lunatic-acting-Democrat" effect. :shrug: Oh, well.
 

vraiblonde

Board Mommy
Staff member
PREMO Member
I have to admit, it bothers me that they're calling it the Kavanaugh effect instead of the "lunatic-acting-Democrat" effect. :shrug: Oh, well.
They never like to call things what they are. You just did, though. :yay:

When we have government leaders and former leaders calling for violence, yeah, that's not gonna fly. Stalinist psychos - eh, it happens. But when they are being egged on by a major political party....um, we'll be voting against that thanks.
 

transporter

Active Member
'Kavanaugh Effect': New Polls Could Spell Doom For Senate Democrats

According to Real Clear Politics' average of the key polls, only seven Senate seats are true "toss ups" — and to take control of the chamber, the Democrats have to win all seven. To make matters worse for Democrats, the so-called "Kavanaugh effect" appears to be real and seems to particularly impacting a few of those toss-up seats.

RCP currently gives Republicans 49 seats that are either "safe" or not up for reelection. Prior to the Kavanaugh allegations, that number was 47. Meanwhile, the Democrats safely have 44 seats, which means they need to win all seven of the remaining toss ups to gain the 51-seat majority in the Senate. Post-Kavanaugh, that prospect is looking less and less likely.


:whistle:
nice try comrade.

So here is a basic primer on the upcoming midterms:

1. The House is in play. It has been in play and it continues to be in play.

2. The Senate isn't in play. It never really was.

And here is a basic primer on all US elections....

1. The polling data tend to tighten as election date gets closer.

None of the information above should be news to an actual US citizen who is an actual informed voter.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
nice try comrade.

None of the information above should be news to an actual US citizen who is an actual informed voter.

ah yes, the dismissive hand wav'em you are a Russian .... Nice Ad Hominem Attack

you do realize constantly calling an American citizen a 'Russian' / A Bot
just reinforces everyone's evaluation that you are just another partisan hack who does not know wft she is talking about
 
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This_person

Well-Known Member
nice try comrade.

So here is a basic primer on the upcoming midterms:

1. The House is in play. It has been in play and it continues to be in play.

2. The Senate isn't in play. It never really was.

And here is a basic primer on all US elections....

1. The polling data tend to tighten as election date gets closer.

None of the information above should be news to an actual US citizen who is an actual informed voter.
Here's a little more - the House was likely a loser for R's, and is now likely not. The difference between the two parties in how they govern is almost non-existent anymore, though Trump has provided enough leadership to actually get a few things done. Likely, the FAA Reauthorization and the massive budget failure that were recently passed and signed into law are the results of deals made to get the few good things done. Trading some worse for some better, the net result is certainly up to opinion.


Here's even more - the House is never much in play, because parties control who get on ballots, and therefore who will win. The same for the Senate.

If by "polling data tend to tighten" you mean that the difference between R and D tends to get smaller, that's not usually very true in the individual races, just the generic polling (that is meaningless).

Talk to one of those informed voters; they can help you out with what I'm telling you.
 

Rommey

Active Member
According to Real Clear Politics website:
On Oct 3 showed the House to be 206 D / 189 R / 40 Tossup (Pre Kavanaugh confirmation)
On Oct 11 showed the House to be 205 D / 199 R / 31 Tossup (Post-Kavanaugh confirmation)

On Oct 1 showed the Senate to be 43 D / 48 R / 9 Tossup (Pre Kavanaugh confirmation)
On Oct 11 showed the Senate to be 44 D / 49 R / 7 Tossup (Post-Kavanaugh confirmation)
 
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