Md. Gov. Larry Hogan issues ‘stay at home’ order

Goldenhawk

Well-Known Member
But why, when you have common sense? You don't need Fauci or me or LR or anyone to run the numbers for you. You're smart and can do that. You don't need us to look up the data for you.

That's the question I've had all along. Why are you going along with something that defies logic?
Okay, I'll bite. Fauci's numbers are not only logical, but mathematically solid.

If you don't like Fauci, fine, let's just use local info. For two weeks I've personally been running the numbers daily, based on the published historical data from just the state of Maryland. If you take the daily confirmed Maryland cases and deaths, and do some plotting and very simple math, the number of new cases per day and the number of deaths per day are both doubling approximately once every 2-1/2 to 3 days. It's slowing VERY slightly at this point, so let's say things get better, and we get it down to doubling every 3-1/2 days.

"Doubling" - okay, so what? In case that doesn't sound so bad, let's play a quick numbers game. It's exponential. At 3-1/2 days per doubling, after a month, that's 128x the current number. After two months, it's 32,000x the current numbers. We're already at 1,985 cases and 31 deaths. In just 6 weeks the entire state would be infected, and 65,000 people dead. That's the current situation, with all the current social distancing in place. It WILL start to taper off, and won't be quite that bad, but just how ugly it gets is largely a function of how well these extreme measures work..

Second, if you look at the number of Maryland hospitalizations compared to the number of confirmed Maryland cases, again ignoring Fauci, about 26% of confirmed cases presently end up in the hospital (that number has been rising from 23% last week). And about 1.5% of those cases end in death (also rising, from 1.1% last week).

I don't know about you, but a 1-in-4 (real numbers!) chance of ending up hospitalized for 7-14 days (the average at present) is pretty lousy. I'd rather avoid it, thanks, even if I were willing to risk 1-in-66 odds of dying (again, real numbers, not made up).

Finally, please recognize that Maryland's best current prediction is that we'll be about 1300 hospital beds and 500+ ICU beds short by the end of April. In fact, the ICU beds will all be full by about next week. That's going to happen no matter what the distancing can do, because it's a function of already-infected people. So if anytime in the next couple months you or a loved one get in an accident, or have a heart attack or stroke, you're screwed, because every hospital bed will be full. Italy and New York City are already there - just look it up on Google News etc. They've got beds lining the hallways and people are not getting treated because there simply aren't enough medical devices.

This analysis doesn't include anyone else's predictions, but all those numbers pretty much line up with every prediction I have seen.

No matter how you slice it, it's ugly. And yelling back and forth about whether Fauci or Trump or Hogan is an idiot won't fix anything. Let's stop this arguing and start focusing on how to avoid more infections, because that's literally the only thing we have control over right now.
 

LightRoasted

If I may ...
If I may ...

Okay, I'll bite. Fauci's numbers are not only logical, but mathematically solid.

If you don't like Fauci, fine, let's just use local info. For two weeks I've personally been running the numbers daily, based on the published historical data from just the state of Maryland. If you take the daily confirmed Maryland cases and deaths, and do some plotting and very simple math, the number of new cases per day and the number of deaths per day are both doubling approximately once every 2-1/2 to 3 days. It's slowing VERY slightly at this point, so let's say things get better, and we get it down to doubling every 3-1/2 days.

"Doubling" - okay, so what? In case that doesn't sound so bad, let's play a quick numbers game. It's exponential. At 3-1/2 days per doubling, after a month, that's 128x the current number. After two months, it's 32,000x the current numbers. We're already at 1,985 cases and 31 deaths. In just 6 weeks the entire state would be infected, and 65,000 people dead. That's the current situation, with all the current social distancing in place. It WILL start to taper off, and won't be quite that bad, but just how ugly it gets is largely a function of how well these extreme measures work..

Second, if you look at the number of Maryland hospitalizations compared to the number of confirmed Maryland cases, again ignoring Fauci, about 26% of confirmed cases presently end up in the hospital (that number has been rising from 23% last week). And about 1.5% of those cases end in death (also rising, from 1.1% last week).

I don't know about you, but a 1-in-4 (real numbers!) chance of ending up hospitalized for 7-14 days (the average at present) is pretty lousy. I'd rather avoid it, thanks, even if I were willing to risk 1-in-66 odds of dying (again, real numbers, not made up).

Finally, please recognize that Maryland's best current prediction is that we'll be about 1300 hospital beds and 500+ ICU beds short by the end of April. In fact, the ICU beds will all be full by about next week. That's going to happen no matter what the distancing can do, because it's a function of already-infected people. So if anytime in the next couple months you or a loved one get in an accident, or have a heart attack or stroke, you're screwed, because every hospital bed will be full. Italy and New York City are already there - just look it up on Google News etc. They've got beds lining the hallways and people are not getting treated because there simply aren't enough medical devices.

This analysis doesn't include anyone else's predictions, but all those numbers pretty much line up with every prediction I have seen.

No matter how you slice it, it's ugly. And yelling back and forth about whether Fauci or Trump or Hogan is an idiot won't fix anything. Let's stop this arguing and start focusing on how to avoid more infections, because that's literally the only thing we have control over right now.
Predictions don't mean squat. Just ask a weatherman.

This, coronavirus, is a guise to, in a controllable fashion, bring upon a depression which is the result of massive bubbles, massive debt bubbles, at all levels. Private sector. Government sectors. Commercial sectors. You name the sector. If you can't see, then you are blind. This is nothing but a coronavirus. Which always mutates from host to host. Which everyone carries, a coronavirus, with them everyday. Wake the f*ck up! It's not about math. Or which doctor is more believable than another. This is our governments, acting in unison, to control the population using scare tactics and absolute rule. Stand up or be run over.
 

Bann

Doris Day meets Lady Gaga
PREMO Member
Okay, I'll bite. Fauci's numbers are not only logical, but mathematically solid.

If you don't like Fauci, fine, let's just use local info. For two weeks I've personally been running the numbers daily, based on the published historical data from just the state of Maryland. If you take the daily confirmed Maryland cases and deaths, and do some plotting and very simple math, the number of new cases per day and the number of deaths per day are both doubling approximately once every 2-1/2 to 3 days. It's slowing VERY slightly at this point, so let's say things get better, and we get it down to doubling every 3-1/2 days.

"Doubling" - okay, so what? In case that doesn't sound so bad, let's play a quick numbers game. It's exponential. At 3-1/2 days per doubling, after a month, that's 128x the current number. After two months, it's 32,000x the current numbers. We're already at 1,985 cases and 31 deaths. In just 6 weeks the entire state would be infected, and 65,000 people dead. That's the current situation, with all the current social distancing in place. It WILL start to taper off, and won't be quite that bad, but just how ugly it gets is largely a function of how well these extreme measures work..

Second, if you look at the number of Maryland hospitalizations compared to the number of confirmed Maryland cases, again ignoring Fauci, about 26% of confirmed cases presently end up in the hospital (that number has been rising from 23% last week). And about 1.5% of those cases end in death (also rising, from 1.1% last week).

I don't know about you, but a 1-in-4 (real numbers!) chance of ending up hospitalized for 7-14 days (the average at present) is pretty lousy. I'd rather avoid it, thanks, even if I were willing to risk 1-in-66 odds of dying (again, real numbers, not made up).

Finally, please recognize that Maryland's best current prediction is that we'll be about 1300 hospital beds and 500+ ICU beds short by the end of April. In fact, the ICU beds will all be full by about next week. That's going to happen no matter what the distancing can do, because it's a function of already-infected people. So if anytime in the next couple months you or a loved one get in an accident, or have a heart attack or stroke, you're screwed, because every hospital bed will be full. Italy and New York City are already there - just look it up on Google News etc. They've got beds lining the hallways and people are not getting treated because there simply aren't enough medical devices.

This analysis doesn't include anyone else's predictions, but all those numbers pretty much line up with every prediction I have seen.

No matter how you slice it, it's ugly. And yelling back and forth about whether Fauci or Trump or Hogan is an idiot won't fix anything. Let's stop this arguing and start focusing on how to avoid more infections, because that's literally the only thing we have control over right now.

This is daunting to think about.
 

PrchJrkr

Long Haired Country Boy
PREMO Member
Ad Free Experience
Patron
The boss called me this evening. He asked my opinion on sticking it out or getting laid off. I choose work, so I'm calling it a night. Have fun with the revolution. Wave if you pass by. :howdy:
 

Louise

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
You're back, how delightful
I have never been here til now. What a delightful forum. Gives a whole new meaning to trash that gets attention on social media. Social media is the World’s downfall. I say that because the stuff I read here, and elsewhere, would not be said in person. Disgusting. Social media has made everyone think that they are important. The problem is no one socializes, in the true sense of the word, anymore. Sad state of affairs. No one is more important than another person. Social media has become an outlet to people that are not happy with their lives.
 
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SailorGirl

Well-Known Member
I have never been here til now. What a delightful forum. Gives a whole new meaning to trash that gets attention on social media. Social media is the World’s downfall. I say that because the stuff I read here, and elsewhere, would not be said in person. Disgusting.
I merely meant you appeared on the radar yesterday, you quit yesterday, and you're back already. If it's disgusting, why did you come back?
 

Louise

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
I merely meant you appeared on the radar yesterday, you quit yesterday, and you're back already. If it's disgusting, why did you come back?
You should change your name to FunnyGirl. And, thanks for being so concerned about my status here. I never quit because I just joined. Are you bored, or something? For your entertainment...

 
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