Commerce Dept revises economy numbers -- back to 1929...
WH: Economic Data Revised to Include 'Methodological Changes Designed to Better Reflect the Evolving Nature of the U.S. Economy'
In a blog post published this morning, the White House explains why historic economic data has been updated. "The comprehensive revision to the national accounts, which is the first since July 2009, includes additional source data received by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as well as methodological changes designed to better reflect the evolving nature of the U.S. economy," writes Alan B. Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.
"This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a comprehensive revision to the National Income and Product Accounts, covering the full history of data since 1929. The revision showed that the recovery from the Great Recession has been slightly faster than previously reported, with real gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by a cumulative 8.5% from 2009:Q2 to 2013:Q1, compared to the previous estimate of 8.1% growth over that period. Including the advance estimate for 2013:Q2, real GDP has risen by 9.0% since the business-cycle trough in 2009:Q2 (see chart). In addition, real GDP surpassed its pre-recession peak in 2011:Q2, two quarters sooner than was reported prior to the revision, and is 4.4% higher than it was at the business-cycle peak in 2007:Q4," reads the blog post.
The new GDP methodology: What you need to know
U.S. economy over $500 billion larger due to new definitions
The Commerce Department has made changes to how it calculates gross domestic product, designed to have the data better reflect the so-called knowledge economy. The U.S. government adjusted data all the way back to 1929, and other countries have or are about to make similar changes to their data. Read more about the U.S. economy during the second quarter.
At the same time, the government also went back and revised data for the past five years, to reflect more complete as well as additional statistics from a variety of sources, such as the Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
What’s the upshot? The rate of growth hasn’t changed all that much, though there are big shifts in a few time periods. But the level of output is higher — $559.8 billion larger, with $526 billion of that amount due to definitional changes.
— Steve Goldstein
Revised US data paint better picture of economy last year; broader trends little changed
WASHINGTON — The government says the U.S. economy grew at a much faster pace last year than previously estimated. The revised growth figures signal a more sustainable economic recovery and help explain why job growth has accelerated this year.
The economy expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in 2012, up from a previous estimate of 2.2 percent. Consumers and businesses spent more and governments cut back on their spending less.
The updated growth figures reported Wednesday by the Commerce Department are part of comprehensive revisions going back several decades.
The upgrade to 2012 growth helps resolve a disparity that has puzzled economists. Hiring picked up late last year and has remained solid this year. The economy has created more than 200,000 jobs a month on average since last fall.
WH: Economic Data Revised to Include 'Methodological Changes Designed to Better Reflect the Evolving Nature of the U.S. Economy'
'Recovery from Great Recession faster than reported.'
In a blog post published this morning, the White House explains why historic economic data has been updated. "The comprehensive revision to the national accounts, which is the first since July 2009, includes additional source data received by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as well as methodological changes designed to better reflect the evolving nature of the U.S. economy," writes Alan B. Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.
"This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a comprehensive revision to the National Income and Product Accounts, covering the full history of data since 1929. The revision showed that the recovery from the Great Recession has been slightly faster than previously reported, with real gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by a cumulative 8.5% from 2009:Q2 to 2013:Q1, compared to the previous estimate of 8.1% growth over that period. Including the advance estimate for 2013:Q2, real GDP has risen by 9.0% since the business-cycle trough in 2009:Q2 (see chart). In addition, real GDP surpassed its pre-recession peak in 2011:Q2, two quarters sooner than was reported prior to the revision, and is 4.4% higher than it was at the business-cycle peak in 2007:Q4," reads the blog post.
The revision also showed that while the contraction during the Great Recession was slightly less severe than previously reported, it remains the largest decline since quarterly data became available in 1947. Cumulatively, real GDP fell by 4.3% during the recession, less than the 4.7% drop previously reported. The steep drop in economic activity caused by the recession makes it imperative that more work is done to raise economic growth and speed job creation.
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