I think it was HIGHLY unlikely Vindman was going to accept promotion to O-6; in other words, he was headed to the exit regardless. Vindman had two paths that led to the same final/eventual destination.
"Path 1" was if he didn't get selected for O-6. He and his allies in the Dems and MSM would claim retaliation by the Army & Trump (undue command influence, etc.). This would provide these folks ample opportunity to play "OrangeManBad v. 80,000,000."
"Path 2" was to claim essentially the same thing as "Path 1," albeit with a little less oomph. I don't see his announcement today as planned to coincide with the Duckworth stuff, but for the Dems/MSM/#NeverTrumpers it's "sauce for the goose" (get it?).
I'm sure Vindman will get a nice DC job (in DC or close-by) in the hope Biden wins in November. If that happens he comes back into government (maybe even the NSC where he'll double dip). If Trump wins, Vindman stays close to DC and gets a job with Brookings (or the like). Maybe moves on to Harvard or some other bastion of higher education looking to add to its lib creds.
In the near term, Vindman will let a few days/weeks/maybe months pass, but whenever he decides to start mouthing off (and wherever he is) he will let loose loudly b/c he is less bound as a retiree than he was as an officer. He'll be careful not to cross a certain line, but he'll get away with more latitude because a) he's got allies and b) he's small fry. And even if he chooses to be a bit reticent his allies won't be.
One other comment.
His retirement announcement really bugs me in that he announced his retirement after the new O-6 list was published. Unless Army Personnel Command (or whatever it's called these days) has changed its policy, announcing this decision post-list announcement means someone didn't get promoted (i.e., someone who would have been selected had Vindman submitted his retirement prior to the board). As a Foreign Area Officer promotion to O-6 is strictly quota-based as there are a very limited number of O-6 FAO jobs overall. Further, these jobs are assigned (and thus, selections made) based on sub-specialty. And in his sub-specialty there are probably less than one dozen (or so) available jobs worldwide each annual assignment cycle. (By way of comparison, in my last assignment cycle as an O-6 48E FAO there were only six available assignments worldwide!)
Unlike selection for senior service college (e.g., Army War College), there isn't an alternate list (at least, there wasn't when I was in); meaning, it's a zero sum game. So again, unless things have changed, somebody didn't get selected and at least one job will be filled by an O-5 (or someone might get involuntarily extended). Bottom line, not good for a whole host of reasons.
While I don't know for sure I'm fairly certain Vindman was going to announce his retirement whether he was selected or not. Which means he potentially knowingly screwed another officer. (While I was disappointed Vindman got selected his selection was - to me - pretty close to a slam dunk.)
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