NO Blood for OIL - Fracking changed the Game
- Thread starter GURPS
- Start date
RPMDAD
Well-Known Member
Gurps, i could be wrong here, but i think we are exporting all our products overseas and are not using them here, part of the problem i think is refinery capacity and greed on the corps, that are producing it. I totally agree with stay out and let them kill each other, there will never be peace in the middle east.
kwillia
n/a
Exactly. The Cove Point Exportation add-on is exactly that... an addition that allows them to be the major east coast EXPORTATION site for all the natural fuel we produce in our country. It will decrease the amount of fuel kept here because they can make more money exporting it. This will in turn, drive our U.S. prices much higher than people realize.
Good grief. Where to start?.. Could we start with how incredibly dirt cheap refined products are in the US (crappy profit margin)..which is why so many refineries have closed down? Or how about the fact the we have the largest reserves of LNG in the world?..and that means that prices here are ridiculously low while the rest of the world is desperate to buy more for twice the price...The bottom line is ...with virtually a stroke of a the president's pen, this country would become and would remain the dominant energy producer and exporter in the entire world. Bar none...for decades to come. Hell...we are creeping up on that status anyway, even though some 80% of our reserves are "locked down" by Barry and his crew.
RPMDAD
Well-Known Member
Agree with you Gilligan 100%, however, how about giving our country a price break, while we reap in profits from other countries, i don't think that is to much to ask. IMHO
How, exactly..very specifically..does a "price break" get produced? I'm dead serious. I've been in business internationally for almost 30 years now..so I'm not asking a rhetorical question from a typically uneducated point of view. Have you..you personally...even taken the time to research and develop a full understanding of the costs involved in refining gasoline?..and what the the final profit margins are?
I have seen price breaks..I negotiate price breaks on a regular basis and have done so for decades now. But I have NEVER seen nor negotiated a "price break" from any entity that makes 5% profit on their product. I wouldn't dare ask...and they would laugh at me if I did.
Hijinx
Well-Known Member
I agree we should stay out of this mess. Let them kill each other.
"No one wants failed states to become haven for terrorists—and that’s a clear and present danger with the current meltdown in Iraq."
If Iraq becomes a haven for terrorists we know where they are, we know where to bomb, and we have the ability to wipe them out.
I have little fear of their becoming a haven for terrorists, they already are, and the more they gather in one place the easier they are to hit.
I never understood why we never dropped a Jdam on one of their marches or funerals. let them gather and hit them hard.
point being ..... fracking has given us some Independence again
without it, the Price of gas would be up much higher
also I saw a article, we have replaced Russia as top exporter [not sure why we need to export ANY OIL, when we still import 10% - maybe it was LNG er export]
without it, the Price of gas would be up much higher
also I saw a article, we have replaced Russia as top exporter [not sure why we need to export ANY OIL, when we still import 10% - maybe it was LNG er export]
Larry Gude
Strung Out
I disagree.
In the reality that is supply and demand, higher prices reduce demand. As demand falls, suppliers that have their own needs in terms of volume and income they need to make, would start to cut prices. In oil, especially oil, it is not a matter of 'building' and supplying more product. It is a matter of simply open the spigots wider to get prices back down to where people would buy.
And, again, it serves us no good purpose if what we produce goes over seas chasing higher prices while not easing the pain here at home. Increased domestic supply KEPT here, would crash prices, help the economy on a BROAD basis but, again, we have no national energy policy so a natural resource that should be used to promote the general welfare us used for private gain.
LibertyBeacon
Unto dust we shall return
I wish you guys would hurry up and get with the program. This is not about "saving Iraq".
This is about getting the Iraqi "government" to give up some of the billions they have in oil money so the world gets the oil it needs and the U.S. and the Zionists get the weapons they need to kill more humans.
The neocons get another notch in their belt, oil isn't $4/gal at the pump, everyone wins. I can't believe I have to explain this.
We are already involved. There just needs to be a bit more public hand-wringing before the case is made stronger for more involvement.
This is about getting the Iraqi "government" to give up some of the billions they have in oil money so the world gets the oil it needs and the U.S. and the Zionists get the weapons they need to kill more humans.
The neocons get another notch in their belt, oil isn't $4/gal at the pump, everyone wins. I can't believe I have to explain this.
We are already involved. There just needs to be a bit more public hand-wringing before the case is made stronger for more involvement.
and I disagree
.... until Gas was $ 3 bucks a gallon, Fracking and Shale were not resources that could be recovered in a profitable manner when Oil was $ 35 bbl
[maybe fracking was not available ... but Shale cost too much to recover] and the Air force [through congress] banned Shale production in Colorado in the 1990's IIRC
.... until Gas was $ 3 bucks a gallon, Fracking and Shale were not resources that could be recovered in a profitable manner when Oil was $ 35 bbl
[maybe fracking was not available ... but Shale cost too much to recover] and the Air force [through congress] banned Shale production in Colorado in the 1990's IIRC
LibertyBeacon
Unto dust we shall return
No. Gasoline/oil demand is inelastic.
Tilted
..
A few brief points, but I'm happy to discuss any of these more thoroughly with you later if you disagree or are curious:
(1) Fracking does help with the notion of energy independence. But increased domestic production isn't keeping gas prices from being "much higher." It has some effect sure, but petroleum markets remain very global in their dynamics. Oil is pretty fungible and it travels fairly well (read: cheaply). We probably can't produce enough extra oil domestically to have a major impact on global (and thus domestic) petroleum prices in the nearer term - over the next 5 years or so. Again, our increased production has some effect, but other global dynamics still outweigh in importance. If we were going to see significantly lower petroleum prices, we'd need to see reduced demand and increased production elsewhere (or, at least, the expectation of that). Petroleum is very different than, say, natural gas in this regard. The nature of NG markets - e.g., the lack of existing infrastructure to move huge quantities of it long distances - make them more regional in nature. We can fairly easily produce enough NG to keep prices fairly low given current demand.
(2) Even though our increased production of crude oil hasn't brought the price we pay for petroleum products down a lot, it benefits us in a number of ways.
(3) We definitely have not replaced Russia as the top exporter of of oil. We export only a small amount of oil, though that amount has risen significantly in recent months. Generally speaking, it's illegal to export U.S. crude oil. There are some exceptions, and we're up to a couple hundred thousand barrels a day now, but we'd have to change our laws to see major U.S. exports of crude. As it is, we're way down the list even of gross oil exporters.
(3) We're of course still a huge net importer of crude oil. We've fallen behind China as the world's top net importer, but we still import a very large portion of what we use - far more than 10% of our consumption.
(4) We have apparently passed Russia to become the number two producer of oil in the world, and estimates have us passing Saudi Arabia to become the top producer perhaps next year. We'll still be a large importer though because we remain by far the top consumer.
(5) We do export a significant amount of petroleum products (as opposed to crude oil) - something like three million barrels a day gross and one million net.
ofc I cannot find the article, now .... I only saw a headline in passing ... maybe it was LNG or Point 4 we produce, but not export more than Russia
so the general supposition that American Gas prices are less impacted NOW, because of Fracking is Wrong ?
we are more energy independent than 2001 with Fracking and Shale OIL from Canada ?
Tilted
..
My guess would be that they were referring to crude oil production. We (gross) export only a small amount of crude oil, and pretty much all of it goes to Canada. Of course, we net import a large amount of crude oil from Canada.
Refined product prices are impacted by increased domestic crude production - for reasons relating to both regional market dynamics and global market dynamics. But those prices aren't hugely affected. At the end of the day, refined product prices are driven mostly by crude oil prices. And crude oil prices are driven mostly by global dynamics. WTI crude is still a meaningful amount cheaper than Brent crude, e.g., but we aren't talking about 25 or 50% cheaper. And so long as refined products can in theory move (e.g. to places where the refinery input stock is somewhat higher priced crude oil), the refined product discount that a given region might realize as a consequence of slightly cheaper crude oil will be limited.
so yes or no, the point of the OP Article - Fracking has reduced the impact of the situation in Iraq ?
Tilted
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What timing! 
To be clear about a couple of things though: (1) This wouldn't represent the first exports of oil in more than 40 years, that's something the WSJ kind of clears up later in the piece. We've been exporting small amounts of oil to Canada. (2) This isn't a change in the law, it's the granting of one of those exceptions which I referred to earlier. The law provides a number of reasons for which an exception can be approved.
Also, I don't think this will have much affect on, e.g., gasoline prices.
U.S. Ruling Loosens Four-Decade Ban On Oil Exports
To be clear about a couple of things though: (1) This wouldn't represent the first exports of oil in more than 40 years, that's something the WSJ kind of clears up later in the piece. We've been exporting small amounts of oil to Canada. (2) This isn't a change in the law, it's the granting of one of those exceptions which I referred to earlier. The law provides a number of reasons for which an exception can be approved.
Also, I don't think this will have much affect on, e.g., gasoline prices.
U.S. Ruling Loosens Four-Decade Ban On Oil Exports
Tilted
..
Ummm... I'd say to some extent it probably has. I don't think the effect (if you're talking about the prices we pay at the pump) is very large though.
all I have is anecdotal evidence from news reports about how much the price of OIL has spiked internationally - I guess I should look the damn chart up - but for me the local BJ's Gas is still selling at $ 3.55 up from $ 3.51 a week ago .... hardly a huge spike