NOAA predicts busy hurricane season

[AndyMarquisLIVE]

NOAA is predicting 15 storms and 5 major hurricanes.



The scientists say global warming causes there to be fewer hurricanes, not more hurricanes.

 

[Xaquin44]

they said about the same last year and we didn't even have 1 hurricane (or was it the year before) (something like that).

 

[AK-74me]

I'd like someone to explain to me what scientific method they use in predicting hurricanes, because they sure are wrong alot.

 

[Xaquin44]

I'd like someone to explain to me what scientific method they use in predicting hurricanes, because they sure are wrong alot.

numbers in a hat is my guess.

 

[AK-74me]

numbers in a hat is my guess.

Well I just read that they admit that they should only be expected to be 60-70% accurate.

So that very well could be.

 

[AndyMarquisLIVE]

they said about the same last year and we didn't even have 1 hurricane (or was it the year before) (something like that).

There were 2 major hurricanes in 2006.

In 2007, two CATEGORY FIVE hurricanes made landfall as category five hurricanes in Mexico. That was a first.

 

[AndyMarquisLIVE]

I'd like someone to explain to me what scientific method they use in predicting hurricanes, because they sure are wrong alot.

Ocean temperatures, jet stream patterns and wind sheer patterns.

 

[AK-74me]

Ocean temperatures, jet stream patterns and wind sheer patterns.

I know.....that is not really what I was looking for.

 

[MMDad]

I'd like someone to explain to me what scientific method they use in predicting hurricanes, because they sure are wrong alot.

They feed atmospheric data into computer models and it makes an educated guess. It's kind of like the stock market, though: past results are not a guarantee of future performance.

 

[Xaquin44]

There were 2 major hurricanes in 2006.

In 2007, two CATEGORY FIVE hurricanes made landfall as category five hurricanes in Mexico. That was a first.

From NOAA:

NOAA News Online (Story 2634)

"May 22, 2006 � NOAA today announced to America and its neighbors throughout the north Atlantic region that a very active hurricane season is looming, and encouraged individuals to make preparations to better protect their lives and livelihoods."

From Wiki and NOAA"

2006 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly inactive Atlantic hurricane season compared to the 2005 season. It was also unusual in that no hurricanes made landfall in the United States of America"

NOAA link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2006atl.gif

well well .... looks like my guess was right.

(well my second guess of a the year before) (hehe)

edit: the first link of course showing that NOAA talks out of their collective arse.

 

[AK-74me]

They feed atmospheric data into computer models and it makes an educated guess. It's kind of like the stock market, though: past results are not a guarantee of future performance.

Exactly, but it is even less predictable than the stock market.

 

[AndyMarquisLIVE]

From Wiki and NOAA"

2006 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly inactive Atlantic hurricane season compared to the 2005 season. It was also unusual in that no hurricanes made landfall in the United States of America"

The 2005 hurricane season set the bar. We also had more tropical storms, more hurricanes, more major hurricanes, more hurricanes make landfall, more category five hurricanes and more anything else you can think of in 2005 than ever before.

The 2005 hurricane season smashed every single previous record known to man. It's highly unlikely that there will ever be another storm season like that which 2005 brought us. You can't call 2005 the average hurricane season. It was hurricane season on steroids.

 

[Xaquin44]

I didn't even mention the 2005 season .... I just mentioned remembering that the 2006 season was all doom and gloom but was, in reality, nothing.

 

[AndyMarquisLIVE]

I didn't even mention the 2005 season .... I just mentioned remembering that the 2006 season was all doom and gloom but was, in reality, nothing.

It wasn't "nothing." We were just lucky. The ocean currents prevented any storm from getting near the U.S. and the high wind shear in the gulf prevented any hurricane formation there. There were storms out there, but the ocean currents and jet stream patterns kept them away from us.

You can't count on being that lucky every single year.

Psst....Louisiana was hit by a hurricane last year. Humberto, I think. Pooped up out of nowhere and formed almost as fast as Wilma.

 

[LordStanley]

NOAA is predicting 15 storms and 5 major hurricanes.



The scientists say global warming causes there to be fewer hurricanes, not more hurricanes.

So then we can all agree that global warming is a good thing!

 

[Xaquin44]

It wasn't "nothing." We were just lucky. The ocean currents prevented any storm from getting near the U.S. and the high wind shear in the gulf prevented any hurricane formation there. There were storms out there, but the ocean currents and jet stream patterns kept them away from us.

You can't count on being that lucky every single year.

Psst....Louisiana was hit by a hurricane last year. Humberto, I think. Pooped up out of nowhere and formed almost as fast as Wilma.

It's not like I'm saying not to be prepared, I was just saying that when people say things like 'We're in for a lot of hurricanes this year', they are just guessing.

no harm, no foul.

 

[jenbengen]

NOAA is predicting 15 storms and 5 major hurricanes.



The scientists say global warming causes there to be fewer hurricanes, not more hurricanes.

They'll eventually be right if they predict this every year.