Odds question

[Rael]

Recent discussion about odds leads me to this question...

If it is highly likely that Team "A" will beat Team "B" by exactly 7 points from whatever stats they use to build a spread, would they change the odds to 6.5 or 7.5, and why? Or maybe the better question is, why do they have half point spreads in some games and not in all games?

Does avoiding the possibility of a tie increase the revenue potential for the bet? That would be my guess.

There must be a good reason, and certainly enough smarts here on these boards to 'splain it. TIA.

 

[Larry Gude]

As I understand it, the gambling institutions make their money on a commission per bet so, the only thing they need do from there is draw exactly the same amount of money for as against a given bet. Thus the losers pay the winners and the house makes a commission on everyone.
They set the early line with that goal in mind.

So, if the opening line is Redskins giving 1 point and I bet $100 on the Skins, they need $100 to take the Lions and 1 point probably won't do it, so, the line goes up, Redskins giving, say 6. The half point is simply used by them to try and get the money, for and against, equal.

Obviously, they know their business and don't need to adjust the lines very much, only fine tune up until where they stop taking bets on a game. They won't go to 7 from 6.5 unless they have to to draw bets. 7 could draw a flood of late bets. 6.5 makes people think.

Anyone fee lfree to correct what I've got wrong!

 

[Rael]

As I understand it, the gambling institutions make their money on a commission per bet so, the only thing they need do from there is draw exactly the same amount of money for as against a given bet. Thus the losers pay the winners and the house makes a commission on everyone.
They set the early line with that goal in mind.

So, if the opening line is Redskins giving 1 point and I bet $100 on the Skins, they need $100 to take the Lions and 1 point probably won't do it, so, the line goes up, Redskins giving, say 6. The half point is simply used by them to try and get the money, for and against, equal.

Obviously, they know their business and don't need to adjust the lines very much, only fine tune up until where they stop taking bets on a game. They won't go to 7 from 6.5 unless they have to to draw bets. 7 could draw a flood of late bets. 6.5 makes people think.

Anyone fee lfree to correct what I've got wrong!

Interesting, and makes sense. I found it also interesting how most of the spreads were fairly close (a point or less), while some others differed by much more (maybe 3 points). Sounds like it comes down to who's doing the betting with which betting institution. Thanks.

 

[Tilted]

Recent discussion about odds leads me to this question...

If it is highly likely that Team "A" will beat Team "B" by exactly 7 points from whatever stats they use to build a spread, would they change the odds to 6.5 or 7.5, and why? Or maybe the better question is, why do they have half point spreads in some games and not in all games?

Does avoiding the possibility of a tie increase the revenue potential for the bet? That would be my guess.

There must be a good reason, and certainly enough smarts here on these boards to 'splain it. TIA.

Yeah, you are right. I guess different sportsbooks could have different rules, but typically a game that is decided by an amount exactly equal to the spread is a push. All wagers are returned - no one wins money, no one loses money, including the sportsbook.

And Larry is essentially right. Sportsbooks' goal, when it comes to making lines, is just to get even betting on both sides. It isn't really an assessment of likely results in the game (though that factors into it a great deal). In general, a really popular team will tend to be favored by more than they would be if the line was chosen based on game expectations alone. If Dallas is a much more popular team than Arizona, and thus it is likely that more people would bet on them if the line was 'ideal', then they may open at -3 or -4, instead of -2.

But, to you point, all things being equal they would prefer a 1/2 pt spread to reduce the chance of having the bets pushed. When that happens, they don't make their vig. But at the same time, they would rather create the risk of having a push, than end up with lopsided betting on an event. So, if a line of 2.5 would result in 75% of the wagered money ending up on one side of the line, whereas a line of 3 would end up with the wagered money splitting 55%/45% - then they'll live with the even number spread and take their chances that a push happens.

 

[Rael]

Yeah, you are right. I guess different sportsbooks could have different rules, but typically a game that is decided by an amount exactly equal to the spread is a push. All wagers are returned - no one wins money, no one loses money, including the sportsbook.

And Larry is essentially right. Sportsbooks' goal, when it comes to making lines, is just to get even betting on both sides. It isn't really an assessment of likely results in the game (though that factors into it a great deal). In general, a really popular team will tend to be favored by more than they would be if the line was chosen based on game expectations alone. If Dallas is a much more popular team than Arizona, and thus it is likely that more people would bet on them if the line was 'ideal', then they may open at -3 or -4, instead of -2.

But, to you point, all things being equal they would prefer a 1/2 pt spread to reduce the chance of having the bets pushed. When that happens, they don't make their vig. But at the same time, they would rather create the risk of having a push, than end up with lopsided betting on an event. So, if a line of 2.5 would result in 75% of the wagered money ending up on one side of the line, whereas a line of 3 would end up with the wagered money splitting 55%/45% - then they'll live with the even number spread and take their chances that a push happens.

Thanks. I remember some unbelievable spreads with the Pats two years ago (20-plus?). Yet, they consistently beat most of them. Except for one very important one...

 

[BuddyLee]

The more bets the better for the bookies.

The linesmakers aren't saying the Redskins will win by 6.5 points. That's just the threshold whereby an equal amount of bets for the Redskins and Lions will be met. If more bet on the Redskins the line goes up. If more the Lions the line goes down.

 

[Rael]

The more bets the better for the bookies.

The linesmakers aren't saying the Redskins will win by 6.5 points. That's just the threshold whereby an equal amount of bets for the Redskins and Lions will be met. If more bet on the Redskins the line goes up. If more the Lions the line goes down.

Got it. Which also answers the half point question. Thanks.

 

[LordStanley]

I figured it had to do with less pushes, since you cant win/loose by half a point