Glad you asked...
vraiblonde said:
Weekend of slaughter propels Iraq towards all-out civil war
So why not just let them? I'm not completely averse to civil wars, when people are just starting to try and put things together. I know I'm supposed to be horrified by this (according to the MSM) but I think it's the only way to settle it for good. Let the Shia go after the Sunnis - why are they being held back?
I mean, we're trying to get the Iraqis to fight for their own country, and the Shia are "on our side", right? So what's the problem?
First off, no one wants the fight except for the insurgents and their benefactors, aka 'the bad guys', their money men in Syria, Jordan, Iran & Sauid. Iraq, as a nation, does not have trained masses of soldiers who can relaibly go after the bad guys and the Sunnis, as a participant in a civil war, have no forces at all which is why they don't put a stop to the insurgents; they can't.
So, a civil war would reduce down to Joe Shiia with an AK going after Fred Sunni with his AK. Brothers, unlces and fathers would be getting whacked, thereby setting the vicious circle of retribution, revenge and escalation of the violence. That's the kind of mayhem that the old Saddam loyalists may be looking for to create a power vacuum they can fill.
So, look for the violence to increase at least until Saddam is tried and, hopefully, executed. Ideally, his cronies in hiding will be identified, tried in absentia and become completely verbotten to the public, Kurd and Shiia, which they already are, but more importantly, the Sunnis as well.
It doesn't take long to train a man to operate his firearm in concert with his fellows, to be a basic soldier but absent effective command and control and leadership, they can become out of control very quickly. Converesly, it takes time to develop the leadership, the officers, who can lead their men not only to complete objectives but to do it without becoming a disciplined lynch mob.
Now, throw in time for the civilian leadership to mature and grow into effective controllers of the aremd forces.
Iraq is going in the right direction which is counter intuitive to the incease in killings but, think about it; the bad guys are going after more and more innocnets, kids getting candy. They wouldn't risk the alienation if they were winning. I'm not making light of the blood, just looking at what it means.
A civil war lets loose chaos and loses all the ground they've covered, that we've paid for in our blood to help them cover.
It's gonna take time.