On line polling...

[Larry Gude]

...anyone care about the moveon.org shindig?

I can't wait to see what happens.

A Kucinich campaign person:

What that means is this is pure democracy at work

Guess we'll see what the wolves want for dinner and then we can ask the sheep how they feel about it.

The cool thing is the absolute upheaval this could cause in the democratic primary. Howard Dean could, if the 1.6 million moveon members put their money where their keyboards are, overnight have $32 million if he wins as expected and if everybody tosses in $20.

The possibility of the Democratic Party disappearing off the face of the earth because people actually hear what they really want is fascinating.

 

[mrs. katie]

Explain this, what is going on here?

 

[Larry Gude]

Go to...

...moveon.org

They are a vehemently anti-W group that has grown a claimed membership of over 1.5 million like-minded people. They want to use the power of the web to shape politics. Their moto is "Regime Change Here First" or some other jeuvenille fart joke type thing.

They don't like that the powers that be, special interests etc, "decide" who is going to be the democratic nominee for prez in 2004, never mind they are all, each and every one, free to vote for whomever they choose regardless of the "powers that be".

The goal is to have their own primary before Iowa and New Hampshire, have the membership vote over 50% for one person, endorse that person then solicit the membership for funds for that person. Which is EXACTLY what the powers that be supposedly do now.


Theoretically, 1.6 million members will act as one and each send a candidate like Howard Dean, whom the "powers" are declaring unelectable, some money so he can fight on for them, moveon.org, in spite of the system.

It's a classic case of what 16 years would do given the chance to do it. Only these people are not 16. They are adult democrats. Which is the same thing most of the time. Like Howard Dean.

I can't wait!

 

[Surf City Baby]

Originally posted by Larry Gude
...anyone care about the moveon.org shindig?

I don't expect MoveOn.org's "primary" to have much of an effect on the nomination. All this online vote means is, who do MoveOn.org members want to get the nomination? MoveOn.org will endorse one of the candidates, and that endorsement may or may not be worth a lot. Who can say?

BTW, one doesn't have to be a contributor to MoveOn.org, or even a Democrat, or even a liberal, or even a standing member -- one can join three seconds before casting his vote in this "primary." As a result, IMO, this "primary's" not worth much. (Kinda reminds me of my grandmother, Super Prude, changing her registration to Democrat so she could vote in the CA primary for Hart over Mondale, as she was terrified at the prospect of Mondale as president. This was before "Monkey Business," of course. Poor Grandma.)

Originally posted by Larry Gude
The possibility of the Democratic Party disappearing off the face of the earth because people actually hear what they really want is fascinating.

The same can be said of just about any other party, Larry. People hear what they want. I'm re-reading Sinclair's The Jungle; that book is shot through with the message that people hear what they want to. Critical thinking seems to be at a low in politics these days.

 

[smcdem]

I just voted for John Kerry, one of my older brothers likes Dean the funny thing is I am way more liberal than he is!

 

[Steve]

Originally posted by smcdem
I just voted for John Kerry, one of my older brothers likes Dean the funny thing is I am way more liberal than he is!

Thanks for the input.

Larry? Is the $32M for this supposed "primary"? Has anyone seen Dean on TV lately? How is Paul Dean fairing?

With 16 months left until the Election, who is the favorite in your mind for Democratic nominee? Does the Democratic Party have a viable challenge to G.W.?

 

[smcdem]

Dean is the first candidate to show an ad. It broadcasted yesterday and is only showing in Iowa.

 

[Larry Gude]

So...

...who won???

Surf Baby,

I hear you but the point is that the potential of moveon is VERY real. A candidate can go from being totally out of favor with all the usual mechanisms, national donors, large groups like labor, teachers, blacks, gays, whatever, and suddenly have serious money the very next day. I'm not saying it is good or bad just a very serious, unpredictable new way of going around the system which young people typically find very appealing. I compare that to the expressed desires on the site for pure democracy; the only thing more dangerous than totalitarianism.

Every single one of us in every single election has the total freedom to vote for whom we really want. People disgusted with power at all costs chose Nader just enough to help begin the process of recovering from the Clinton years. They made REAL votes.


I did as well. My guy lost, huge. But I voted for the person I wanted. Not the RNC. Not some big money person.

Steve,

The money is based on an organization, moveon, motivating a group to just unload a few bucks, I used $20 as an example, and suddenly making a chosen under dog much more viable.

Hell, if every single person who voted last time (some 100 million) sent me just one dollar even I am viable overnight.

That's why I laugh when people complain about there being to much money in politics. To much? $10 per person who actually bothered to vote? Ha.

Favorite? I love Dean. He may force me to change my avitar. I don't think anyone can REALLY stomach Kerry. I mean, come on. Love his wife though. Leiberman is, well, I dunno. Un-inspiring? Sharpton is a hoot and I hope he gets a speech slot at the convention. Edwards is a trial lawyer supported solely by trial lawyers. Nuff said. Carol? Give that girl a microphone! Dick is gotta be the guy at this point, I guess???

Sleeper: Al Gore is still the favorite in plenty of small polls.

 

[Surf City Baby]

Re: So...

Originally posted by Larry Gude
...who won???

Voting ends tonight at midnight. I don't know when they'll announce the results, but do know that if any one candidate receives 50% of the vote, that candidate will get MoveOn.org's endorsement. (If it's Al Sharpton, I'll vomit, but I think I've nothing to worry about.)

Originally posted by Larry Gude
I hear you but the point is that the potential of moveon is VERY real. A candidate can go from being totally out of favor with all the usual mechanisms, national donors, large groups like labor, teachers, blacks, gays, whatever, and suddenly have serious money the very next day. I'm not saying it is good or bad just a very serious, unpredictable new way of going around the system which young people typically find very appealing.

Serious, yes. Unpredictable, yes. But I see it as merely a different way of working the system, not a way of going around it.

Young people probably find it appealing because they grew up relating to the world on the internet. You and I are used to relating to it via newspaper, TV, and [gasp!] conversation.

The president raised $4M the other night. He has relatively easy access to millions upon millions of dollars through his "Pioneer" system. I see the inner workings of this system every day; I work with several members of his campaign finance team. His fundraising potential is terrifying, no matter his party affiliation. IMO no one should be able to pour so much money into a race for national office.

With one candidate's easy access to campaign funds, why do you worry so about what this one PAC is doing on behalf of all major Democratic candidates for the '04 nomination?

Originally posted by Larry Gude
But I voted for the person I wanted. Not the RNC. Not some big money person.

I know how you feel; so did I. In the '00 CA primary, I voted for Bradley. In the primary next year, I'll vote for Dean, although I don't expect him to get the nod.

 

[smcdem]

The results will be announced sometime friday.

 

[demsformd]

Of the nine Democratic candidates for the nomination, there is an elite of candidates that can actually win the nod: Edwards, Lieberman, Dean, Kerry, Graham, and Gephardt. Sharpton, Kuinich, and Mosely-Braum have no chance. Of those in the elitist crowd, Graham and Lieberman are the least likely to win the nomination because Graham is quite old and does not seem to be loud enough to grab enough press attention. Meanwhile, liberals cannot stand Lieberman because of his economic stances, moderate rhetoric, and because he's "Bush-lite." Dean, while a long shot in the past, can make this a serious campaign for the nomination. His numbers have exploded in the polls while the other candidates are either going down (e.g. Lieberman) or staying constant (e.g. Edwards, Kerry, and Gephardt).

Of those that can win the nomination, I see Edwards as being the one Democratic candidate that has a serious shot at defeating King George. A telegenic southener with moderate lingo would be great for the Democratic candidate (sounds like another southener that won for the party). I think that a Graham selection as running mate would ensure that the state of Florida goes Democratic for us and with Edwards, southern states could be seriously contested.

Another possibility that I would like is the candidacy of General Wesley (sp?) Clark. A proven war hero would make the Democrats have credibility on security issues and a general stacks up much better against a boy from Texas that served in the National Guard.

The Democrats can win and there is polling to back this assertion up. While a named Democrat does not get high support, a generic term such as "a Democratic candidate" receives just about as much support from the populace as Bush. The country is just too divided for a person to say that 2004 is a lost cause...Democrats are energized against Bush, the country is still divided, and we have things to attack. Go Democrats in 2004!!

 

[Ken King]

Originally posted by demsformd
A telegenic southener with moderate lingo would be great for the Democratic candidate (sounds like another southener that won for the party).

Yeah, won for the party and lost an embassy for the country.

 

[Larry Gude]

Am I the only...

...person who thinks this is hillarious?

moveon.org big on line primary: Polls closed (as of Wednesday night I think) results to be released at noon on FRIDAY. FRIDAY???

OMG! Why?

Here's this group of young, hip, savy power broker wannbees, offering up an online poll, obviously because it is quick an easy and will be the will of the people and...and...check back Friday!!! What is this, Florida on-line? St. Louis electioneering?

Why? So they can massage the message? So they can "count" the votes? Check the chads? Spin the results?

What a hoot!

How to throw out your credibility in 60 seconds or less; a case study.

I am stunned.

 

[Surf City Baby]

Re: Am I the only...

Originally posted by Larry Gude
...person who thinks this is hillarious?

moveon.org big on line primary: Polls closed (as of Wednesday night I think) results to be released at noon on FRIDAY. FRIDAY???

OMG! Why? . . .

I am stunned.

Why? You yourself drew attention to the fact that this online voting idea is "a very serious, unpredictable" thing.* Voting ended less than twelve hours ago. Certainly there are kinks to be worked out.

And besides, how can you spin the results of a poll? The numbers show what they show. Even more, how can you spin the results of an election? (big )

* Unless you were referring to this particular PAC's existence as "very serious and unpredictable." If that's it--why?

 

[Larry Gude]

So...

...there is no mysterious, evil reason that the poll results aren't just shown as a running total or even simply displayed right now as the voting is over???

Ha.

 

[Surf City Baby]

Re: So...

Originally posted by Larry Gude
...there is no mysterious, evil reason that the poll results aren't just shown as a running total or even simply displayed right now as the voting is over???

Ha.

I don't know. But I don't imagine there's anything sinister going on at the PAC--that is, nothing more sinister than goes on within any PAC, except maybe Nixon's CREEP.

Since it concerns you so, why not write MoveOn.org and ask what's the holdup?

 

[Ken King]

Re: So...

Originally posted by Larry Gude
...there is no mysterious, evil reason that the poll results aren't just shown as a running total or even simply displayed right now as the voting is over???

Ha.

Maybe they are going to crunch the numbers after filtering duplicate "cookie" information?

 

[Larry Gude]

I did! I did!

Copy of my e mail to moveon.org:

"Dear Curs,

I am deeply concerned with the withholding of the big poll results. The perception this raises, especially those of people who are, shall we say, somewhat dubious of the honesty of the whole thing to begin with, are of, well, possible malfeasance, skullduggery and intrigue. Not to mention out and out cheating for your boy Howard.

As I am sure you care what I think, please respond, publicly, to my concerns that this whole thing is becoming a big joke.

Sincerely,

Larry "W2004" Gude



There response?

Well, let me just say I had to edit a few words here an there for family values sake but, they did get back to me quicker than their big pole.

To wit:

"Dear Mr. Killing America,

In response to your negative, partisan attack on all free people, especially us, the new defenders of the faith, we would respectfully ask, wish actually, that you contract a rare, incurable spinal disorder from counting your ill gotten boodle which we know you have amassed on the backs of your employees and by violating all that is nature, all so you can spend idle time waxing poetic about Newt Gingritch and smoking big, fat fake Cuban cigars. Mind your own beeswax.

Our poll is none of your damn business and we will release it when the sign comes from Brother Howard. It is a vote for REAL people, not robber barons, neo cons and other assorted flotsam and jetsam and other rot of human kind. In short, we hope your damn (deleted) falls off and then you can stick it up your (deleted) (deleted) until the friggin poll IS released.

Yours, respectfully,

The staff of

moveonyousuckassgoper.org


....Well.

I was somewhat nonplused, to say the least, and am currently consulting a thesaurus in order to respond effectively.

I'll let yah know how it goes.

 

[vraiblonde]

moveonyousuckassgoper.org

Now you guys know why I married him

 

[Surf City Baby]

poll results

I'm surprised these haven't been posted already.

From MoveOn.org:

"On June 24th and 25th, 2003 we held an online vote to help our members express their preferences among the current field of Democratic candidates. This vote also served to determine if there was consensus among MoveOn members for a candidate endorsement for the 2004 presidential contest. MoveOn.org PAC had announced that any candidate from the field of nine that garnered more than 50% of the vote would receive our endorsement.

"In just a little over 48 hours, 317,647 members voted, making this vote larger than both the New Hampshire Democratic primary and Iowa caucuses combined. Here are the . . . percentages, when voters are asked to choose one candidate:

"BRAUN: 2.21%
DEAN: 43.87%
EDWARDS: 3.19%
GEPHARDT: 2.44%
GRAHAM: 2.24%
KERRY: 15.73%
KUCINICH: 23.93%
LIEBERMAN: 1.92%
OTHER: 1.93%
SHARPTON: 0.53%
UNDECIDED: 2.01%"

Here's a link to the results page. Larry, you might find answers to your questions here.