Peek of the Baby Boom + 46

[GURPS]

Aging America heading for disaster



Following the Baby Boom, which peaked in 1961, came the Baby Bust, a long slow decline in the birthrate. Those babies grew up and began spending in accordance with highly predictable patterns.

People tend, for instance, to buy houses at about the same age — age 31 or so. Around age 53 is when people tend to buy their luxury cars — after the kids have finished college, before old age sets in. Demographics can even tell us when your household spending on potato chips is likely to peak — when the head of it is about 42.

Ultimately the size of the US economy is simply the total of what we’re all spending. Overall household spending hits a high when we’re about 46. So the peak of the Baby Boom (1961) plus 46 suggests that a high point in the US economy should be about 2007, with a long, slow decline to follow for years to come.

Anyone find that convincing?

Dent, a business consultant, stock-market prognosticator and author who says now is the time to sell stocks, has plucked an old argument off the dusty shelves of 1980s political rhetoric (“We’re nothing like Japan! And that’s horrible!”) and given it a new coat of paint: We’re exactly like Japan! And that’s horrible!

so a long downward spiral, as less money goes into the marketplace ?

 

[Larry Gude]

so a long downward spiral, as less money goes into the marketplace ?

I was wondering if anyone was gonna cite this story. It's a good read and an important point. However, given the baby boom and bust is not news to anyone older than, what, 30, this sort of thing further illustrates how wrong Bernanke and Paulson and Geithner have been in the ideas and concepts of how to 'fix' the economic problem.

I mean, I say that knowing that their motives were not to 'fix' anything but, to ensure the outcome they sought; protection of their industry at the expense of the American people under the argument that what is good for Wall Street IS good for America, a humorous as best, terminal, for the nation, at worst proposition.

Declines in spending exacerbate the problematic nature of fiat money fueled by 'growth at all costs' mindsets, in other words, the value and strength of a dollar become much more important when the markets and economy, inevitably, decline.

 

[tommyjo]

so a long downward spiral, as less money goes into the marketplace ?

Harry Dent...sheesh...look up his creds. He is about as useful a predictor as tossing dice.

When times are good, he predicts great times forever.

When times are bad, he predicts bad times forever.

Examples: his 1999 book was titled The Roaring 200s Investor. His 2011 book: The Great Crash Ahead. He only had things completely ass backwards.

His use of Japan to compare to US is culturally incorrect.

Follow Harry dent at your own peril.

The Baby Boomers have long been exercising their innate ability to weaken this country. Their final acts will be through Social Security and Medicare. Only complete morons think our budget problems are due to the poor or our international spending.

BTW...the US economy is bigger today than it was in 2007.

 

[Merlin99]

Harry Dent...sheesh...look up his creds. He is about as useful a predictor as tossing dice.

When times are good, he predicts great times forever.

When times are bad, he predicts bad times forever.

Examples: his 1999 book was titled The Roaring 200s Investor. His 2011 book: The Great Crash Ahead. He only had things completely ass backwards.

His use of Japan to compare to US is culturally incorrect.

Follow Harry dent at your own peril.

The Baby Boomers have long been exercising their innate ability to weaken this country. Their final acts will be through Social Security and Medicare. Only complete morons think our budget problems are due to the poor or our international spending.

BTW...the US economy is bigger today than it was in 2007.

A sphincter says what?

 

[Railroad]

I got a peek at the baby boom. Looked like a mushroom cloud.

 

[GURPS]

However, given the baby boom and bust is not news to anyone older than, what, 30, this sort of thing further illustrates how wrong Bernanke and Paulson and Geithner have been in the ideas and concepts of how to 'fix' the economic problem.

if you look at the problem from a marketing perspective, it all makes perfect sense ... the 'largest' segment of the population has moved passed all of these points of purchase ... and the smaller pool that is in each of those phases, cannot sustain the old spending models, hence shrinkage ....




the bigger issue - as you raise, is the academics and Gov folks that sit around in the Ivory Towers wondering wft happened


while the Economy continues to shrink - in spite of TJ Prostrations about the opposite