Polls find Trump leading Biden in four battleground states

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
In Pennsylvania, a Trafalgar Group poll published Tuesday shows Mr. Trump with a 48.4% edge over Mr. Biden’s 47.6%. Both the candidates have been barnstorming the state in recent days, trying to shore up support ahead of Tuesday.

For North Carolina, Mr. Trump has a roughly two-point lead, 48.8% to 46%.

Wisconsin, a state Mr. Trump won by under 1% in 2016, is tight with Mr. Biden leading there with only 0.4% in Mr. Cahaly’s recent poll this week.

Those four states where the president is currently up helped deliver Mr. Trump the White House in his race against Hillary Clinton four years ago.

Mr. Cahaly said it is about the economy that appears to be clicking with voters in their backing of Mr. Trump.

“The same people who told us ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ are now saying it’s the personality,” he said. “I’m not buying it.”




 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
I think if the polls are way off this time - no one's going to trust them anymore. I've long lost any faith in Nate Silver unless it's sports.

It's clear enough to me that many of them are wrong - or the methodology just plain sucks if one poll puts Biden up 17% in Wisconsin - you have to go back to 1964 before you find a Democrat with THAT BIG A LEAD - and another say 3% for Biden or 2% for Trump. If I were running RCP, I wouldn't bother to average in ANY of those obvious outliers. It is impossible to accurately poll the same population and get such a disparate set of numbers. It's because the sample just sucks.

I was reading a few articles this past week on - how did they get it so wrong last time? And I've said before, a lot of the time it's because they base their samples and weights based on the PREVIOUS election, ignoring a lot of current and rather obvious trends. The biggest trend they say they missed was the turn of white blue collar workers. They used to be the Democrat's most reliable base after African Americans. So they weighted badly with them.

This time they may fail because Trump is pulling MUCH better among African Americans and Hispanics than his Republican predecessors or even himself in 2016. Last time Trump only got about 4% of the black vote. This time he stands a really good chance of tipping the scales EVEN if he only doubles last time - and he has polls where he is pulling as high as 30% of the black vote and in the 40s among Hispanics when it was 28% in 2016.

This EASILY skews the polls and I haven't seen many polls taking this into account. They ARE trying to factor in an older vote and a young vote that tilts towards Biden. But youth are notorious for failing to show up, and the elderly - if they haven't voted by absentee ballot or mail by now, probably will appear in lower numbers. Two trends that I think will cancel each other.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
Meh. Polls schmolls. The only thing they're good for is triggering progbots.
On one of the boards I go to - the question was raised why would anyone INTENTIONALLY skew a poll? Knowing Trump voters, wouldn't that likely ENERGIZE his base rather than enervate or demoralize them?

And almost everyone said the same thing - and since they all responded so fast, I have to think they were all thinking the same reason why ---

Cover, for when Biden loses. If Biden loses a state the polls have him WINNING, the Dems will pule and howl that Trump somehow cheated.

This has happened many times before. In 2004 exit polls had Kerry winning - but the results turned out differently and Bush actually beat Kerry rather soundly. But Dems wanted to believe the EXIT POLLS than the actual votes - ignoring what many news networks seemed to agree on - exit polls done only during the day will totally skew the results towards people who aren't working or who have easy access to voting during work hours - whereas at least then most people voted before or after work.

I have no idea how early voting will affect things - there is AMPLE evidence that most of the people showing up on Election Day WILL be Republicans - which means if Trump is winning or pulling even in early voting or mail in votes - Election Day will seal the deal. But I can't find a solid trend in any of these numbers - high registrations among Republicans, huge numbers on mail-ins.

So I don't even think I would place a bet on this one. I was 100% sure Hillary would win last time.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
- and he has polls where he is pulling as high as 30% of the black vote and in the 40s

That fact has been opined a few times by some, if Trump gets over 20% of the Black vote he wins .... similar things are said about a larger Hispanic turn out

Cubans in Florida are flocking to Trump, because they know where Biden BLM Marxists and the Bernie Bros lead to ...... Leftist Authoritarian Morality Policing ....

and crap like this

'Mafia tactics': Black Lives Matter threatens Cuban-owned business with list of demands, sparking counterprotests


But youth are notorious for failing to show up, and the elderly
Democrats have screwed themselves .... for months they told people, Fear Covid Stay Home USE Mail in ballots ... now that several states have lost court challenges for expanded ballot collections, the message has changed VOTE In Person .... look at Biden's Rally's vs Trumps a 100 or so show up in cars ... vs 10,000's showing up to hear Trump, just yesterday Sapidus was trying to imply AGAIN there is something WRONG with Trump Supporters going 2, 3, 4 or more rally's - something about Trump Supporters being cultists ..

IMHO Democrats are not motivated to stand in line to vote for Biden in large numbers .... while the energy levels from Trump Supporters
 
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Hijinx

Well-Known Member
That fact has been opined a few times by some, if Trump gets over 20% of the Black vote he wins .... similar things are said about a larger Hispanic turn out

Cubans in Florida are flocking to Trump, because they know where Biden BLM Marxists and the Bernie Bros lead to ...... Leftist Authoritarian Morality Policing ....

and crap like this

'Mafia tactics': Black Lives Matter threatens Cuban-owned business with list of demands, sparking counterprotests




Democrats have screwed themselves .... for months they told people, Fear Covid Stay Home USE Mail in ballots ... now that several states have lost court challenges for expanded ballot collections, the message has changed VOTE In Person .... look at Biden's Rally's vs Trumps a 100 or so show up in cars ... vs 10,000's showing up to hear Trump, just yesterday Sapidus was trying to imply AGAIN there is something WRONG with Trump Supporters going 2, 3, 4 or more rally's - something about Trump Supporters being cultists ..

IMHO Democrats are not motivated to stand in line to vote for Biden in large numbers .... while the energy levels from Trump Supporters
If blacks have any sense at all they will not mess around with Hispanics.
They won't like the results.
Unlike white folks they threaten, Hispanics are used to violent reactions, and they have no white guilt.
If they are suicidal this is one way of getting it done.
 

22AcaciaAve

Well-Known Member
There's a few reasons why people would lie to pollsters. Some people despise pollsters and take great pleasure out of seeing them wrong. There is some truth that there may be people who would vote one way but say another because of media shame if they support the candidate the media is bashing. And then there are just some people who feel like it's nobody's business so they tell them the wrong thing just for spite. That said, the polls weren't that far off in their final assessments in 2016. They came within the margin of error on the popular vote. They did slightly underestimate the turnout for Trump. Where they really failed was that they kept projecting the overall national average as though it would decide the presidency, ignoring the electoral college. The states that supported Clinton generally supported her by a wide margin while the Trump states were much closer. That led to a false sense that Clinton would win. California alone provided almost all of the popular vote margin. When the state breakdowns were presented, slight margins or not, Trump got more electoral votes. I think the pollsters have tried to correct that this time around by focusing more on the tighter swing state races, but who knows.
 
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