Recession News

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
The Recession That Dare Not Speak Its Name


The party line, as recently parroted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on NBC’s Meet the Press, is that we aren’t in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says so. She said, “I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” But NBER can take as long as 12 months to officially declare a recession. As Gerard Baker writes in the Wall Street Journal, “This is like being told by a doctor that you are officially sick a year after your funeral.” Clearly, Biden and the Democrats want to avoid the “r” word before the midterms.

This won’t fool the electorate. Indeed, a number of recent polls indicate that the public believes we are already in a recession. A recent Morning Consult/Politico survey, for example, found that 65 percent of registered voters believe the United States is in a recession, including 53 percent of Democrats. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found this: “By 5-1, 76%-15%, those polled say the country is on the wrong track rather than heading in the right direction. A majority of those in every demographic group – across party lines and region, race and age – agree on that.” Yet Biden insists that we are on the right path. A recent statement from the administration says:

Coming off of last year’s historic economic growth – and regaining all the private sector jobs lost during the pandemic crisis – it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path.… My economic plan is focused on bringing inflation down, without giving up all the economic gains we have made. Congress has an historic chance to do that by passing the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act without delay.

This last call to arms includes a tax and spend bill the Democrats have the chutzpah to name the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.” It was exhumed on Wednesday after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) executed the latest of his trademark flip-flops. Having repeatedly pledged not to vote for any bill that would exacerbate inflation or raise taxes during a recession, Manchin made a deal to do just that. It would be an understatement to describe this legislation as irresponsible. Yet the Democrats will likely pass it without hesitation, whereupon Biden will eagerly sign it. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) denounced the bill, saying:

Apparently our Democratic colleagues do not want to be responsible for just skyrocketing prices alone. They want Americans to be faced with skyrocketing prices and higher taxes and fewer jobs, all at the same time. Democrats have outlined a giant package of huge new job-killing tax hikes, Green New Deal craziness that will kill American energy, and prescription drug socialism that will leave us with fewer new life-saving medicines. A reckless taxing and spending spree that will delight the far left and hammer working families even harder.
 

Kyle

ULTRA-F###ING-MAGA!
PREMO Member
Ministry of Truth: Wikipedia Editors Feverishly Change Article on Recessions to Match Biden Talking Points


An edit war broke out on Wikipedia this week over the definition of “recession,” as the Biden administration and the corporate media take the unprecedented step of denying the U.S. is in recession even after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. More than 70 edits to the page about recissions were made before the site locked the entry preventing further changes. The edits successfully de-emphasize the broad consensus definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth — instead parroting the Biden Administration’s talking points.

Editors of the leftist-dominated online encyclopedia are pushing a definition of “recession” that is unusually broad and favors the Biden administration’s claims that no recession has occurred. This definition, from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), claims that a recession is a ” significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months.”





 

Hessian

Well-Known Member
So...referencing history...which is generally ignored unless you a nerd (as am I)...
Dems decide to apply the Smoot-Hawley strategy to the financial crisis. WHY? Well, to spread misery while claiming they have the solution.
Hopes for a brief recession just turned into expectation of a multi-year stagflation era.
Can Joe last 28 months?
 

phreddyp

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
So...referencing history...which is generally ignored unless you a nerd (as am I)...
Dems decide to apply the Smoot-Hawley strategy to the financial crisis. WHY? Well, to spread misery while claiming they have the solution.
Hopes for a brief recession just turned into expectation of a multi-year stagflation era.
Can Joe last 28 months?
He is running the Obama playbook; we will be lucky to get 1% growth for the next 2 years.
 

Kyle

ULTRA-F###ING-MAGA!
PREMO Member
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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Is A Lie, Pure And Simple


President Joe Biden claimed last week that “this bill will, in fact, reduce inflationary pressure on the economy.” In fact, it won’t. It was never meant to.

The University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School examined the bill. Here’s what it concluded.

“The impact on inflation is statistically indistinguishable from zero.”

Worse, “the Act would very slightly increase inflation until 2024 and decrease inflation thereafter.”

In other words, it would add inflationary pressure today, when inflation is already running red hot, draining worker wages, and causing pain and suffering across the land.

Who cares what it does years from now, when, unless Biden really screws things up, inflation should be back to normal anyway?

You don’t have to look very hard to see why the bill’s inflation-fighting claims are pure bunk.

Deficits: On paper, the bill would reduce the federal deficit by more than $300 billion over the next decade. That’s supposed to be inflation fighting.

But while $300 billion in deficit reduction might sound like a big number, it amounts to less than 2% of the $15.7 trillion in projected deficits over those years. Which means it’s more like a rounding error than actual deficit reduction.


Worse, the bill front-loads the $485 billion in new spending and subsidies, while the tax hikes and other deficit-cutting measures take time to kick in. As a result, it would increase deficits in the near term, and only start cutting them in 2027, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

As anyone who has followed how Congress makes spending and tax decisions knows, it’s only the near-term that counts, because nothing is ever set in stone.

Drug costs: Biden says the bill will fight inflation by lowering drug costs. How? By letting Medicare “negotiate” with drug makers over the price it will pay for prescription medicine — in other words, Medicare will impose price controls on pharmaceuticals.

But these price controls won’t kick in anytime soon. Medicare would first have to write the rules, which can take months, if not years. That means seniors won’t see any difference in their drug costs anytime soon, if ever. And because the “savings” to Medicare will finance new spending elsewhere in the bill, taxpayers won’t see any savings, either.
 

Kyle

ULTRA-F###ING-MAGA!
PREMO Member
what's this re session you all are speaking of? This is the mostest robust economy we've had since Benjamin Franklin was President, (as Nancy told Chinese or Japanese people) and she should know, she knew him back then. She was Miss Firestone in 1957 you know,,,, when her father was a Mafia boss in Ballmer hon.
Gotta love that one. :rolleyes:

Hemi must have written her speech.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Deceleration? US adds lowest level of jobs in 18 months



The jobs report looks decent on its own — but the trendlines are all going the wrong way. The US economy added 263,000 jobs in September, the lowest level in more than a year, and a miss even off the lowered expectations of 275,000 by forecasters.






The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, but for the wrong reasons. First off, 229,000 workers left the labor force, which artificially lowers the U-3 result. But more worrisome is the population-employment ratios:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care. …
The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.3 percent in September, and the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.1 percent. Both measures are 1.1 percentage points below their values in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member

Deceleration? US adds lowest level of jobs in 18 months



The jobs report looks decent on its own — but the trendlines are all going the wrong way. The US economy added 263,000 jobs in September, the lowest level in more than a year, and a miss even off the lowered expectations of 275,000 by forecasters.






The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, but for the wrong reasons. First off, 229,000 workers left the labor force, which artificially lowers the U-3 result. But more worrisome is the population-employment ratios:


Why isn't "net jobs" a major indicator? Funny, I've been familiar with these figures for years, and I guess I always assumed that "number of jobs" increases WERE "net". This is kind of like coming home saying you made fifty bucks but you had to pay half in taxes. It really doesn't say what you think it says.
 
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