The Recession That Dare Not Speak Its Name
The party line, as recently parroted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on NBC’s Meet the Press, is that we aren’t in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says so. She said, “I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” But NBER can take as long as 12 months to officially declare a recession. As Gerard Baker writes in the Wall Street Journal, “This is like being told by a doctor that you are officially sick a year after your funeral.” Clearly, Biden and the Democrats want to avoid the “r” word before the midterms.
This won’t fool the electorate. Indeed, a number of recent polls indicate that the public believes we are already in a recession. A recent Morning Consult/Politico survey, for example, found that 65 percent of registered voters believe the United States is in a recession, including 53 percent of Democrats. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found this: “By 5-1, 76%-15%, those polled say the country is on the wrong track rather than heading in the right direction. A majority of those in every demographic group – across party lines and region, race and age – agree on that.” Yet Biden insists that we are on the right path. A recent statement from the administration says:
This last call to arms includes a tax and spend bill the Democrats have the chutzpah to name the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.” It was exhumed on Wednesday after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) executed the latest of his trademark flip-flops. Having repeatedly pledged not to vote for any bill that would exacerbate inflation or raise taxes during a recession, Manchin made a deal to do just that. It would be an understatement to describe this legislation as irresponsible. Yet the Democrats will likely pass it without hesitation, whereupon Biden will eagerly sign it. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) denounced the bill, saying:
The party line, as recently parroted by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on NBC’s Meet the Press, is that we aren’t in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) says so. She said, “I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth.” But NBER can take as long as 12 months to officially declare a recession. As Gerard Baker writes in the Wall Street Journal, “This is like being told by a doctor that you are officially sick a year after your funeral.” Clearly, Biden and the Democrats want to avoid the “r” word before the midterms.
This won’t fool the electorate. Indeed, a number of recent polls indicate that the public believes we are already in a recession. A recent Morning Consult/Politico survey, for example, found that 65 percent of registered voters believe the United States is in a recession, including 53 percent of Democrats. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found this: “By 5-1, 76%-15%, those polled say the country is on the wrong track rather than heading in the right direction. A majority of those in every demographic group – across party lines and region, race and age – agree on that.” Yet Biden insists that we are on the right path. A recent statement from the administration says:
This last call to arms includes a tax and spend bill the Democrats have the chutzpah to name the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.” It was exhumed on Wednesday after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) executed the latest of his trademark flip-flops. Having repeatedly pledged not to vote for any bill that would exacerbate inflation or raise taxes during a recession, Manchin made a deal to do just that. It would be an understatement to describe this legislation as irresponsible. Yet the Democrats will likely pass it without hesitation, whereupon Biden will eagerly sign it. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) denounced the bill, saying:
