Redeployment due to Deadbeat Germans!

Kyle

Beloved Misanthrope
PREMO Member
U.S. and Poland Sign Deal to Relocate Troops After Germany’s NATO Spending Failures

United States Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, signed an agreement with his Polish counterpart in Warsaw, that will result in an increased American military presence in the country. The move came after President Donald Trump’s decision to draw down forces in Germany, over the country’s failures to meet its NATO spending requirements.


 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Deadbeat doesn't fully describe it - sponging or leeching is more accurate. When we spend money to defend their country that they don't spend themselves, they're sponges.

I'm sick of the hue and cry from Germany - they agreed, they welched, they lost. I don't know any arrangement that works otherwise - if you renege on a deal, you don't reap the benefits of a deal.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
Frankly we should leave European Problems to the Europeans ..... sell them beans and bullets

Bring the Troops Home ......
 

Hessian

Well-Known Member
German leadership (Merkel et al) has almost a stranglehold on their media...and the lesser parties seem unable to gain traction. The majority attitude of adults seem pre-occupied with hating Trump, climate change, soothing islamophobia, and Covid 19 fears. This is what their media seems fixated on. Thus...this fits part of their narrative.
 

Hijinx

Well-Known Member
German leadership (Merkel et al) has almost a stranglehold on their media...and the lesser parties seem unable to gain traction. The majority attitude of adults seem pre-occupied with hating Trump, climate change, soothing islamophobia, and Covid 19 fears. This is what their media seems fixated on. Thus...this fits part of their narrative.
Speaking of a strangle hold on the media.
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
Frankly we should leave European Problems to the Europeans ..... sell them beans and bullets

Bring the Troops Home ......

I don't understand why we need a greater presence in Poland. But i'm not sure we can leave the Germans to themselves. There's a reason they aren't allowed to build up their own military power. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me, uh, can't get fooled again (GWB). If we pull out completely they may decide they are no longer content merely to financially run the EU but that they need their own military as well (if not just taking over de-facto an "EU" military)
 

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
I don't understand why we need a greater presence in Poland. But i'm not sure we can leave the Germans to themselves. There's a reason they aren't allowed to build up their own military power. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me, uh, can't get fooled again (GWB). If we pull out completely they may decide they are no longer content merely to financially run the EU but that they need their own military as well (if not just taking over de-facto an "EU" military)
Plus I doubt that we can redeploy that many troops from Germany to Poland. I'd think infrastructure would be an issue.

Possibly @Yooper can chime in.
 

SamSpade

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Frankly we should leave European Problems to the Europeans ..... sell them beans and bullets

Bring the Troops Home ......

Well - THAT. It's my limited understanding that the original purpose for stationing so many American troops in Germany was to be prepared for a sudden onslaught of Russian and East German tanks - an invasion. That was of course when Russia had the entire Eastern bloc as a buffer - geographically, they'd have to roll through Poland assuming Belarus allows them to just invade from there. Otherwise, a land invasion of Germany is highly unlikely.

However - one of the greatest strengths of the US military power is our ability to project power VERY FAST anywhere across the globe - and having troops square in the middle of Europe has proven extremely useful. So I do see the reason we remained there.

But there's no reason to subsidize Gemany's economy while they beat us on the head because they won't stick to their agreements with NATO.
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Plus I doubt that we can redeploy that many troops from Germany to Poland. I'd think infrastructure would be an issue.

Possibly @Yooper can chime in.
Moving east to Poland is logistically not much of a big deal if folks aren't immediately clamoring for the infrastructure the US had in Germany at the end of the 1980s. Basing in Poland would probably be more like Germany in the early 1960s as far as amenities are concerned. I think this would apply to both the Army and Air Force and also acceptable to both (we work with much less in Romania and Bulgaria though admittedly those are rotations rather than basings). Regardless, we aren't talking about anywhere near the numbers we had in Germany; I bet any permanent Poland basings would be of the "several brigade combat teams" quantity. A large percentage of the total number in Poland would be a forward-based, fairly robust V Corps headquarters. So while our presence in Poland might look combat-weak/HQ-heavy that HQ would be doing absolutely essential work building/coordinating a new General Defense Plan (GDP) that would have U.S. activity relying more on technologies/capabilities than on brute force numbers (that requirement would be the responsibility of the Central Europe/East Europe members).

The Navy would be much different, I suspect. But the naval presence aspect is probably more-or-less irrelevant as we probably wouldn't look to base out of Gdansk any more than we would base out of any of the Baltic states' ports. For one, we never really based naval forces out of Germany and I think the operational reasons for "not Germany" would be the same for Poland (why bottle up big-time assets in the Baltic?). Second, too close to Kaliningrad. So any naval activity would no doubt be ship calls/port visits. Like the ground forces I mentioned above the actual naval work would be the responsibility of Poland, etc.

But the bigger question is this: does moving east into Poland serve U.S. national/strategic interests? I think there are good reasons to say yes. the move does serve our national interest. As much as it would torque me that Germany would continue to get a free ride (as France has done for decades), moving east sends the message that much of Europe (and the U.S.) is not okay with Russian adventures in Georgia and Ukraine and the move east is our collective response (of course, Russia's response is that it did what it did b/c "we" (i.e., NATO) reneged on the promise not to invite Central & East Europe into membership). Anyway, there may be ways to use a move east to exert leverage on Germany to reconsider its gas/oil arrangements with Russia.

Conversely, one can make a great argument not to move east. For one, why put U.S. forces in a location where they would be in close proximity to Russian forces with a less-than-capable group of allies to our rear? And perhaps, these allies aren't less-than-capable they're actually indifferent (or even worse, hostile to U.S. interests). Further, one could make a great case that if Europe isn't interested in expending sufficient resources to be the majority stakeholder for its own defense why should we continue to subsidize this parasitism?

If I had to choose..., I would push east. I think the benefits outweigh the risks and it's a better fit with what has historically been a very reasonable Cold War U.S. foreign policy: containment. And before anyone says we are no longer in a Cold War let me acknowledge your point and agree with you; yes, it's true, we're no longer fighting the Cold War. Instead, it's worse: we're fighting "Cold War 2.0" (where the primary adversaries - Russia & China - have flipped insofar as to who is the more significant adversary).

FWIW

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Monello

Smarter than the average bear
PREMO Member
I have to imagine that the cost of operating would be less when compared to the exact same support in Germany. GDP per capita in US dollars favors Germany 3 to 1.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
... sends the message that much of Europe (and the U.S.) is not okay with Russian adventures in Georgia and Ukraine and the move east is our collective response


OK Col.

Why does this matter ...... :sshrug:

Beside the autonomy of the locals not wanting to be governed by the Russians, why should I care ?

Russian Nat Gas ?
One or More Pipelines ?


Something Else ?
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
OK Col.

Why does this matter ...... :sshrug:

Beside the autonomy of the locals not wanting to be governed by the Russians, why should I care ?

Russian Nat Gas ?
One or More Pipelines ?


Something Else ?
Maybe you shouldn't care. Maybe the U.S. shouldn't care as a nation. But that's my point: what's one's National Strategy? If we think it makes more sense for us as a nation to keep Russia and China from having great latitude of action then we have to do something like this (proposal). If we think it matters not, then I agree, let's pack up and head home.

Both approaches carry both benefits and risks. I see the benefits of the "deployed overseas" option to be greater (long-term) than the "head home" option. Also, the risks, I think, are less to our long-term national interests and security if we deploy East.

In the end, this is the exact discussion that took place after WWI (where we had no legitimate "forward deployed" strategy and thus bungled our post-WWI European/Russian activities). Our "heading home" (both in troop presence and League of Nations disinterest) certainly played a role in spinning up WWII (not that our lack of presence was anywhere close to the major reason for spinning up WWII). But our lack of informed presence did play a role (of course, not really having experience meant we probably would bungle it and historical antipathy to European empire games didn't allow for any real thought to a policy of presence).

Further, this exact discussion took place after WWII. This time, we recognized that "going home" couldn't be an option due to both the strength of the Soviet Union and the absolute weakness of Europe. Thus, containment.

My point is that this debate isn't new. In the end, the decision comes down to "pick your poison." I tend to pick the one that poisons me less.... So in the case of Russia I think "deployed forward presence" to buttress Central/East Europe is the best option while we get to the business of preparing for a much hotter Cold War with China. As I mentioned in my earlier post, this is a flip from historical precedent where in WWII it was "Hold (Pacific), Win (Europe), win (Pacific)" or the Cold War where it was "Contain Russia (primary), contain China (secondary)." Now it's "Presence/contain/confront/win (if necessary) China (primary), presence/contain Russia (secondary)."

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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
This time, we recognized that "going home" couldn't be an option due to both the strength of the Soviet Union and the absolute weakness of Europe. Thus, containment.

Yep Made Sense especially after 47

So in the case of Russia I think "deployed forward presence" to buttress Central/East Europe is the best option

Again WHY Should I care what Russia Does ..... why should I care about Europe's Problems with Putin .,.... certainly with Euro-wennies smack talking the US and not carrying their weight

..... while we get to the business of preparing for a much hotter Cold War with China.


Thucydides Trap
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
(a) Again WHY Should I care what Russia Does ..... why should I care about Europe's Problems with Putin .,.... certainly with Euro-wennies smack talking the US and not carrying their weight

(b) Thucydides Trap
(a) Not saying you should; just saying I do. And that we not care at our peril.

(b) Cool find. Anyway, I think the idea of applying "Sparta fearing Athens' rise" to US v China has merit, but I keep thinking it has it backwards: we aren't Sparta; that would be China. Further, I even question the whole idea in that I think it can be argued that Sparta wasn't really a hegemon. Certainly a power, but one of several jockeying for position.

But I get the drift and can concede its utility (however imperfect). So, yes, interesting. And I learned something today on a subject I didn't expect to. Double bonus! Thanks for finding and sharing! (Btw, how did you come across the term?)

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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
(a) Not saying you should; just saying I do. And that we not care at our peril.


But I get the drift and can concede its utility (however imperfect). So, yes, interesting. And I learned something today on a subject I didn't expect to. Double bonus! Thanks for finding and sharing! (Btw, how did you come across the term?)


You need to watch more Tim Pool ... he has been using that in reference to Chinese Rise in Power , that sooner or later there is going to be a clash

IMHOI China is going to have a low order shooting war in the Pacific sooner or later over

Vietnamnse "Quần đảo Trường Sa
Tagalong Kapuluan ng Kalayaan
Malay Kepulauan Spratly
Chinese Nánshā Qúndǎo

aka The Spratly Islands and other resources ....

I think depending on how the West handles Hong Kong this will set the tone for China's actions going forward.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
Victor Davis Hanson: American soldiers leave Germany -- and suddenly Germany is upset

NATO, of course, still provides a common European defense, but only by habitually relying inordinately on U.S. military contributions. That dependence seems increasingly odd when the European Union has an aggregate GDP nearly as large as America’s.

More important, NATO’s frontline threats are now mostly concerned with rogue member Turkey, especially its bullying of Greece and its increasingly aggressive stance in the Middle East.

Russia always poses a threat to Europe. But the likely flashpoints are not on the German border, but more likely eastward in the Baltic states or on the Russian frontier with Poland.

Moreover, the Merkel government has concluded, over American objections, a huge natural gas deal with Russia that is currently under some U.S. sanctions and short of cash.

Russian energy exports to Germany are said to earn Russia $10 billion a year, with a likely doubling of that income once additional pipelines to Germany are completed.

Merkel likes to lecture the world on moral issues, but what is so noble about empowering Russian President Vladimir Putin, who recently reclaimed Crimea and seems now to be eyeing Belarus?
 

Yooper

Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Victor Davis Hanson: American soldiers leave Germany -- and suddenly Germany is upset
As usual VDH gets it right. One small correction, though (from the sub-lede):
Will there be any point in the future when Europe is confident enough less selfish, less narcissistic, & less juvenile to be a full defense partner with the U.S.?

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