Ryder Cup; Tom and Tiger...

[Larry Gude]

Ryder Cup Captain Tom Watson is going to have to make a decision with his captains pick; choose Tiger or not?

Tiger can make Tom's life easy and qualify by winning the PGA this Sunday but, that is a very remote possibility. I don't think he'll even make the cut.
So, aside from winning, where is the line for Tom; pick him, no pick him?

By all accounts the only reason Tiger is at the PGA, after last weeks back issues, is because he VERY much wants to be on the team so, there is no question of motivation.

The event is 6 weeks away so, Tom would be justified in terms of Tiger likely being healthy and ready to play. Then, there is the obvious enormous pressure to do the right thing for the sport and pick Tiger because of how many more people will watch just because he is there.

The only 'big' name who has not qualified but would make a good pick is Mickelson but, he is on the team as things stand now will remain so with a decent PGA showing. However, if he gets bumped by some lower guys have a good PGA and Phil playing poorly, that makes this MUCH tougher for Watson to justify picking Tiger.

So, what do you do say, if Phil gets bumped, Tiger makes the cut and does...how well??? Top 10? Top 20?

 

[Tilted]

I think Tiger is playing this week because he wants to win the PGA Championship and thinks he has a chance to. He's willing to endure the pain, if there is any (and watching him walk a couple of times I think there probably still is some), in order to have a chance to win the tournament - up to a point that is, it's of course possible that it gets too bad to bear.

That said, when it comes to the Ryder Cup I think it's a no-brainer: If, when it comes time to make your picks, it seems very likely that Tiger will be healthy enough to play, you pick him. I don't say that with any regard to how it will affect viewership of or interest in the Ryder Cup. I say that based on a desire to win the thing. I don't care what his career record is at the Ryder Cup and I don't care how many tournaments he hasn't won recently, he's going to be one of the best options available that isn't automatically qualified. He's the kind of competitor, and he still has the kind of game, that can help his team win. I bet if you polled the other players on the team, most of them would say - hell yeah I want Tiger on my team.

 

[Larry Gude]

That said, when it comes to the Ryder Cup I think it's a no-brainer: If, when it comes time to make your picks, it seems very likely that Tiger will be healthy enough to play, you pick him. I don't say that with any regard to how it will affect viewership of or interest in the Ryder Cup. I say that based on a desire to win the thing. I don't care what his career record is at the Ryder Cup and I don't care how many tournaments he hasn't won recently, he's going to be one of the best options available that isn't automatically qualified. He's the kind of competitor, and he still has the kind of game, that can help his team win. I bet if you polled the other players on the team, most of them would say - hell yeah I want Tiger on my team.

Though I certainly understand the emotional argument, there is NO evidence to support the argument that you pick Tiger to win the Ryder Cup. I'll take ANYONE who is playing well end of season and challenge the crap out of them over Tiger. He lost his match play edge a long time ago. Having been a fan of his when he was cutting the hearts out of guys in match play before turning pro, his Ryder cups have been nothing but stunning to me.

If I am trying to beat your team, I see 2 points in the bag if you have Tiger. Worst case I see 0. For either of us.

 

[Tilted]

I'm not making an emotional argument for him. I think if he's healthy enough, he probably gives you a better chance to win than whomever that 12th team member would be. I may only play him in a couple of the team matches (probably in the Fourballs rather than Foursomes) and then the singles match.

Tiger's problem is his health. Well, and his driving. But even still, he's still one of the best when he can play - not the best anymore, but far from some average tour Joe. He'll never dominate like he used to, but that has as much to do with the quality of the top of the field now as it does with his game.

I wouldn't take him ahead of Rory. I wouldn't take him ahead of Adam Scott. I wouldn't even take him ahead of Sergio for my team competition. But those aren't the people Tom would be taking him ahead of. Watson, Fowler, Spieth, Furyk are already gonna be on the team. Phil's gonna be on the team. Tom wouldn't be bumping those kinds of players to make room for Tiger. I think, if healthy, he's at least your 12th best American option.

 

[Larry Gude]

I'm not making an emotional argument for him. I think if he's healthy enough, he probably gives you a better chance to win than whomever that 12th team member would be. I may only play him in a couple of the team matches (probably in the Fourballs rather than Foursomes) and then the singles match.

Tiger's problem is his health. Well, and his driving. But even still, he's still one of the best when he can play - not the best anymore, but far from some average tour Joe. He'll never dominate like he used to, but that has as much to do with the quality of the top of the field now as it does with his game.

I wouldn't take him ahead of Rory. I wouldn't take him ahead of Adam Scott. I wouldn't even take him ahead of Sergio for my team competition. But those aren't the people Tom would be taking him ahead of. Watson, Fowler, Spieth, Furyk are already gonna be on the team. Phil's gonna be on the team. Tom wouldn't be bumping those kinds of players to make room for Tiger. I think, if healthy, he's at least your 12th best American option.

29 matches. 14 points.

If not emotion, it sure ain't because of results.

 

[Tilted]

29 matches. 14 points.

If not emotion, it sure ain't because of results.

That's almost 50/50. How does that compare to Americans' record overall? More to the point, how would that compare to the 12th best player on any given American team? Rather well I would think. Overall I doubt Americans are 50/50 and certainly the 12th best option on any given American team wouldn't be expected to be 50/50. That's what we're talking about, is he good enough to be your 12th best player?

And if you weight those matches as I would think they should be in order to get a fair representation of a given player's contribution (that is to say, count their doubles performances half as much as their singles performances as they are only half of the doubles results and are the full singles results), then his record is above average - 8-1/2 W; 7-1/2 L; 1-1/2 T. But, again, the issue isn't whether he's good enough to be your best player or even an average player on your team. The question is is he good enough to be the worst player on your team. If our 12th best option is better than .500, we win easily.

Like I said though, I'm not basing my selection on his past Ryder Cup record - that little excursion was just for your benefit. I'm basing it on believing he's still in the top 10 of American players when he's healthy, particularly when it comes to competition where nerves and how you handle pressure can be so important. I just don't think his game has fallen off enough such that he isn't, and by Ryder Cup time he should be able to have shaken off most of the rust.

Let's tackle it from the other direction though: What players would you pick ahead of him? Let's say the auto-qualifiers are: B Watson, Furyk, J Walker, Fowler, Kuchar, Spieth, P Reed, Dufner, and Z Johnson. What 3 players are you taking instead of Tiger Woods, assuming he's healthy of course?

 

[Larry Gude]

Let's tackle it from the other direction though: What players would you pick ahead of him? Let's say the auto-qualifiers are: B Watson, Furyk, J Walker, Fowler, Kuchar, Spieth, P Reed, Dufner, and Z Johnson. What 3 players are you taking instead of Tiger Woods, assuming he's healthy of course?

I don't know the players as well as I used to so, I can't say "Oh, you gotta take BJ Holmes if he has a good PGA, guy is a pitbull!" so, this is more a thread about whether or not it is time to move on from Tiger being a no brainer. Maybe Tom is with you, he's still a super player? To me, because of the back, he's gotta have SEVERAL weeks of rehab if not flat out rest and then, it's back to square one with how sharp you can expect him to be, especially playing 36 a day. You take him and play him less, what's the point and you have no room for error if there is ANY doubt about anyone elses health?

Is there a guy in that next 10-20 you think of as a tough guy for match? Maybe he, Tiger, is the ONLY choice?

 

[Grumpy]

.... he probably gives you a better chance to win than whomever that 12th team member would be....

His ego would not stand for being the 12th man.

 

[Tilted]

I don't know the players as well as I used to so, I can't say "Oh, you gotta take BJ Holmes if he has a good PGA, guy is a pitbull!" so, this is more a thread about whether or not it is time to move on from Tiger being a no brainer. Maybe Tom is with you, he's still a super player? To me, because of the back, he's gotta have SEVERAL weeks of rehab if not flat out rest and then, it's back to square one with how sharp you can expect him to be, especially playing 36 a day. You take him and play him less, what's the point and you have no room for error if there is ANY doubt about anyone elses health?

Is there a guy in that next 10-20 you think of as a tough guy for match? Maybe he, Tiger, is the ONLY choice?

You know, you're probably right it isn't a no brainer. I think I'd take him, again assuming I'm confident he'd be healthy, but there may be others worth considering especially if Tiger didn't show me anything this week. And to reiterate, if there's much concern about his back being a problem then I don't think you can take him - he's not good enough right now to make it worth that risk. Tom would probably need to have a frank conversation with Tiger about that before picking him.

That said, I'm probably in the same boat - not familiar enough of late with all the players to offer a strong opinion of who else should be taken. I think I'd take Phil ahead of Tiger, and if Phil cracks the top nine and kicks Zach out I'd feel good about taking Zach also. On the other hand, if Patrick Reed fell out I might not take him so there'd still be three slots.

I think Keegan Bradley would be a decent choice, but beyond him I can't think of anyone I'd prefer over Tiger. Webb Simpson? Probably not.

Anyway, to clarify what I said about not playing Tiger in all the pair matches: That wouldn't just be out of concern for his back. Some of the team members have to not play in more than 1 or 2 of the pair matches. There are 32 slots and 12 players, so some will play in 3 or 4 and some will only play in 1 or 2. Not being the lead dog on the team, whoever is selected for the 11th or 12th spot may well only play 2 pairs matches - maybe only 1. I could see the same being true for Tiger just because he wasn't seen as one of the best options on this team. And I think his game right now (as well as historically) is better suited for four ball than foursome. With his inconsistency driving the ball, I think I'd be hesitant to put that kind of pressure on his driving (i.e. playing foursomes). And again, someone has to sit out those matches. When it comes to the singles match, I think I'd feel pretty good about his chances. If you're European captain Paul McGinley, who do you want Sergio to have to beat in a pressure match? Tiger or, e.g., Webb Simpson.

 

[Larry Gude]

Y If you're European captain Paul McGinley, who do you want Sergio to have to beat in a pressure match? Tiger or, e.g., Webb Simpson.

Tiger.

That is sincere. A Sergio, seems like many of the Euro's, rise to the occasion in the RC. And, I think, some new American kid he barely gets there and has something to prove, I'll take that over Tiger and yet another super star flame out.

 

[Tilted]

Tiger.

That is sincere. A Sergio, seems like many of the Euro's, rise to the occasion in the RC. And, I think, some new American kid he barely gets there and has something to prove, I'll take that over Tiger and yet another super star flame out.

Fair enough.

Now that I've thought about it a little more, Tom might want to pick himself.

That guy is incredible. Even at his age he can compete with the best in the sport for a day or two - not for all 4 days, but also not on a fluke. It seems time and again in the majors he goes out there and has one or two competitive rounds where he can hang with the very best his sport can put out there.

 

[Larry Gude]

Fair enough.

Now that I've thought about it a little more, Tom might want to pick himself.

That guy is incredible. Even at his age he can compete with the best in the sport for a day or two - not for all 4 days, but also not on a fluke. It seems time and again in the majors he goes out there and has one or two competitive rounds where he can hang with the very best his sport can put out there.

Worst thing I've ever seen in golf, it's naked cruelty, was him simply running out of gas at the British what, two years ago? It was his, THE greatest achievement in golf, EVER, by FAR, THAT close!!!!