SMC COVID-19 Numbers

stgislander

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
I was looking at the MD DOH corona virus website. I noticed that the number of confirmed cases today in SMC is 119. If you then look at their County breakdown by zip code, the total is only 84. The SMC Health Dept website has a different set of numbers. They are saying 132 confirmed cases.

I'm not sure who to believe? I would like to think the closer one gets to the ground (SMCHD), the more accurate the numbers are.
 
Goldenhawk

Goldenhawk

Well-Known Member
The MD DOH website says in small print "Data for ZIP codes with 7 or fewer cases are suppressed."

There has always been a lag between SMC Health Dept and Maryland state website numbers. That's no surprise.
 
W

winterspring

Member
Most government web sites are crap. Noting like what i want to see, on a product, like how amazon displays data.

at the end of the day, we just need to know the curve. Are new cases less than a week ago, and what does the curve look like.

we also just need a number that shows hospital capability, and how much if that is used up, and is it declining.
 
GregV814

GregV814

Well-Known Member
Well, here’s a revelation!!! Most CoVid victims in DC are black!!!?
Most CoVid victims in Mexico City are of Hispanic heritage!!
Most CoVid victims in Israel are Jews!!!!

Obviously a Trump inflicted disease!!!!!
 
Goldenhawk

Goldenhawk

Well-Known Member
winterspring said:
that shows we are 6 days past the peak, with a steep down curve.
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That PROJECTION (a software model) shows that, yes, but the actual data shows this (from my own graph of state and county published numbers):
147703

Unfortunately, that doesn't show that we're much past the peak yet.

The number of new hospitalizations is probably the best indicator of cases, and THAT value is pretty flat right now. "New cases" will only continue to climb as more people are tested. Deaths lag cases by a week or two, so it's not a good predictor of anything.

So new hospitalizations, in my view, best shows what's actually going on out there. And that shows that we've got a lot of work still to do.
 
GregV814

GregV814

Well-Known Member
attention, pragmatic thinkers , mathematicians and other smart people:

when we look for the flattening curve, bi-weekly, before opening the county, state, country or earth, and increasing tests at a rapid pace, we'll never see a flattening. is that fair and reasonable? Percentage-wise, the more we test, the more positive results, the curve increases. So aren't we just kicking the proverbial can down the road?
 
Goldenhawk

Goldenhawk

Well-Known Member
GregV814 said:
...Percentage-wise, the more we test, the more positive results, the curve increases....
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Certainly, if we test more we'll discover more cases. And definitely, the more random testing (not targeted at possible cases) is done, the more the numbers will skew.

That's why I think that the hospitalization rate is a far better indicator of actual disease spread. This page addresses that to some extent; the CDC is tracking hospitalizations closely.
www.cdc.gov

COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review

The week’s key data, narrative interpretations, & visualizations.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

And unlike some conspiracy-minded types, I'm fairly confident that our elected and appointed officials are doing their honest best to figure this thing out, and keep as many people safe and healthy as possible. I think it's safe to assume that your logic, and mine, are part of the current analysis.
 
spr1975wshs

spr1975wshs

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Scootboot said:
I want to know where new cases are coming from? People going to the grocery store? Medical field? I feel like we should be given that information now more than when this first came out.
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County health board posted a couple weeks ago they would no longer reveal what the patients told them about places they'd been.
 
Goldenhawk

Goldenhawk

Well-Known Member
They want you to assume that it's everywhere now.
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I've been carefully tracking COVID-19 numbers for MD and St Marys County since this started. I thought this morning that it would be interesting to estimate how many cases might actually be CURRENT - since the total numbers keep climbing but most of those people are over it already.

So I created the attached plot based on an assumption that most COVID-19 cases last 10 days, and based it on the number of new cases reported each day. Seems like St Marys and Calvert are actually doing pretty well. But Maryland as a whole is NOT; a similar statewide graph is still trending upward.

Still, although it's trending down, the answer still makes me inclined to be rather cautious when out and about.

If we assume 10 actual infections for every one tested infection (based on several analyses of recent widespread test data from California), I think we could assume that there are about 300 infectious people in St Marys, and 250 of them don't know it. Given our local population ~114,000, that's about 3 people in every 1000, or 1 in every 330. (Some mostly-discounted estimates said 50-80x, so it could be much higher than that.)

So EVERYWHERE? No. Chances of encountering one of them? Not trivial. If there are 150 people in Walmart or Lowes at any given time, there is a reasonable chance (1:2) one of them is infected and infectious and just doesn't know it.

147756


Edited: tweaking numbers based on additional research into infection duration.
 
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spr1975wshs

spr1975wshs

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Actually, Lowe's posted limit is now 225, the 150 and 175 are scribbled out with black marker.
Heck, they weren't even counting today.
 
Scat

Scat

Well-Known Member
Goldenhawk said:
I've been carefully tracking COVID-19 numbers for MD and St Marys County since this started. I thought this morning that it would be interesting to estimate how many cases might actually be CURRENT - since the total numbers keep climbing but most of those people are over it already.
Click to expand...
So your answer is daily testing for the entire population. :yay:
 
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