So who do you think will get the Dem nomination?
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Looks like somebody borrowed Dirty Harrys rubber band.
WingsOfGold
Well-Known Member
Should dopers be permitted to vote Jed? I mean it's obvious you haven't a clue.
I'm guessing the funk of all those people in the clown car is getting pretty strong by now.
www.nytimes.com
Seth Moulton Joins 2020 Race for President (Published 2019)
Mr. Moulton, a Massachusetts congressman, has pushed for a “new generation of leadership” in Washington and sought to deny Nancy Pelosi the House speaker’s gavel.
Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
I think much of this "candidacy announcing" is more about gaining name recognition for 2024 (and beyond) and less about seriously contesting 2020.I'm guessing the funk of all those people in the clown car is getting pretty strong by now.
Seth Moulton Joins 2020 Race for President (Published 2019)
Mr. Moulton, a Massachusetts congressman, has pushed for a “new generation of leadership” in Washington and sought to deny Nancy Pelosi the House speaker’s gavel.
I'm now inclined to believe this slew of jumps-in (seemingly, increasing with each day) reflects the DNC's acknowledgment that 2020 is a lost cause. Of course, the noise will remain ("Defeat Trump! Our candidate is the best!" and all that blather), but the reading of the spaces between the talking point lines says, "concession."
So yes, name recognition for down the road.
We'll see.
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SamSpade
Well-Known Member
Doesn't seem to work most of the time for these huge turnouts, though, does it?
My guess is, you probably won't ever hear from Martin O'Malley again.
Hijinx
Well-Known Member
I sure hope not.
But I have changed my mind on who will win the Dem primary.
I said Willie Brown's ex-mistress would get it, but I undertstand Old Joe Biden has finally read a couple of polls that said he could win and has decided to give it a shot. If Joe runs he will win the primary.
The Democrats have dealt with Biden before and they know they can pull his strings.
SamSpade
Well-Known Member
I'm seeing a pattern here not unlike primaries in the past - such as Beto's quick rise and beginning to fall to Buttigieg - who will likely also rise briefly and fall to someone else. The pattern is that flavor of the month becomes the hot news item - until they're tainted with bad press. In the past, this led to the most boring candidate grabbing the nomination. I give you Dukakis and Kerry.
Right now, Harris has the biggest lead, and polling so far shows, she'd still beat Joe. So maybe if the party wants her, they will find more ways to scuttle Joe's campaign.
Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Who?
I, too, thought Harris was the shoo-in.
But you may be on to something; run Biden and it's a no-lose scenario.
Hmmm. Bears watching.
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It would be pretty hilarious if all these young SJWs had to come out for an old white guy. 
I love Joe, but he's not terribly bright. There's no way he could debate Donald Trump and survive. Sarah Palin ran right over him, can you imagine what Trump would do?
I can't picture a scenario in which Trump would lose 2020. This current crop of jokers has to be really stupid to want to take him on - he will eat them alive on the debate stage, plus he has an excellent record to run on. If they gin up impeachment crap, they'll really sink themselves.
I love Joe, but he's not terribly bright. There's no way he could debate Donald Trump and survive. Sarah Palin ran right over him, can you imagine what Trump would do?
I can't picture a scenario in which Trump would lose 2020. This current crop of jokers has to be really stupid to want to take him on - he will eat them alive on the debate stage, plus he has an excellent record to run on. If they gin up impeachment crap, they'll really sink themselves.
awpitt
Main Streeter
It would be pretty hilarious if all these young SJWs had to come out for an old white guy.
I love Joe, but he's not terribly bright. There's no way he could debate Donald Trump and survive. Sarah Palin ran right over him, can you imagine what Trump would do?
I can't picture a scenario in which Trump would lose 2020. This current crop of jokers has to be really stupid to want to take him on - he will eat them alive on the debate stage, plus he has an excellent record to run on. If they gin up impeachment crap, they'll really sink themselves.
I think you're under estimating Uncle Joe. His biggest battle will be getting the nomination. If he can get past the people at the kid's table, Trump will have a real challenge. If any of the others get the nomination, Trump will be shoe-in for a second term.
This_person
Well-Known Member
On what do you base this?
Personally, I see two guys who have some of the same baggage (accusations of inappropriate actions towards women, accusations of being horrifically gaffe-prone, old, white, male), but Trump is the sitting president with some actual accomplishments to his name, and Biden was the VP for 8 years under some of the slowest economic recovery of American history, some of the highest racial tensions, some of the worst scandals of any presidency, and Biden accomplished exactly zero as VP. Meanwhile, as a sitting legislative branch person, Biden's accomplishments would easily fit on a yellow sticky.
So, I'm curious as to what you think makes him a real challenge.
Hijinx
Well-Known Member
The basic thing that would make Joe Biden a challenge is the "Yellow Dog" vote.
This country is pretty much split down the Middle and m,any people do not vote for who is the best candidate, they vote party.
Biden has name recognition, he was Obama's tool and if elected he will still be Obama's tool.
Obama won an election and Hillary came close, take all of those votes and add in a few from the cemetery's and the illegals and Biden could slip in.
This country is pretty much split down the Middle and m,any people do not vote for who is the best candidate, they vote party.
Biden has name recognition, he was Obama's tool and if elected he will still be Obama's tool.
Obama won an election and Hillary came close, take all of those votes and add in a few from the cemetery's and the illegals and Biden could slip in.
Yooper
Up. Identified. Lase. Fire. On the way.
Both great posts. Thank you, both!
I think awpitt is on to something here. If Biden can get by the "people at the kid's table" (which is a BIG assume), then the Dems have the anti-Trump (wrt emotional states). Don't discount the emotion here; studies (and common sense/just plain observation) show that folks go on emotion to a far greater extent than they believe they do and that facts often take second place to facts.
In fact, one can make the case that this is why Repubs so often fail in direct competition with Dems. Repubs almost ALWAYS have facts on their side; Dems have "puppies, children, and Pajama Boy." When this is how the fight lines up, Dems usually win. Trump upended the usual Repub playbook coopting Dem approaches. (Which infuriated both Repubs - "That's NOT who WE are" - and Dems - "Hey, he stole our playbook!")
In other words, Dems, knowing they can't use their usual playbook against Trump, will actually try to go the Repub route. Biden is the Dems anti-Trump in a mirror/alternate universe-style election.
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I wonder if Joe is dusting off his stump speech from 1987.
It's hard for me to tell because the thinking of the average modern Democrat is so far outside my comprehension level that I'm not a good judge of what they can be talked into. The whole Kavanaugh thing made it clear to me that they think WAY differently than I do.
The problem with the Democrat Party is that they're trying to be too many things to too many different groups. The very young, the blacks, the Latinos, the gays, the extremely poor, the extremely rich, the uneducated, the overeducated.....it's a lot to juggle, especially since those groups not only don't want the same things, they are in direct conflict with each other.
Dems are going to have to rely on the power of the D and voter turnout, because there is not a candidate currently in the running who has enough appeal to all those groups that they could beat Trump.