SamSpade
Well-Known Member
At this point - I have no idea WHAT polls have any degree of accuracy. I do tend to give considerable weight to the general political lean from whatever site I go to, to find out. Thus, extreme right leaning sites not only have Trump winning, but some of them by a LOT. JUST this morning, I've been to two sites that have on one hand, Trump sweeping the "three" battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - and another that says EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE.
I JUST read two other sites that declare that Dems are in a slight panic, because they deliberately juiced the numbers to make Kamala appear more popular than she actually IS.
A few that are close but differ on who has the "national" lead, as though that means anything. Most times, in a close race, the Democrat will have that, partly because a state like California has 40 million people and they have been voting more than TWO THIRDS Democrat for about 30 years. For example, if you totally pull California out of the equation in 2016, Trump not only wins the Electoral College but the "national" vote as well. Such is the influence of states with high population that collectively mostly vote for ONE party. I thought it interesting that Trump had a MASSIVE rally at Coachella - because if you vote Republican in California - your vote usually doesn't count. Like at all. Ditto New York state. And MANY blue states, actually all of them, have the "red" totally dwarfed by incredibly lopsided voting in the largest city, while the rest of the state goes - mostly - red.
It USED TO BE - I'd go with the betting sites. You can dither all you want on the issues, but people who wager MONEY are likely to have it locked down. Didn't happen the last couple cycles. I also would tend to look at Wall Street and corporations, because they have BILLIONS on the line. Not always right, especially 2020. Lastly, I looked at polling firms with a history of being right. NO ONE is all that accurate over more than two cycles.
The last two Presidential elections, we had what they term "the shy Trump voter" - voters reluctant to say they were voting Trump because - sadly - repercussions. People bold enough to declare support for Trump often find themselves PAYING for it from the kind, merciful understanding American Left, the champion of free expression. So at LEAST twice, the polls UNDERCOUNTED Trump in their polling. I am pretty sure they have taken that into account.
So - who will win? I have no idea. I cannot for the life of me fathom why ANYONE would purposely vote for Kamala EXCEPT they despise Trump ENOUGH to vote for ANYTHING ELSE. I also know people whom I consider very astute and bright determined to vote against him, although their stated reasons are ridiculous. BUT I also know that across the country, for the first time in decades, there are actually MORE registered Republicans than Democrats, and the trend in many states is party switching.
In 2016, I stayed up to watch the results, despondent that Hillary would win - the one person I considered far and away the most corrupt and odious person in politics, who never refrained for a second how MUCH she despised those who disagree with her politically (an attitude which she has actually DOUBLED DOWN ON recently).
Nope. No clue.
I JUST read two other sites that declare that Dems are in a slight panic, because they deliberately juiced the numbers to make Kamala appear more popular than she actually IS.
A few that are close but differ on who has the "national" lead, as though that means anything. Most times, in a close race, the Democrat will have that, partly because a state like California has 40 million people and they have been voting more than TWO THIRDS Democrat for about 30 years. For example, if you totally pull California out of the equation in 2016, Trump not only wins the Electoral College but the "national" vote as well. Such is the influence of states with high population that collectively mostly vote for ONE party. I thought it interesting that Trump had a MASSIVE rally at Coachella - because if you vote Republican in California - your vote usually doesn't count. Like at all. Ditto New York state. And MANY blue states, actually all of them, have the "red" totally dwarfed by incredibly lopsided voting in the largest city, while the rest of the state goes - mostly - red.
It USED TO BE - I'd go with the betting sites. You can dither all you want on the issues, but people who wager MONEY are likely to have it locked down. Didn't happen the last couple cycles. I also would tend to look at Wall Street and corporations, because they have BILLIONS on the line. Not always right, especially 2020. Lastly, I looked at polling firms with a history of being right. NO ONE is all that accurate over more than two cycles.
The last two Presidential elections, we had what they term "the shy Trump voter" - voters reluctant to say they were voting Trump because - sadly - repercussions. People bold enough to declare support for Trump often find themselves PAYING for it from the kind, merciful understanding American Left, the champion of free expression. So at LEAST twice, the polls UNDERCOUNTED Trump in their polling. I am pretty sure they have taken that into account.
So - who will win? I have no idea. I cannot for the life of me fathom why ANYONE would purposely vote for Kamala EXCEPT they despise Trump ENOUGH to vote for ANYTHING ELSE. I also know people whom I consider very astute and bright determined to vote against him, although their stated reasons are ridiculous. BUT I also know that across the country, for the first time in decades, there are actually MORE registered Republicans than Democrats, and the trend in many states is party switching.
In 2016, I stayed up to watch the results, despondent that Hillary would win - the one person I considered far and away the most corrupt and odious person in politics, who never refrained for a second how MUCH she despised those who disagree with her politically (an attitude which she has actually DOUBLED DOWN ON recently).
Nope. No clue.
