Tesla

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
The latest surge was partly fueled by Panasonic Corp <6752.T> saying on Monday its automotive battery venture with Tesla was in the black for the first time.

Some analysts have attributed the rally to short covering as well. Short interest in Tesla stood at 13.8% as of Jan. 30, according to Refinitiv data.

Shares of heavily shorted companies can at times get pushed higher as traders rush to buy stock to cover their short bets, triggering what is known as a “short squeeze”.

Panasonic shares closed up 10%, while those of Tesla’s Asian suppliers South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd <051910.KS> and China’s CATL <300750.SZ> also closed higher.

“Investors are now starting to believe that Tesla can make mass-volume electric vehicles, and automakers, battery makers and suppliers can make money from EVs,” said analyst Cho Hyun-ryul, at Samsung Securities.

https://www.oann.com/another-day-another-record-tesla-shares-hit-900/
 

Spitfire

Active Member
Greetings:

I was watching after hours trading early this morning and it was increasing about 2% every 15 minutes. Never seen anything like this before.

Really makes no sense. Company lost 3/4 of a billion last year.

Part of this likely a short squeeze.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Just nuts. Lots going on though, and hard to see the crystal ball clearly enough. Good full range analysis here.

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target

Battery and Powertrain Investor Day, thought to be happening on 4/20 :) Should be the next big piece of information. If they announce some of the rumored and extrapolated bits, should be interesting. One reason they are not as profitable as folks say is constant reinvestment. Buying things like
  1. Grohmann, a German company specializing in automation of assembly lines, Mercedes recently said that not having Grohmann available is hurting their ability to ramp EV production. .
  2. Maxwell, who holds patents in two key areas, a dry cell battery assembly method that can significantly change the math regarding battery cell/pack production, and super capacitors.
  3. They also bought Hibar systems, experts in battery production, the battery equivalent to Grohmann.
Expected announcements in April - Lower production costs and increases in production capacity and production speed for both batteries and motors, along with increases in both storage capacity and longevity of packs and motors. Increases in production capacity can shift expected delivery of both Semi and Cybertruck to the left.

Not making money because you are losing money on product is one thing. Not showing a profit because you are spending to take you to another level, thats not operating at a loss, thats reinvestment. I think this current high wont last, but I'll bet the comedown still stops comfortably higher than where we were in January.
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
Tesla stock does not obey the laws of common sense. Do not try to apply normal investing know-how to this company or it's stock.

That said, looks like a small spike based on the battery news and UK moving up their timetable for all-electric car requirement may have started a short squeeze followed by covering of convertable debt. When it all settles I expect they will still be up 15-20%.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
This shows it best, a 30 day slice. You could connect two sides of that insane spike with a smooth line that still has an upward slope. Chinas issues will affect Chinese deliveries, thats not a Tesla caused issue but will affect the price downward a little, I think. You can expect a to see another increase when Model Y deliveries begin in March instead of the expected October/Nov 20 they were expected to make.
145028
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
This shows it best, a 30 day slice. You could connect two sides of that insane spike with a smooth line that still has an upward slope. Chinas issues will affect Chinese deliveries, thats not a Tesla caused issue but will affect the price downward a little, I think. You can expect a to see another increase when Model Y deliveries begin in March instead of the expected October/Nov 20 they were expected to make. View attachment 145028
That's also cherry picked. Go back 4 months and they are up over 100%
 

glhs837

Power with Control
That's also cherry picked. Go back 4 months and they are up over 100%

Not "cherry picked" in that sense. This thread is about this crazy spike. What I was trying to show with that 30 day timeframe was the spike was not a precursor to a crash, but rather that the spikes downside still shows the rate if increase we were seeing before the spike. I'm long Tesla myself, bought a few years back at about $330, so I'm pretty happy. :) So I know exactly how far up they are from various points in time, and why. I think $600-$700 is a valid place to be right now
\
EDIT: Now, if Battery and Powertrain Investor Day goes as I expect, I would not be surprised to see it go over 1,000 and stay for the most part. China developments notwithstanding of course.
 

TPD

the poor dad
Oh heck - I missed this thread. I just posted a new thread about Tesla (and other stocks). Was looking to buy some back in December at $430. $679 on today's close after going over $900. Hmmmm
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Availibilty of lithium to make batteries will be their Achilles heel.

Nah, we're fine on lithium until we get it from asteroids. And Tesla led with locking in suppliers for quite a while.

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/availability_of_lithium

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/03/26/who-are-teslas-lithium-suppliers.aspx

And I know the virus thing is screwing up everything right now, but stuff coming donw the pike looks good.

1. Battery and Powertrain Investor day is expected to have some pretty serious battery chemistry and manufacturing advances announced, And not ones that will bear fruit in five years, but this year or next year. New stronger aluminum alloys that will not only decrease weight in motors, but also have better electrical properties increasing efficiency. Both of which increase range.

2. Model Y release in March instead of November, possibly being manufactured with new large parts casting methods that will decrease cost and complexity. Those methods might also work backwards into Model 3 production.

3. Those things are just for 2020. Roadster doesnt really move the money needle any, but the semi and the cybertruck in 2021 have potential.

4. All the "tesla killers" that were coming came and killed nothing. The VW car is a train wreck. The trucks will be interesting to see Hard to judge competition since nobody is actually in production yet.
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Nah, we're fine on lithium until we get it from asteroids. And Tesla led with locking in suppliers for quite a while.

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/availability_of_lithium

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/03/26/who-are-teslas-lithium-suppliers.aspx

And I know the virus thing is screwing up everything right now, but stuff coming donw the pike looks good.

1. Battery and Powertrain Investor day is expected to have some pretty serious battery chemistry and manufacturing advances announced, And not ones that will bear fruit in five years, but this year or next year. New stronger aluminum alloys that will not only decrease weight in motors, but also have better electrical properties increasing efficiency. Both of which increase range.

2. Model Y release in March instead of November, possibly being manufactured with new large parts casting methods that will decrease cost and complexity. Those methods might also work backwards into Model 3 production.

3. Those things are just for 2020. Roadster doesnt really move the money needle any, but the semi and the cybertruck in 2021 have potential.

4. All the "tesla killers" that were coming came and killed nothing. The VW car is a train wreck. The trucks will be interesting to see Hard to judge competition since nobody is actually in production yet.
Maybe with the batteries, but aluminum.....doubtful. one of the things that I know real well is aluminum alloys. 7075 is the strongest useful alloy, there is at least one stronger (7079) but it has problems with something called stress corrosion cracking, they tried to use it on the Apollo program but it cracked just setting on the shelf. 7075 is too expensive to use in the auto industry for anything but super cars.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Maybe with the batteries, but aluminum.....doubtful. one of the things that I know real well is aluminum alloys. 7075 is the strongest useful alloy, there is at least one stronger (7079) but it has problems with something called stress corrosion cracking, they tried to use it on the Apollo program but it cracked just setting on the shelf. 7075 is too expensive to use in the auto industry for anything but super cars.
https://electrek.co/2020/02/07/tesla-aluminum-alloys-die-casting-in-electric-car-parts/


Help me parse this then. Keeping in mind, this isnt for doors or hoods, this alloy seems destined for use in the electrical system, or they wouldn't focus on those properties in the patent, correct? Here's the full daya dump, including the whole patent application, I would appreciate an experts opinion.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
People are only buying Teslas for the battery packs for the impending virus apocalypse. Preppers.

When the grid collapses, you gotta power the perimeter fence somehow...... :) Although you can just buy the powerpack in a convenient home package already called a PowerWall. :) Although the serious guys are buying these...... do the whole street :)

https://www.tesla.com/powerpack

If you are doing the whole subdivision, step up to these....

https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/29/20746170/tesla-megapack-battery-pge-storage-announced

Australia already did and is expanding the largest grid storage in the world. CA is getting ready to top them....

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/27/humongous-tesla-battery-plant-approved-in-california-is-10x-bigger-than-worlds-biggest-battery-plant/
 

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
Ah, they aren't necessarily looking for a better alloy, they are looking for a better alloy to cast (a relatively cheap process), that makes more sense.

My guess is for main electrical lines, something like a bus bar.

I am not a fan of aluminum as a conductor, it is very good but has problems due to high thermal expansion and fatigue issues unless it's copper clad. Many trailer fires were caused due to this in the 70s.

The other possibility is a cast motor case that doesnt have to be wound, reducing its weight and cost.
 
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