Tesla

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
The latest surge was partly fueled by Panasonic Corp <6752.T> saying on Monday its automotive battery venture with Tesla was in the black for the first time.

Some analysts have attributed the rally to short covering as well. Short interest in Tesla stood at 13.8% as of Jan. 30, according to Refinitiv data.

Shares of heavily shorted companies can at times get pushed higher as traders rush to buy stock to cover their short bets, triggering what is known as a “short squeeze”.

Panasonic shares closed up 10%, while those of Tesla’s Asian suppliers South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd <051910.KS> and China’s CATL <300750.SZ> also closed higher.

“Investors are now starting to believe that Tesla can make mass-volume electric vehicles, and automakers, battery makers and suppliers can make money from EVs,” said analyst Cho Hyun-ryul, at Samsung Securities.

https://www.oann.com/another-day-another-record-tesla-shares-hit-900/
 

Spitfire

Active Member
Greetings:

I was watching after hours trading early this morning and it was increasing about 2% every 15 minutes. Never seen anything like this before.

Really makes no sense. Company lost 3/4 of a billion last year.

Part of this likely a short squeeze.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
Just nuts. Lots going on though, and hard to see the crystal ball clearly enough. Good full range analysis here.

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target

Battery and Powertrain Investor Day, thought to be happening on 4/20 :) Should be the next big piece of information. If they announce some of the rumored and extrapolated bits, should be interesting. One reason they are not as profitable as folks say is constant reinvestment. Buying things like
  1. Grohmann, a German company specializing in automation of assembly lines, Mercedes recently said that not having Grohmann available is hurting their ability to ramp EV production. .
  2. Maxwell, who holds patents in two key areas, a dry cell battery assembly method that can significantly change the math regarding battery cell/pack production, and super capacitors.
  3. They also bought Hibar systems, experts in battery production, the battery equivalent to Grohmann.
Expected announcements in April - Lower production costs and increases in production capacity and production speed for both batteries and motors, along with increases in both storage capacity and longevity of packs and motors. Increases in production capacity can shift expected delivery of both Semi and Cybertruck to the left.

Not making money because you are losing money on product is one thing. Not showing a profit because you are spending to take you to another level, thats not operating at a loss, thats reinvestment. I think this current high wont last, but I'll bet the comedown still stops comfortably higher than where we were in January.
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
Tesla stock does not obey the laws of common sense. Do not try to apply normal investing know-how to this company or it's stock.

That said, looks like a small spike based on the battery news and UK moving up their timetable for all-electric car requirement may have started a short squeeze followed by covering of convertable debt. When it all settles I expect they will still be up 15-20%.
 

glhs837

Power with Control
This shows it best, a 30 day slice. You could connect two sides of that insane spike with a smooth line that still has an upward slope. Chinas issues will affect Chinese deliveries, thats not a Tesla caused issue but will affect the price downward a little, I think. You can expect a to see another increase when Model Y deliveries begin in March instead of the expected October/Nov 20 they were expected to make.
145028
 

Clem72

Well-Known Member
This shows it best, a 30 day slice. You could connect two sides of that insane spike with a smooth line that still has an upward slope. Chinas issues will affect Chinese deliveries, thats not a Tesla caused issue but will affect the price downward a little, I think. You can expect a to see another increase when Model Y deliveries begin in March instead of the expected October/Nov 20 they were expected to make. View attachment 145028
That's also cherry picked. Go back 4 months and they are up over 100%
 

glhs837

Power with Control
That's also cherry picked. Go back 4 months and they are up over 100%

Not "cherry picked" in that sense. This thread is about this crazy spike. What I was trying to show with that 30 day timeframe was the spike was not a precursor to a crash, but rather that the spikes downside still shows the rate if increase we were seeing before the spike. I'm long Tesla myself, bought a few years back at about $330, so I'm pretty happy. :) So I know exactly how far up they are from various points in time, and why. I think $600-$700 is a valid place to be right now
\
EDIT: Now, if Battery and Powertrain Investor Day goes as I expect, I would not be surprised to see it go over 1,000 and stay for the most part. China developments notwithstanding of course.
 
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