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The Economics of Immigration Enforcement
Research and Assessment
from The National Policy Institute
December 2005: Issue Number 101
All NPI publications can be found at:
NATIONALPOLICYINSTITUTE.ORG NATIONALPOLICYINSTITUTE.ORG
The Economics of
Immigration Enforcement
Assessing the Costs and Benefi ts of Mass Deportation
Edwin S. Rubenstein
NPI▪ “to ourselves and our posterity”
Preamble to the Constitution
NATIONAL POLICY INSTITUTE
P.O. Box 847 ▪ McLean, VA 22101 ▪ 703-442-0558
nationalpolicyinstitute.org
THE ECONOMICS OF IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Mass Deportation
Edwin S. Rubenstein
SYNOPSIS
In July 2005, the Center for American Progress published a report
assessing the costs of arresting, detaining, prosecuting, and
deporting illegal aliens. The study, Deporting the Undocumented: A
Cost Assessment, estimated that the total cost of mass deportation
would be between $206 and $230 billion over five years or an
average cost of between $41 and $46 billion annually over a five
year period. The following paper reviews the data on mass
deportation. In reassessing the cost, the following analysis
compares and contrasts what an amnesty would cost taxpayers in
terms of social services, lost wages, health care subsidies, and
educational expenditures. The author concludes that comparative
estimates demonstrate “no matter how high the costs of
deporting illegal aliens may seem, the costs of not deporting them
are larger still.”
1
National Policy Institute / Analysis #101: The Economics of Immigration Enforcement
/ Page 1 of 19 / NATIONALPOLICYINSTITUTE.ORG
THE ECONOMICS OF IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Mass Deportation
Edwin S. Rubenstein
July 2005 study questions whether deporting illegal immigrants would
be worth the costs. Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment is
published by the Center for American Progress, a liberal think-tank. Its
authors claim the study is the first-ever estimate of costs associated with
arresting, detaining, prosecuting, and removing immigrants who have entered
the United States illegally or overstayed their visas.
The cost of mass deportation?: $206 to $230 billion over five-years,
depending on how many illegals leave voluntarily. That’s an average cost of $41
billion to $46 billion per year for five years. About 10 million illegals would be
subject to deportation, according to the study.1
Advocates for tougher immigration laws say the estimates are too high.
Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies argues, for example, that
as many as 50 percent of illegals would leave voluntarily if the government were
to initiate an aggressive deportation policy. By contrast, the study assumes only
10 to 20 percent would leave voluntarily.
Rep. Tom Tancredo (R.–CO) called the study “an interesting intellectual
exercise” that is “useless…because no one’s talking about” mass deportation.
Rather than deport individuals he would impose fines and impose sanctions on
employers who employ illegals—something the government has stubbornly
refused to do.
We believe that neither the pro- nor the anti-immigration groups are
asking the right questions. Neither side has assessed the costs of maintaining the
status quo, i.e., the annual costs of an immigration policy that refuses to either
stem the influx of illegal aliens or deport illegals already here.
Illegal aliens are poorer than natives. They are eligible for welfare, medical
assistance, and housing subsidies. Like all people, they enroll their children in
school, drive on roads, and require police, fire, and sanitation services. They are
also more likely to be incarcerated.
They also pay taxes. Even when working “off the books” illegal
immigrants can’t avoid paying excise, sales and other taxes. So the fact that they
receive public benefits does not necessarily mean they are a net drain.
Unfortunately, every study of the fiscal impact of immigration finds that the
public expenditures attributable to illegal immigrants exceed their tax payments
by a wide margin.
In addition there are indirect economic costs. Illegal immigrants reduce
the incomes and employment opportunities of U.S.-born workers. Since the 1986
amnesty illegal aliens have become the largest contributor to U.S. labor force
growth. Immigrant inflows—about one-third to one-half of which are comprised
of illegal immigrants—accounted for almost half of U.S. labor force growth in
recent years, and even more in certain areas and industries.2
About 15 percent of U.S. workers were foreign born in 2004, up from 10
percent in 1990. Exactly how much of a reduction this has had on incomes of U.S.
born workers cannot be known with certainty. A study by Harvard University
Professor George Borjas concludes, however, that every 10 percent increase in the
U.S. labor force due to immigration reduces wages of native workers by about
3.5 percent.3 If Borjas is right, the income lost by displaced native born workers is
enormous and growing rapidly.
In this paper we will show that, no matter how high the costs of deporting
illegal aliens may seem, the costs of not deporting them are larger still.
Complete text linked below in PDF format:
http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/index.php?PageID=1
http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/pdf/deportation.pdf
Research and Assessment
from The National Policy Institute
December 2005: Issue Number 101
All NPI publications can be found at:
NATIONALPOLICYINSTITUTE.ORG NATIONALPOLICYINSTITUTE.ORG
The Economics of
Immigration Enforcement
Assessing the Costs and Benefi ts of Mass Deportation
Edwin S. Rubenstein
NPI▪ “to ourselves and our posterity”
Preamble to the Constitution
NATIONAL POLICY INSTITUTE
P.O. Box 847 ▪ McLean, VA 22101 ▪ 703-442-0558
nationalpolicyinstitute.org
THE ECONOMICS OF IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Mass Deportation
Edwin S. Rubenstein
SYNOPSIS
In July 2005, the Center for American Progress published a report
assessing the costs of arresting, detaining, prosecuting, and
deporting illegal aliens. The study, Deporting the Undocumented: A
Cost Assessment, estimated that the total cost of mass deportation
would be between $206 and $230 billion over five years or an
average cost of between $41 and $46 billion annually over a five
year period. The following paper reviews the data on mass
deportation. In reassessing the cost, the following analysis
compares and contrasts what an amnesty would cost taxpayers in
terms of social services, lost wages, health care subsidies, and
educational expenditures. The author concludes that comparative
estimates demonstrate “no matter how high the costs of
deporting illegal aliens may seem, the costs of not deporting them
are larger still.”
1
National Policy Institute / Analysis #101: The Economics of Immigration Enforcement
/ Page 1 of 19 / NATIONALPOLICYINSTITUTE.ORG
THE ECONOMICS OF IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT
Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Mass Deportation
Edwin S. Rubenstein
July 2005 study questions whether deporting illegal immigrants would
be worth the costs. Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment is
published by the Center for American Progress, a liberal think-tank. Its
authors claim the study is the first-ever estimate of costs associated with
arresting, detaining, prosecuting, and removing immigrants who have entered
the United States illegally or overstayed their visas.
The cost of mass deportation?: $206 to $230 billion over five-years,
depending on how many illegals leave voluntarily. That’s an average cost of $41
billion to $46 billion per year for five years. About 10 million illegals would be
subject to deportation, according to the study.1
Advocates for tougher immigration laws say the estimates are too high.
Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies argues, for example, that
as many as 50 percent of illegals would leave voluntarily if the government were
to initiate an aggressive deportation policy. By contrast, the study assumes only
10 to 20 percent would leave voluntarily.
Rep. Tom Tancredo (R.–CO) called the study “an interesting intellectual
exercise” that is “useless…because no one’s talking about” mass deportation.
Rather than deport individuals he would impose fines and impose sanctions on
employers who employ illegals—something the government has stubbornly
refused to do.
We believe that neither the pro- nor the anti-immigration groups are
asking the right questions. Neither side has assessed the costs of maintaining the
status quo, i.e., the annual costs of an immigration policy that refuses to either
stem the influx of illegal aliens or deport illegals already here.
Illegal aliens are poorer than natives. They are eligible for welfare, medical
assistance, and housing subsidies. Like all people, they enroll their children in
school, drive on roads, and require police, fire, and sanitation services. They are
also more likely to be incarcerated.
They also pay taxes. Even when working “off the books” illegal
immigrants can’t avoid paying excise, sales and other taxes. So the fact that they
receive public benefits does not necessarily mean they are a net drain.
Unfortunately, every study of the fiscal impact of immigration finds that the
public expenditures attributable to illegal immigrants exceed their tax payments
by a wide margin.
In addition there are indirect economic costs. Illegal immigrants reduce
the incomes and employment opportunities of U.S.-born workers. Since the 1986
amnesty illegal aliens have become the largest contributor to U.S. labor force
growth. Immigrant inflows—about one-third to one-half of which are comprised
of illegal immigrants—accounted for almost half of U.S. labor force growth in
recent years, and even more in certain areas and industries.2
About 15 percent of U.S. workers were foreign born in 2004, up from 10
percent in 1990. Exactly how much of a reduction this has had on incomes of U.S.
born workers cannot be known with certainty. A study by Harvard University
Professor George Borjas concludes, however, that every 10 percent increase in the
U.S. labor force due to immigration reduces wages of native workers by about
3.5 percent.3 If Borjas is right, the income lost by displaced native born workers is
enormous and growing rapidly.
In this paper we will show that, no matter how high the costs of deporting
illegal aliens may seem, the costs of not deporting them are larger still.
Complete text linked below in PDF format:
http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/index.php?PageID=1
http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/pdf/deportation.pdf
