The PRC, COVID-19, & the Chinese Long Game

[Yooper]

I am now more persuaded than not that COVID-19 is part of Communist China's "long game." I was finally kicked over to the side of "Chinese malice" from my previous position of "China's lying, but the origin was an unfortunate event" after reading a post from CDRSalamander this morning about how our COVID-19 expenditures (i.e., the various "stimuli") will sink our initiative to rebuild our navy. Now figure in the myriad of other second- and third-order effects we will face and you might see why I'm now a bit pessimistic about us and more wary of Chinese intent.

Back to Salamander. While our efforts to rebuild our navy will probably proceed at a much-reduced pace (if, at all), China's military capabilities probably won't suffer (much) over the next ten years. Meaning, we are confronted with the PRC being a legitimate peer competitor in the Far East, most of the Pacific, and Africa (listed in order of lessening competition).

We care about each death, China doesn't care about a million. The CCP can rest comfortably in the knowledge that their "citizens" will "suck it up" because, in the end, they really have no recourse but to do so.

Additionally, China won't pay a long-term economic cost. Chinese leadership knows the rest of the world is addicted to the crack that is "lower landed cost"; our companies will flock back to China-based manufacturing the minute "optics" make it safe to do so.

We are now seeing reporting that lends credence to the Wuhan Flu being a bio-lab "oops." Maybe, but I'm becoming more and more convinced SARS-CoV-2 wasn't an "oops" in any sense the word is meant; instead, I am becoming more and more convinced the whole thing is an elaborate ploy with accompanying ruses in support of the CCP's "Long Game."

I knew we were at war with China at the brush fire level before COVID-19 (e.g., Chinese Fentanyl, etc.), But I'm convinced we are well past that now. Things keep going the way they are and we may see a full-on forest fire within the next decade.

Change my mind.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Kyle]

And count on their investment and attention to select Middle eastern and African nations to assist them with their effort.

 

[gemma_rae]

Change my mind.

--- End of line (MCP)

Not to change your mind but to gain additional insight.

I read something earlier that Putin has his critics in Russia that say his sending supplies to other countries, one being the U.S., was a wasteful P.R. stunt, and that now Russia is going to be short of resources to battle the virus themselves. In light of this, how do you envision Russia's response to news of this being unleashed by China? I think I'm asking is would Russia support a retaliatory action against China, or would they circle the wagons with their communist brethren?

 

[UglyBear]

We care about each death, China doesn't care about a million. The CCP can rest comfortably in the knowledge that their "citizens" will "suck it up" because, in the end, they really have no recourse but to do so.

I suspect that this was a bio-weapon lab "oops" that CCP, once it started spreading, took full advantage of.
If indeed this is "boomer remover", it's a double-win for CCP -- they have too many old people who did their job, and now are just a burden on the state. No old people -- no need to spend state money to take care of them, no bad optics of millions of old people in hunger and poverty.

Also, they are really selling this inside China as "bad outside world is all against us and is trying to hurt us" -- for a reason.
I long suspected that China's economy is sliding down, and for CCP to stay in power they will need to substitute "Hey! We CCP are making a country better! Don't revolt against us!" for "CCP did what we could, but outside people are against us and we need to hit them back".
Thus I suspect Taiwan or even Japan is going to be hit very shortly.

 

[BernieP]

Well it turns out we paid for it. Sensitive State Department cables were leaked showing that in 2019 the embassy sent inspectors to the facility outside of Wuhan. They found the situation so dire they sent these cables warning of the risk. The reason they were there was because the US government gave them a grant to study viruses.

 

[Yooper]

...would [Russia} circle the wagons with their communist brethren?

I think this is more likely than Russia "siding" with us. BUT....

Russia is in a bit of a competition with China for the title of "World Champion Not Named The U.S." So my sense is that while Russia won't fully side with China it sides with China.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Yooper]

I suspect that this was a bio-weapon lab "oops" that CCP, once it started spreading, took full advantage of.
If indeed this is "boomer remover", it's a double-win for CCP -- they have too many old people who did their job, and now are just a burden on the state. No old people -- no need to spend state money to take care of them, no bad optics of millions of old people in hunger and poverty.

Also, they are really selling this inside China as "bad outside world is all against us and is trying to hurt us" -- for a reason.
I long suspected that China's economy is sliding down, and for CCP to stay in power they will need to substitute "Hey! We CCP are making a country better! Don't revolt against us!" for "CCP did what we could, but outside people are against us and we need to hit them back".
Thus I suspect Taiwan or even Japan is going to be hit very shortly.

Well said. Nicely done bringing in other aspects (China domestic and China foreign). And probably spot-on correct.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Yooper]

Just saw this:

It’s Time for a Cold War With China - The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator | USA News and Politics

In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, China has shown the United States that it cannot be trusted as a reliable economic partner or global citizen. To

spectator.org

I agree with the idea. Maybe not a "cold war" (like with Russia), but certainly a fairly "cool" one.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Clem72]

I am now more persuaded than not that COVID-19 is part of Communist China's "long game." I was finally kicked over to the side of "Chinese malice" from my previous position of "China's lying, but the origin was an unfortunate event" after reading a post from CDRSalamander this morning about how our COVID-19 expenditures (i.e., the various "stimuli") will sink our initiative to rebuild our navy.

Did you mean to post this in the C19 humor thread? Sure, it may derail plans to "rebuild" the Navy, but as-is we have 10 times the ability to project force over the water that they do (20 carriers to 2). We are not neck and neck and every ship makes a critical difference, in fact I'm pretty sure they would rather we waste 10s of billions on additional carriers and jets (it's not like 25 or 30 would make any difference) vice going a more cost effective route like spending a few 10s of millions on new Cyber Dets.

 

[Yooper]

Did you mean to post this in the C19 humor thread? Sure, it may derail plans to "rebuild" the Navy, but as-is we have 10 times the ability to project force over the water that they do (20 carriers to 2). We are not neck and neck and every ship makes a critical difference, in fact I'm pretty sure they would rather we waste 10s of billions on additional carriers and jets (it's not like 25 or 30 would make any difference) vice going a more cost effective route like spending a few 10s of millions on new Cyber Dets.

Some random thoughts....

The point I was trying to make was that China is close to being a peer competitor in almost every area (and already there in many). One metric is naval projection. China is doing something Russia/Soviet Union was never able to do: be both a land and sea power. Plus, they are already an economic power and a cyber power.

Not sure I agree with your naval projection comment from this perspective: what one needs to do/wants to do determines what ships one deems valuable. We have carriers because we need to (or believe we do). China, on the other hand, is trying to build a carrier force because it wants to for prestige purposes (rather than necessity). They are better served with subs and smaller ships (e.g., frigates, destroyers, coastal craft, etc.) and that's where China is focusing its building efforts.

But yes, I agree, China would like us to spend billions on carriers. But carrier spending isn't the thrust of Salamander's comments over the years (or the article I mentioned). I think Salamander would agree with you that spending so much for a single carrier is dumb. As is spending so much money on fiascoes like the DD(X) or LCS. Salamander is concerned that China is outpacing us in a number of areas that should matter to a naval power; areas that will eventually threaten our ability to project force (if not already). These are the building projects I mentioned in the previous paragraph.

And yes, I agree with you as to the need to redirect stupid funds to things that give us a much bigger bang for the buck; like cyber dets.

Anyway, here's a link to the CDRSalamander article I referenced (where he lays out the naval aspect; with spreadsheet, etc.):

Keeping an Eye on the Long Game: Part LXXXV

It will be at least a year, more likely two, until we have a firm grip on the impact the mountain of immeasurable debt the USA and other n...

cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

As far as the "oops," I think @UglyBear makes a good point (in post #4). So no, I didn't intend this to be posted in the C19 humor thread.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Gilligan]

Did you mean to post this in the C19 humor thread? Sure, it may derail plans to "rebuild" the Navy, but as-is we have 10 times the ability to project force over the water that they do (20 carriers to 2). We are not neck and neck and every ship makes a critical difference, in fact I'm pretty sure they would rather we waste 10s of billions on additional carriers and jets (it's not like 25 or 30 would make any difference) vice going a more cost effective route like spending a few 10s of millions on new Cyber Dets.

You might not have been paying attention to China’s naval building programs.

 

[Gilligan]

Put another way..the Chinese naval shipbuilding capacity absolutely dwarfs our own..and they are using all of it.

 

[Hijinx]

I no longer am satisfied that this was released by mistake,but if it was it certainly works well for China.We need to do a lot of rethinking about what comes to America from China. Our medicine for instance. Letting China buy American meat packers. Sending our meat to China for processing.

One thing that stands out for me is that they closed a Chinese owned Smithfield plant because over 200 employees there tested for Corona.
How in the hell did that happen. Where else has any industry had such occurences of Corona.?
They closed the plant now they send our pork bellies and hams to China for their consumption?
Don't these people wear masks and gloves and work clothing when they process this meat?
It just seems suspiscious to me.

As for carriers I am certainly no expert, but to me today's Carrier is what the Battleship was in 1942. Obsolete.
A big target with 6,000 men on board. With today's missiles can they really be protected?

 

[GURPS]

With today's missiles can they really be protected?

Probably not

 

[Yooper]

A short article addressing what this coronavirus is and does. A short read (<3-5 minutes):

Coronavirus Basics; This Is a Hardy Little Bugger

A little basic information on coronavirus.

healthy-skeptic.com

What is also interesting is the closing paragraph:

I am not a conspiracy nut, but given some of the characteristics of this virus and the proximity of the Wuhan bio-research lab that was working on modifying coronaviruses to the epicenter of the virus, it is worth exploring whether this is an escaped, modified virus. In any event, we are fortunate that despite its apparent high transmissibility and hardiness, the virus seems to be unable to infect or cause serious illness in the vast majority of the population.

emphasis mine

I was "introduced" to Roche via the Powerline blog. I find his blog quite interesting (and not just wrt COVID-19).

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[Yooper]

Speaking of Powerline, this just came across my desk:

Observations on the Great Hunkering (9)

• Don't look now, but it seems China's mendacious deception is not limited to concealing disease vectors. From the Wall Street Journal early this afternoon: China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power despite Beijing’s assertions that it is strictly adhering to...

www.powerlineblog.com

Here's the part of the blog post that applies to this thread:

• Don’t look now, but it seems China’s mendacious deception is not limited just to concealing disease vectors. From the Wall Street Journal early this afternoon:

China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power despite Beijing’s assertions that it is strictly adhering to an international accord banning all nuclear tests, according to a new arms-control report to be made public by the State Department. . .
The concerns stem from the high tempo of activity at China’s Lop Nur test site, extensive excavations at the site, and Beijing’s purported use of special chambers to contain explosions. Another factor feeding U.S. suspicions is the interruption in past years of data transmissions from monitoring stations on Chinese territory that are designed to detect radioactive emissions and seismic tremors.

To keep up with all things China, bookmark the Committee on the Present Danger/China. Their hour has come.

And Rep Michael Waltz (R, FL & National Guardsman) just echoed others' thoughts on Dana Perino's The Daily Briefing that China is already waging a Cold War against us.

--- End of line (MCP)

 

[GURPS]

This tale just keeps getting better and better. There was some talk about this Wuhan coronavirus emerging from a lab. There was a wet market aspect as well. Was this a bioweapon that got loose? Did China purposefully release this virus to create global economic chaos? Some of these questions are grounded in fact while others are more for the tin foil hat crew. For now, it looks like the virus originated in China and was part of a research project that evidently went awry. Just as we have scientists here who work 24/7 identifying new viruses and finding ways to combat them, China was trying to do the same, with the exception that they suck at it. China was researching ways to stop viruses and ended up releasing a global pandemic. Also, the blaming of the wet markets appears to have been done to pivot blame away from the laboratory. Fox News's Bret Baier and Gregg Re have more:

COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan laboratory not as a bioweapon, but as part of China's effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States, multiple sources who have been briefed on the details of early actions by China's government and seen relevant materials tell Fox News.

This may be the "costliest government coverup of all time," one of the sources said.

The sources believe the initial transmission of the virus was bat-to-human, and that "patient zero" worked at the laboratory, then went into the population in Wuhan.

[…]

Documents detail early efforts by doctors at the lab and early efforts at containment. The Wuhan wet market initially identified as a possible point of origin never sold bats, and the sources tell Fox News that blaming the wet market was an effort by China to deflect blame from the laboratory, along with the country's propaganda efforts targeting the U.S. and Italy.

[…]

China "100 percent" suppressed data and changed data, the sources tell Fox News. Samples were destroyed, contaminated areas scrubbed, some early reports erased, and academic articles stifled.

[...]

Additionally, the sources tell Fox News the World Health Organization (WHO) was complicit from the beginning in helping China cover its tracks.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattv...uhan-coronavirus-originated-in-a-lab-n2567016

 

[Hijinx]

The "sources" sound credible, but then they are anonymous and as such always leave doubt.
I really don't need a source to inform me that the Chinese flu came from China and they have hidden the truth.
The W.H.O. has either done a piss-poor job or thye have aided the Chinese in hiding the truth.

Nancy Pelosi has tried to start a new investigtion to hang this mess om Trump, why is it that we haven't heard of her starting an investigation into the Chinese and the W.H.O.

 

[herb749]

The "sources" sound credible, but then they are anonymous and as such always leave doubt.
I really don't need a source to inform me that the Chinese flu came from China and they have hidden the truth.
The W.H.O. has either done a piss-poor job or thye have aided the Chinese in hiding the truth.

Nancy Pelosi has tried to start a new investigtion to hang this mess om Trump, why is it that we haven't heard of her starting an investigation into the Chinese and the W.H.O.

She doesn't want to lose that political funding that comes from China.

 

[BernieP]

Did you mean to post this in the C19 humor thread? Sure, it may derail plans to "rebuild" the Navy, but as-is we have 10 times the ability to project force over the water that they do (20 carriers to 2). We are not neck and neck and every ship makes a critical difference, in fact I'm pretty sure they would rather we waste 10s of billions on additional carriers and jets (it's not like 25 or 30 would make any difference) vice going a more cost effective route like spending a few 10s of millions on new Cyber Dets.

Recently read a piece on how people look at the numbers to determine the strength of our Navy.
Of those 20 carriers, how many are at sea? How many are waiting either to be refueled of because the rest of their battle group isn't seaworthy?
Sheer numbers mean little, it's the types of ships, submarines, planes, etc. Readiness, supportability, how long can we sustain a group at sea.
How many theaters of operation does our Navy have to support?

There are at present 4.5 hot spots, South China Sea, (PRC), The Black Sea, Med, (Russia), Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman (Iran) and Piracy as well as Venezuela and narco terrorism along our southern flank.