The S&P 500

PeoplesElbow

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
I think it is going to bleed out for a couple more weeks. Hopefully just a couple more weeks. I have been out of stock since the third week of May, I jumped the gun a bit and would been better off if I had waited till the middle of Sept but can't win them all.
 
DoWhat

DoWhat

Deplorable
PREMO Member
PeoplesElbow said:
I think it is going to bleed out for a couple more weeks. Hopefully just a couple more weeks. I have been out of stock since the third week of May, I jumped the gun a bit and would been better off if I had waited till the middle of Sept but can't win them all.
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You do not lose any money until you sell.
 
PeoplesElbow

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
DoWhat said:
You do not lose any money until you sell.
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Missing an opportunity is losing money.

I was figuring on a 10% correction, figured I would get out save that 10% of value and get back into the C fund at a 10% discount.

I made out some in 2008 with this strategy.
 
b23hqb

b23hqb

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
PeoplesElbow said:
Missing an opportunity is losing money.

I was figuring on a 10% correction, figured I would get out save that 10% of value and get back into the C fund at a 10% discount.

I made out some in 2008 with this strategy.
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Opportunity can never be recovered. I've had a bad week, and am downgrading my risk tolerance tomorrow from moderate to conservative for a while.
 
T

tommyjo

New Member
PeoplesElbow said:
Missing an opportunity is losing money.

I was figuring on a 10% correction, figured I would get out save that 10% of value and get back into the C fund at a 10% discount.

I made out some in 2008 with this strategy.
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Only one problem, by your own admission, you blew the front side call. You got out too low.

Your second problem is that you have about a 100% chance of blowing the back side call (when to get back in) as well.

According to your rough exit time, you panicked around 24.5 on C fund...in mid Sept the C fund was in the low 26s...so your already lost out on about 7.3% return opportunity and you've missed your divs that would have been reinvested (another opportunity you have already lost). . Of course, you won't get back in if it goes down 10% (that's IF the C fund falls a full 10%)...you'll miss that too (for no other reason than you are human and for the additional reason that you are obviously overconfident in your abilities).

That's a brilliant plan you are working on.

2008 was a SLIGHTLY different market than now. Although if your math then was as suspect as it is now...
 
PeoplesElbow

PeoplesElbow

Well-Known Member
tommyjo said:
Only one problem, by your own admission, you blew the front side call. You got out too low.

Your second problem is that you have about a 100% chance of blowing the back side call (when to get back in) as well.

According to your rough exit time, you panicked around 24.5 on C fund...in mid Sept the C fund was in the low 26s...so your already lost out on about 7.3% return opportunity and you've missed your divs that would have been reinvested (another opportunity you have already lost). . Of course, you won't get back in if it goes down 10% (that's IF the C fund falls a full 10%)...you'll miss that too (for no other reason than you are human and for the additional reason that you are obviously overconfident in your abilities).

That's a brilliant plan you are working on.

2008 was a SLIGHTLY different market than now. Although if your math then was as suspect as it is now...
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Think what you want but in 15 years I have built a balance of a bit over 400k. So lets say I save myself a 10% drop that is 40k, it took a really long time to save that first 40k.

I know that I am not going to hit the peaks, as long as I save myself something on the drops I am very happy, even if I get back in on the downward side.

Nonw of the funds pay dividends they are figured into the share price. It wasn't the C fund that I got out of I was using C for simplicity sakes, it was L2040 that I got out of. I went to 25% into the F and 75% in the G. I passed the same share price I got out at this past week, except what I put into the G and F grew so right now I have more than I would have had if I stayed in.

Pretty sure there are more bad days ahead.
 
DoWhat

DoWhat

Deplorable
PREMO Member
PeoplesElbow said:
Think what you want but in 15 years I have built a balance of a bit over 400k. So lets say I save myself a 10% drop that is 40k, it took a really long time to save that first 40k.

I know that I am not going to hit the peaks, as long as I save myself something on the drops I am very happy, even if I get back in on the downward side.

Nonw of the funds pay dividends they are figured into the share price. It wasn't the C fund that I got out of I was using C for simplicity sakes, it was L2040 that I got out of. I went to 25% into the F and 75% in the G. I passed the same share price I got out at this past week, except what I put into the G and F grew so right now I have more than I would have had if I stayed in.

Pretty sure there are more bad days ahead.
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C Fund last 12 months 19.83%
 
mamatutu

mamatutu

mama to two
PeoplesElbow said:
I have increased my risk with my attempts at timing the market, I am doing it for the possibility of increasing my returns.
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I used to work for a market timer back in the day in Potomac. He couldn't even get it right, and that was his biz. I saw some pretty bad stuff while I was in his employ. My advice is play it safe. If you are nervous about the market, only keep about 25% in; the rest cash. Then again, many of the money gurus on tv/books, etc. say leave it and ride it out. All I know is that my parents put their faith in Merrill Lynch since I was a wee one, and they lost a bundle. I would say just go with what your gut tells you, as in your intuition and what feels right for you.
 
DoWhat

DoWhat

Deplorable
PREMO Member
mamatutu said:
I used to work for a market timer back in the day in Potomac. He couldn't even get it right, and that was his biz. I saw some pretty bad stuff while I was in his employ. My advice is play it safe. If you are nervous about the market, only keep about 25% in; the rest cash. Then again, many of the money gurus on tv/books, etc. say leave it and ride it out. All I know is that my parents put their faith in Merrill Lynch since I was a wee one, and they lost a bundle. I would say just go with what your gut tells you, as in your intuition and what feels right for you.
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Do you know that I consider you an idiot?
 
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