The trend continues

[transporter]

Nearly half of Texans won’t vote for Trump, new poll says

The Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found 48 percent of Texas voters surveyed early this month would definitely not vote for Trump. Another 35 percent say they would definitely vote for him. Fourteen percent of Texas voters say they would consider voting for Trump.

 

[Gilligan]

Trend?..what trend?

 

[Rommey]

Maybe I'm missing something in their calculations:

From September 4 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,410 self-identified registered voters in Texas with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 456 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

The total pool of those surveyed is 1410. They specifically cite 456 Democrat and Dem-leaning Independents. Does one assume the other 954 are Republicans and Republican-leaning independents? Without knowing how many independents are included in the various columns, its hard to tell exactly how they arrived at their numbers. Why specifically cite the 456 number and not show the totals of R/D/I?

8. In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?
Definitely Voting for: Total 35%; Republican 77%; Dem 3%; Ind 22%
Consider Voting for: Total 14%; Republican 14%; Dem 1%; Ind 21%
Definitely Not Voting for: Total 48%; Republican 7%; Dem 93%; Ind 52%

Definitely Voting for: Total 35% of 1410 equals 494 respondents
Consider Voting for: Total 14% of 1410 equals 198 respondents
Definitely Not Voting for: Total 48% of 1410 equals 677 respondents