Twitter's turn to go public

What do we figure Twitter is worth?

I'm hearing it being valued in the 10 to 20 billion dollar range. For comparison, the market is currently valuing Facebook a little north of 100 billion dollars.
 
215 million monthly active users (what about daily actives?)

A half a billion tweets a day

$317 million in revenues last year


EDIT: They say daily actives are more than 100 million.
 
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How can I get Twitter stock?

If you have a broker it's possible that they might be able to get you some in the IPO, but I'd guess that's unlikely. It seems that Twitter isn't going to do what Facebook did and offer a lot of stock in the IPO. Facebook at first proposed to offer about $5 Billion worth and ended up offering a lot more than that, Twitter has started by proposing to offer $1 Billion worth. That will probably go up some, but I suspect no where near what Facebook offered.

Anyway, regular folks like us will probably have to wait to buy stock after it starts trading. (Unless you're not regular folk like us, of course - if you're rich and connected and everything, you can probably get some in the IPO. :smile:) As the process moves along we'll get more details, e.g. when the IPO will occur and trading will begin. I'll let you know as we find more stuff out.

We do know the ticker symbol: TWTR
 
The Twitter IPO price should be announced later today, and it will start trading under the ticker symbol TWTR on the NYSE tomorrow morning. As of Monday, Twitter estimated the IPO price as between $23 and $25 a share and they're floating 70 million shares with the option for underwriters to buy 10.5 million more. That would make the offering worth about $2 Billion.

With these new shares, there'll be more than 500 million common shares outstanding and $25 / share would value the company above $13 Billion. For comparison, the current share price of Facebook (around $50) values that company at more than $120 Billion.
 
earned on what ?
Advertisements ?



the need to up the character count ... the world is not limited by 142 characters in SMS anymore

Yes, most of their revenue comes from advertising - e.g., promoted accounts and tweets. They also get some revenue (10-15% of the total) from selling access to data.

Just to be clear though, Twitter still loses money.
 
The IPO priced at $26. That values the company at about $14 Billion based on the outstanding common shares and at about $18 Billion if you consider existing RSUs and options.

TWTR will start trading sometime this morning, depending in part on how much initial activity it sees. My guess would be 10 AM or shortly thereafter.

Anyone interested in owning TWTR?


EDIT: Here's their prospectus filed this morning detailing certain financial information.
 
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GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
I take it you think those valuations are too high? Fair enough, what do you think the companies are worth? And on what do you base that?

does price of the stock really show the 'value' of a company and its earnings ...

especially in this day and age ... when the credit dries up and governments collapse - what is the value then ?

Toilet paper maybe ....

maybe this is over simplification:


 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
They also get some revenue (10-15% of the total) from selling access to data.

Just to be clear though, Twitter still loses money.


seems to me another 'faux' business .... brought about by the information age ... I guess another form of the Telephone company .... Twtr provides a service not a physical product ....


that was my thought, who wants to by stock in a business that LOSES Money ...
 
Wow! TWTR's going to open above $40. Unlike Facebook, it seems they left quite a bit of money on the table. I suspect what happened with Facebook, and all of the attention it got, lead Twitter to be fairly conservative in pricing the IPO relative to what initial demand might have supported. It looks like those that were able to get an allotment in the IPO, and who choose to flip their shares quickly, will be able to make some quick money.
 
GURPS - I'll get back to you on the notion of valuing things and why someone might want to invest in a company while it's still losing money a bit later.
 
Ay, caramba! Twitter's trading above $51 this morning. After bouncing around in the low $40s for about a month after it went public, it's broken out in the last week.

I still don't know what to make of it, so I've stayed away - way too much potential downside combined with way too much potential upside (particularly long term) for me to figure out what a fair (risk-weighted) current valuation would be. Some things are just too hard to quantify, and there are plenty of other things / plays / risks that are easier to quantify.

Anyone thought about putting some money in TWTR?
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
Cramer: Market absolutely smitten with Twitter

Cramer: Market absolutely smitten with Twitter


People always criticize the multiple that Twitter commands.

But that hasn't stopped Twitter from setting a new intra-day high this week, without any real catalyst to speak of.

Skeptics are all but certain Twitter bulls are running right into a brick wall.

After about a month as a publicly traded company, Twitter is now trading at roughly double its IPO price and has a market cap is about $26 billion while revenue for the third quarter was merely $168.6 million.

According to published reports to support even a valuation of $8 billion, Twitter will need to grow its revenues at a compounded growth rate of nearly 30% per year for the next ten years.

By any reasonable standard, the valuation is should not be sustainable. It's just a matter of time before the house of cards comes tumbling down, skeptics say.

Jim Cramer isn't so sure.

"People love Twitter," Cramer said. That is, they love to Tweet and re-Tweet and read other people's Tweets. And people don't behave rationally when they're in love.
 
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