Ukraine / Russia - Actions and Reactions

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Biden Allows Ukraine to Use US Long-Range Missiles in Russia’s Kursk: Reports



Anonymous U.S. officials have said that President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the United States to strike targets in the Russian region of Kursk, which is currently occupied by Ukraine in the ongoing war.

Ukrainian forces launched a significant cross-border operation into Russia’s region of Kursk earlier this year. Intense fighting is ongoing as Russian forces attempt to reclaim lost territory. Ukraine seized several settlements and is still holding strategic positions. In response, Russia has allowed 11,000 North Korean soldiers to amass in Kursk to aid its fight.

Last year, in response to North Korea supplying Russia with long-range ballistic missiles, the Biden administration already greenlighted the use of the long-range Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs—with a range of about 190 miles—by Ukraine for targets within its territories, including in Russian-occupied Crimea.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
🔥🔥 Late last week, many folks were disconcerted by Joe Biden’s warmth and friendliness in welcoming President Trump to the White House. It seemed … unreal that Biden would happily help Trump’s transition. This weekend, the other orthopedic slipper dropped. A 100% anonymously sourced story appeared in Sunday’s New York Times headlined, “Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles.” Nice transition you had there!

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Get ready for constant media talking heads chattering about the dumbest military acronym ever formulated (which is saying a lot): ATACMS (pronounced gleefully as “attack-ems”). Biden’s secret order, or something, “authorized” martial law commander Zelensky to fire U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles at Russia, using real-time US satellite guidance intel, which the Russians have warned in writing would be a declaration of war.

“Mr. Biden’s decision,” the Times understatedly explained, “is a major change in U.S. policy.” And right as Biden was on his way out, too. Was this the deep state’s way of using ATACMS to FUBAR Trump’s peace deal, by making it as hard as possible to end the Proxy War? Is war itself the goal? To give you some idea of the sky-high stakes, yesterday Robert Kennedy captured the moment in a tweet:

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(On the other hand, shortly after that, RFK tweeted about playing with his cute granddaughters and a small but feisty ghost crab on the beach, so it isn’t exactly time to panic yet. Maybe in a few more minutes.)

ATACMS stands for Army TACtical Missile System. The highly mobile system fires surface-to-surface precision-targeted missiles up to 200 miles away —from New York to DC— and then drives away to a new safe spot, which the Army neatly calls “shoot and scoot.” The Ukrainians first got hold of ATACMS in March. Headline from Politico, April 24:

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Russia’s capital, Moscow, lies within the 200-mile ATACMS range, when launched from Ukraine.

In March, the first thing Zelensky did with his new, secretly supplied ATACMS was launch them at defenseless civilian targets in Russia, like the apartment buildings pictured above, a war crime under international rules, and worse, a target with zero strategic value except bad optics. Zelensky’s retarded misfire created great excitement at the Pentagon, and caused flummoxed US generals to put down their eyeliner pens and rethink whether Zelensky could be trusted with a child’s BB gun much less an advanced missile system.

Logic finally penetrated the Pentagon’s ever-present fog of injected estrogen, and they strapped a bunch of new rules on the ATACMS, stopping the uncontrollable and unpredictable Ukrainians from blasting away at everything in sight. We gave you those missiles to fight a war, not knock over apartment buildings, the generals scolded.

Despite enthusiastic application and a pronounced generosity with its dwindling supplies of missiles, the ATACMS never measurably benefited the Ukrainians. When they are used by Americans against non-peer adversaries, ATACMS are probably pretty devastating. But when used against an experienced, rival military like Russia’s, which enjoys top-notch air defenses, ATACMS has been notably much less effective.

Even when firing at undefended civilian targets, ATACMS still requires high-precision satellite targeting data. Ukraine, a failed state, lacks its own satellites. So after relentless nagging by the Ukrainians, to avoid going crazy, the US now supplies the satellite location digits whenever Ukraine wants to shoot at something. The Pentagon must have some kind of a hotline, 1-800-CF-SNAFU or something.

Anyway, since the Ukrainians couldn’t hit a barn door without American help, that is why —as certainly as Vladimir Zelensky has secret offshore bank accounts— the Russians will just as certainly blame the United States for the war crimes Ukraine commits using our ATACMS, since we provide all the targeting data, not to mention the tech support hotlines.

The extra-long article —it prints to 7 pages, single-spaced— contained only one attributed quotation. Everything else was anonymous. And that single named quote was just a throwaway line attributed to hawkish Republican Representative Michael Turner (R-Oh.), who dares Russia to start World War III.

As a critical news consumer, always inventory the sources for any news claims. The bigger the claim, the more sources you usually want. This particular article coughed up seven full pages of information without even once saying where the information came from. Fail.

Even if it actually came from an inside source, no responsible journalist would agree to stenograph all this information without some kind of external confirmation. Otherwise, what makes these reporters any different from being secretaries?

In other words, since the three reporters —apparently, nobody wanted the full credit (or blame)— all soiled their midwit reputations to deliver a steaming pile of non-journalism, it seems most likely this article was a deep-state press release. So, based on evidence from the article, the deep state stirred the Proxy War pot this weekend by releasing this “news” through its pet media outlet, the New York Times.

We simply cannot know why they did it. There may be some great, secret reason. Since they aren’t saying, we can speculate. My best guess is they are trying to poison the peace well by making the Russians madder than wet Siberian huskies, in a snowstorm, even if doing so risks full-on nuclear war.

But it’s late in the game, and these kinds of maneuvers are unpredictable. They can just as easily create new possibilities as bollux things up. I note that President Trump himself posted nothing responding to the now widely-reported Times exclusive, which is a solid negotiating tactic.




 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member



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SamSpade

Well-Known Member
This might work in Trump's favor.

To be honest - I can only see a few paths to peace in Ukraine, and none of it involves Ukraine getting all of their land back. They WILL have to cede some of it, which grates on my every nerve, because this slow pace appeasement is how Russia has gained - South Ossetia, Abkhazia, the Crimea - and so on. That's what they do. They can't attack the Baltic States because they're all NATO now, and ditto Finland - but watch them start to retake other break-off republics, with the same "reason" - the regions they take are majority ethnic Russians who want to rejoin Russia - and so they set up fake referendums and just - take it.

HOWEVER - I can see Trump saying - END the war. You keep one region of the Donbas, none of the southern provinces you've taken (they're not ethnically Russian but they more or less cut Ukraine off from the sea). If you do this, we promise to delay Ukraine's entrance to NATO for ten years or more. If you do not, we will line the existing border in Finland and Ukraine with long range missiles.

Oh and you have to return all of the captured women and children.

You have 24 hours for your answer.
 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Pentagon Claims, without a Scintilla of Evidence, That DPRK Troops are On the Ground in Kursk Region​




For very obvious reasons I don’t believe them. However, that said, take an elevated position on the issue for a moment and ask yourself, ‘what are the implications if the United States Pentagon are fabricating claims about North Korean troops on the ground in Kursk, Russia?’

The United States Defense Department asserted today that DPRK troops are on the ground in the Kursk region. Actual North Korean troops on the battlefield fighting against Ukraine. Has anyone seen any single physical attributable example, a picture, a photograph, a video, a satellite image, a drone video, a declassified field report; heck, anything – anything at all – to support such a claim?


This claim, and the total lack of evidence for it, is really nuts if you think about it.

Where are the journalists who look at these officials and say, “prove it.” I mean, the path we are traveling ends in a very dark place for the U.S-NATO and Russia. Shouldn’t someone, anyone, ask some very pointed questions? Where the heck is Biden?

New York Times – Early this morning, Ukraine’s military launched a volley of American-made ballistic missiles into Russia for the first time. The attack came on the 1,000th day of the war and less than a week after President Biden gave the Ukrainians permission to do so in a major shift of American policy.

The strike targeted an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of southwestern Russia, causing explosions, Ukrainian officials said. Russian officials claimed to have shot down five of the six missiles. The use of long-range American weapons was a show of force that demonstrated how continued Western support could help Ukraine more easily degrade Russian forces.

The pre-dawn attack struck an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of southwestern Russia, Ukrainian officials said. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said that Kyiv used six ballistic missiles known as ATACMS, for Army Tactical Missile System. A senior American official and a senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations, confirmed that ATACMS were used.

The strike represented a demonstration of force for Ukraine as it tries to show Western allies that providing more powerful and sophisticated weapons will pay off — by degrading Russia’s combat capabilities and relieving pressure on Kyiv’s overstretched forces.


 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member
Especially in light of the latest developments, this morning the New York Times ran a remarkably ominous story headlined, “U.S. Closes Its Kyiv Embassy, Warning of ‘Significant Air Attack’.” The sub-headline added, “The unusual alert came a day after Ukraine used American-made ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time.” In other words, they know they poked the bear.

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On Monday, with Biden’s blessing, Ukraine fired six ATACMS (“attack-ems”) ballistic missiles deep into Russia, far from the front lines and far from any combat area. Afterwards, Russia said its air defenses shot down five rockets and damaged the sixth and, while there was some property damage, thankfully no one was killed.

At a news conference yesterday, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, darkly warned “We take this as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia, and we will react accordingly.”

Responding to Lavrov’s comment, the story reported that Brave Sir Robin, sorry, I mean the chicken-lipped State Department, sent an urgent cable to the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, ordering it closed and all U.S. personnel to flee and hide, I mean “shelter in place,” off-site.

The hot takes yesterday on social media went stratospheric, all predicting imminent nuclear war and the End of Everything. While I totally disagree with Biden’s decision (if it was his decision), I caution any decisions to panic just yet. Since Trump is incoming, both Kiev and Moscow are jockeying to improve their negotiating positions before any bargaining begins, as the Times admitted:

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So it is very difficult to discern what is real escalation and what is just positional bargaining. We don’t, and can’t, know.

Meanwhile yesterday, a pair of undersea fiber-optic cables in the Baltic were mysteriously ‘damaged,’ and despite having no evidence, Finland and Germany instantly accused the Russians of sabotage. Who knows. But … don’t they always first accuse Russia? And then much later on, we find out it was us all along?



 

GURPS

INGSOC
PREMO Member

Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says



Security experts said it would be the first military use of an intercontinental ballistic missile. ICBMs are strategic weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads and are an important part of Russia's nuclear deterrent.

"Today there was a new Russian missile. All the characteristics – speed, altitude – are (of an) intercontinental ballistic (missile). An expert (investigation) is currently underway," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video statement.

The Ukrainian air force said the missile was fried from the Russian region of Astrakhan, more than 700 km (435 miles) from Dnipro in central-eastern Ukraine. It did not specify what kind of warhead the missile had or what type of missile it was. There was no suggestion it was nuclear-armed.

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"If true this will be totally unprecedented and the first actual military use of ICBM. Not that it makes a lot of sense given their price and precision," Andrey Baklitskiy of the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research posted on X.

German security expert Ulrich Kuehn posted: "It looks as if Russia has today used an intercontinental ballistic missile in a war for the first time in history, against the civilian target Dnipro."

Some military experts said the ICBM launch, if confirmed, could be seen as an act of deterrence by Moscow following Kyiv's strikes into Russia with Western weapons this week.

"An ICBM launch can certainly be seen as a threatening gesture, potentially in response to the lifting of restrictions on ATACMS and Storm Shadow. It’s a means of deterrence," said a European military source.

Russian war correspondents on Telegram and an official speaking on condition of anonymity said Kyiv fired British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia's Kursk region bordering Ukraine on Wednesday.

Russia's defence ministry, in its daily report of events over the previous 24 hours on Thursday, said air defences had shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles but did not say where.

Ukraine also fired U.S. ATACMS missiles into Russia on Tuesday after U.S. President Joe Biden gave the all-clear to use such missiles, two months before he leaves office and Donald Trump returns to the White House. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks.
 
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