Unemployment Claims Drop to Lowest Number in 45 years
- Thread starter GURPS
- Start date
transporter
Well-Known Member
Here is the 10 yr trend of initial jobless claims:
Can you point out the change in the trendline under Trump?
Here is the graph of initial unemployment claims for the past year:
Do you see any statistical significance in the latest report vs the last year?
Here are the actual numbers for the last year: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/wkclaims/report.asp
We've been in the 220's at least three time in the past year. We've also been as high as 298. Now if you were to read the actual report https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf you would note in the second paragraph that we have continuing reporting problems from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Additionally, anyone who follows these reports (which you obviously don't) knows that a move of 41,000 indicates an issue somewhere in the system. A state or states failed to report...weather impacted reporting...or some such thing. This happens often. (Note: this is why no one freaked when claims approached 300K in Sept...because that was due to the hurricanes)
So, for the ignorati, the claims numbers are good...they are very good. But they are the continuation of a trend. This week's report of 220k and it's historical low is not statistically significant from the 225k, 227k, or 229k we saw at other points during the year. If this number is revised upwards in the coming weeks (as tends to happen with large one weeks moves like this), will you report it?
Can you point out the change in the trendline under Trump?
Here is the graph of initial unemployment claims for the past year:
Do you see any statistical significance in the latest report vs the last year?
Here are the actual numbers for the last year: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/wkclaims/report.asp
We've been in the 220's at least three time in the past year. We've also been as high as 298. Now if you were to read the actual report https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf you would note in the second paragraph that we have continuing reporting problems from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Additionally, anyone who follows these reports (which you obviously don't) knows that a move of 41,000 indicates an issue somewhere in the system. A state or states failed to report...weather impacted reporting...or some such thing. This happens often. (Note: this is why no one freaked when claims approached 300K in Sept...because that was due to the hurricanes)
So, for the ignorati, the claims numbers are good...they are very good. But they are the continuation of a trend. This week's report of 220k and it's historical low is not statistically significant from the 225k, 227k, or 229k we saw at other points during the year. If this number is revised upwards in the coming weeks (as tends to happen with large one weeks moves like this), will you report it?
littlelady
God bless the USA
Nice catch, GURPS! It is all about the bait you use! 
