What's Your Strategy for NFL picks?

Rael

Rael

Supper's Ready
Besides blind luck :lmao:

This past week (#4) was a blind luck one for me, damn lucky to get the 5 pernter. And week 5 is even tougher in my mind. So many ways to calculate a selection.

Points for, points against, which teams played which team, injuries, home field advantage, conference history (past records), momentum, key players, plain intuition....? My guesses have been on PF, PA, conference, home field advantage, one I didn't mention...roll of the dice.

Anyone care to share?
 
Pete

Pete

Repete
I have a very complex algorithm that is based on 21 different statistics. It takes me 4 days to breakdown the games and input the data, then I run it and it outputs the games in the order of the most probable win versus the point spread.


















Or I do like Firebrand. :lmao:
 
MMDad

MMDad

Lem Putt
I used to put some effort into it, but that didn't work. So I started letting my daughter pick. That worked great.

This year, I started letting my son pick, but he's as bad as me. I fired him after last week, and brought back my daughter. She can't be any worse than I was, so why not?
 
gumbo

gumbo

FIGHT CLUB !
Rael said:
Besides blind luck :lmao:

This past week (#4) was a blind luck one for me, damn lucky to get the 5 pernter. And week 5 is even tougher in my mind. So many ways to calculate a selection.

Points for, points against, which teams played which team, injuries, home field advantage, conference history (past records), momentum, key players, plain intuition....? My guesses have been on PF, PA, conference, home field advantage, one I didn't mention...roll of the dice.

Anyone care to share?
Click to expand...

USA Today...Wednesday edition.
 
BS Gal

BS Gal

Voted Nicest in 08
I use the tupperware bowl method NOW. Put the opposing teams, one by one, in a tupperware bowl and let the co-worker pull them out. I haven't used that method this season, yet, but seems I need to get back to it. Coworker wasn't around this week so I had to look at the stats and decide my own self. The tupperware thing works well, though.
 
Larry Gude

Larry Gude

Strung Out
Yup...

FireBrand said:
I go down the list once and only once,
go with my first gut reaction...
Click to expand...

...and the ones I don't get an instant reaction to I come back to and try and add in injury reports, re-asses the teams relationship; division foe? Who lost last week? Home field? History? And I try to double, triple check the 5 pointer which far to often I just end up throwing to the Skins anyway. :lmao:

The key to this pool is the 5 pointer.
 
Rael

Rael

Supper's Ready
The five pointer is definitely the key. Without that one, a losing week. That's why it will be interesting how this changes over the weeks, it is going to happen for sure.

I scan the list, and after not having a clue on which one go by basic gut (said earlier). When I look at the results of last week, it makes me roll the dice a little more this week.

Call me scientific (not)! :wink:
 
Geek

Geek

New Member
I am not sharing my strategy with anyone. You can all kiss it. MMdad already ripped off my picks :tantrum
 
Rael

Rael

Supper's Ready
One thing I don't do is watch the rest of us pick first, no,no,no bad juju (another strategy, non-Bingo mindset...meaning a free and clear mind when choosing, rather than a superstitious approach) Anyone know Bingo players?

Besides...if we all waited for the others to choose, nobody would ever pick, now would they? :biggrin:
 
Otter

Otter

Nothing to see here
I go with home teams and what they are spotting/getting..but after doing this same thing for 15 yrs with a cowboy fan, I'm amazed at how close the odds makers are..its a crap shoot.
 
Pete

Pete

Repete
otter said:
I go with home teams and what they are spotting/getting..but after doing this same thing for 15 yrs with a cowboy fan, I'm amazed at how close the odds makers are..its a crap shoot.
Click to expand...

LAst week there were a bunch of 1 point games werent there? The week before a couple pushes.
 
BS Gal

BS Gal

Voted Nicest in 08
otter said:
I go with home teams and what they are spotting/getting..but after doing this same thing for 15 yrs with a cowboy fan, I'm amazed at how close the odds makers are..its a crap shoot.
Click to expand...

Hey, from now on, my picks are the same as Gumbos. Just put them down as that so I don't have to stress about this thing. TIA.
 
Rael

Rael

Supper's Ready
Edit: should have quoted Otter. Quote is your friend, remember Rael.

I hear ya. But something makes me real uncomfortable looking at a 16 or more point spread in the NFL. And yes, the pushes. You're right, crap shoot
 
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