Voters have short memories. It all depends on what happens in the next 12 months. If the economy picks up and joblessness improves and the situation in Iraq gets a lot better - he almost certainly will win. If none of those things happen OR if something really worse happens - it will be close. The two biggest problems the Democrats face is they so far haven't latched onto at least one issue that isn't about being George Bush, and that they haven't fielded even one candidate that the public cares about. In way too many polls, a majoirty of Americans still can't name a single one of these guys. They don't like them.