World Recession?..what?

stgislander

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
Wow. And the author even referenced sites the TJ uses.

I found the idea of a "savings glut" interesting. He even mentions American "salting away" money because retail sales were flat. I can't believe he talking about the lower and middle-class American consumer. From what I can see, they have no money to "salt away". They are too busy servicing debt.
 
T

tommyjo

New Member
stgislander said:
Wow. And the author even referenced sites the TJ uses.

I found the idea of a "savings glut" interesting. He even mentions American "salting away" money because retail sales were flat. I can't believe he talking about the lower and middle-class American consumer. From what I can see, they have no money to "salt away". They are too busy servicing debt.
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Ding! Ding! Ding!

Without even knowing it, stgislander has highlighted a major point that is factually incorrect in the article. (Actually that is misstated...I should have said ONE of the major factually incorrect parts of the article.)

This is what the article said:

This time they are faced with a chronic low-growth malaise - partly due to a global 'savings glut', and increasingly to a slow ageing crisis across most of the Northern hemisphere.
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As you correctly pointed out, there is no "savings glut"...people aren't spending like normal because they are still paying off debt associated with the run up to the credit crisis. Oh...and just to add to the author's ignorance...the elderly SPEND their savings...they don't ADD to their savings!

Gilligan can now go search the world press to find another article stating we are in recession. Hey Gilligan, next time you find one, at least have the common sense to locate an author who understands that a recession, by definition, means GDP is NEGATIVE.
 
MMDad

MMDad

Lem Putt
tommyjo said:
a recession, by definition, means GDP is NEGATIVE.
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Funny, every definition I can find says that it's negative growth. You know, like the first quarter of this year. Please point us to a reputable source that states that a recession is negative GDP.

Since we still had a positive GDP during the infamous Bush crash, are you denying that it was a recession?

We even had a positive GDP during the Great Depression. Odd.
 
stgislander

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
MMDad said:
Funny, every definition I can find says that it's negative growth. You know, like the first quarter of this year. Please point us to a reputable source that states that a recession is negative GDP.

Since we still had a positive GDP during the infamous Bush crash, are you denying that it was a recession?

We even had a positive GDP during the Great Depression. Odd.
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I don't know if it is a reputable source, but this seems to jive with what TJ says.

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/economics/negative-growth-3746

If the GDP is increasing quarter to quarter, growth is positive. Conversely if the GDP is decreasing quarter to quarter, growth is negative. A few consecutive cycles of negative growth equals recession.
 
MMDad

MMDad

Lem Putt
stgislander said:
I don't know if it is a reputable source, but this seems to jive with what TJ says.

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/economics/negative-growth-3746

If the GDP is increasing quarter to quarter, growth is positive. Conversely if the GDP is decreasing quarter to quarter, growth is negative. A few consecutive cycles of negative growth equals recession.
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She did not say negative growth, she said negative GDP. If GDP goes from $16T to $15T we are definitely in a recession, but since $15T is a positive number it is not negative GDP. It is negative growth.
 
Gilligan

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
MMDad said:
Larry thinks he's the only one boinking Gilligan?
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Jeez. You need to keep up on the complex and ever-changing forum relationships. I thought TJ was only fixing post-coital sammiches for me. But then I discover that she has the hots for Larry...and now maybe SGI is gettin' some of that action too??
 
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stgislander

stgislander

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
MMDad said:
She did not say negative growth, she said negative GDP. If GDP goes from $16T to $15T we are definitely in a recession, but since $15T is a positive number it is not negative GDP. It is negative growth.
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The way I interpreted the link's definition, negative growth in the GDP is the same as saying negative GDP. But then I'm not an economist nor do I play one on television. My wife's an ergonomist... is that close enough? :shrug:
 
Larry Gude

Larry Gude

Strung Out
Gilligan said:
TJ needs to buy some plane tickets and run over there and set those alarmists straight. :yay: L]
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be nice if there was some way she could just write them, maybe in real time, and set them straight on an ongoing basis instead of having to be there. I mean, she goes over there, whose gonna keep us in line???
 
b23hqb

b23hqb

Well-Known Member
PREMO Member
MMDad said:
GDP is negative? Is that even possible? That would mean that not only do you produce nothing, you produce negative nothing.
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We have millions here in the US that produce negative nothing. They take, and then reproduce more that take. Exponential negative producers.
 
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