PeoplesElbow
Well-Known Member
Wall Street doesn't seem to like Liberation Day. Afterhours trading tends to over react somewhat to news, but I can't say I've seen this broad of an after hours selloff.
Wow after hours trading has been brutal
- Thread starter PeoplesElbow
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PeoplesElbow
Well-Known Member
Just watching, had considered making a big move earlier today and thought best to hold off.
So, you're moving out to safety or are trading options? Crypto is a good place to make some big bucks if you place your bets right. $ETH has to be the easiest 2X in history, if not much higher.
I'm kind of in the David Hunter camp: One last big run up this year in the current multi-decade supercycle, then the bottom falls out up to 80% down, then recession, then inflation starts again as they try to pump things back up with low to near zero rates. And then the markets move into a multi-year commodities cycle, while many stocks that were previous darlings may not see their ATH's again for decades (think of Intel and Cisco after the 2000 crash).
Not sure how they can possibly kick the can down the road much longer.
I'm kind of in the David Hunter camp: One last big run up this year in the current multi-decade supercycle, then the bottom falls out up to 80% down, then recession, then inflation starts again as they try to pump things back up with low to near zero rates. And then the markets move into a multi-year commodities cycle, while many stocks that were previous darlings may not see their ATH's again for decades (think of Intel and Cisco after the 2000 crash).
Not sure how they can possibly kick the can down the road much longer.
This guy is pretty good, the Maverick of Wall street. He used to do the trading for an unnamed hedge fund and now sells his private service where he guides people in daily options trading. Or, you can watch his free macro-level analysis which are usually release on Sunday nights. The most recent one he warns that it is 2000 all over again:
One thing that seems to be a common thread is that it never happens when or how most people think.
One thing that seems to be a common thread is that it never happens when or how most people think.
PeoplesElbow
Well-Known Member
Ain't that the truth.
My Walmart is my biggest concern right now, I had taken 90% of my TSP out of stocks about 6 weeks ago and was thinking about getting back in for that 10% discount earlier today, looks like I can probably safely assume at least another 10% discount.
Just trying to make some more money, I'm 50 and might be given an option to retire here shortly, decision will be a lot easier if I got some more bacon in the freezer. I made a few bucks off crypto, its just not for me, i was going to say too exposed to the whims of governments but....
You hear constantly that you have to have x dollars before you retire. Some say $500k, some $1million, others more. And I'm only speaking from personal experience here, and not everyone's situation is the same, but I retired 'early' at 59. And everyone just kind of thinks your investments just kind of stop making money when you retire, and whatever you have in the bank is what you have to live on. My SS is modest, as is my pension (fortunate enough to have one), and the balance of my income is from my IRA (used to be my 401k, rolled over into the IRA). What I've found is that my IRA continues to make far more than I take out (using the modest 4% rule), and with the other incomes, my reported income is more now than ever before (age 70). I guess the point I'm trying to make is that it's nice to have as much put away as you can before retirement, but I found it to not be as important as I once thought. Unless you make some serious blunders with investments or there is another 1929 event, just keep making wise choices and it will be ok.
Major down-turns in the market aren't as important either. It goes down, it will come back up. At one point during the pandemic downturn, my account lost a couple of 6-figure. All came back, plus some.
Major down-turns in the market aren't as important either. It goes down, it will come back up. At one point during the pandemic downturn, my account lost a couple of 6-figure. All came back, plus some.
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I guess it depends on what your retirement plans are. If you want to cruise the world and travel extensively, you should probably have some serious money socked away. But people dream of doing that, and they never do. They pretty much live how they've always lived, just don't go to work anymore.
Probably more important is planning for what happens when you can no longer take care of yourself and have to have help or go into a facility.
Anyway, the market doesn't like change and tariffs are a big change. If it works out like Trump thinks it will, the market should rebound nicely. I figured it would be rocky the first year with all the changes taking place.
Kinnakeet
Well-Known Member
For sure...and when it goes down your buying on the cheap so you have more when it goes back up!
PeoplesElbow
Well-Known Member
Absolutely, that last part is also insanely expensive, most people rely entirely on medicaid to pay for it.
Me I'm planning on buying a log cabin style house on a big piece of land in the mountains somewhere. This is what the ROTH IRA I've been building is for, can pull it all out at once with no tax hit.