Hogan-Jealous Debate

[Kinnakeet]

Calm down and think. Imagine, if you will, what sort of laws a guy like Jealous might have signed over that same timeframe. Hogan lives with a legistlature that can, and will, override any veto he places. So he has to choose which hills to die on. For everyone in the state, not just gun owners. Would you like him to be like those silly Republicans in the US House, who spent two years crafting and passing Obamacare repeal bills they knew would never clear the Senate, and even if they did would get vetoed by Obama? Wasting his limited time and poliical capital fighting battles he knows damn well he has no chance of winning while pisssing away chances to changes the things he can?

How about maybe you help him spend another four years showing MD Dems that maybe the R designation doesnt mean people you cant work with you? Becuase your vote not going to Hogan means some freeloaders vote for Jealous's Gravy Train gets through. Thanks for that.

I can agree with some of your post but why sign more gun laws

 

[glhs837]

I can agree with some of your post but why sign more gun laws

Maybe becuase they were damn well gonna make worse ones that he couldn't stop no matter what and the ones he did sign were he least he could talk them into? Remember, these legislators like to override his veto more than I like to ride my motorcycle, which I do up to 100 degrees, and down to single digits and even in the rain.

https://www.google.com/search?q=hogan overridden vetos&cad=h

Sometimes you have to acknowledge that you simply cannot do more than you can do, and you get done what you can.

 

[NorthBeachPerso]

The most recent Mason Dixon poll done after the debate has Hogan's lead cut from 22% to 15%. Seven points in 2 days. Tell me again how Jealous can't win. Negative 2%/week from now until Nov. 6 puts Jealous in Annapolis.

Before any of you crucify me I wouldn't vote for Jealous if he was the only one running, just saying that Hogan isn't the shoo-in some of you think.

 

[glhs837]

The most recent Mason Dixon poll done after the debate has Hogan's lead cut from 22% to 15%. Seven points in 2 days. Tell me again how Jealous can't win. Negative 2%/week from now until Nov. 6 puts Jealous in Annapolis.

Before any of you crucify me I wouldn't vote for Jealous if he was the only one running, just saying that Hogan isn't the shoo-in some of you think.

Not sure that 2% loss per week is realistic, or how well the Goucher and Mason-Dixon results relate to each other, but who knows. Anythings possible.

 

[NorthBeachPerso]

Not sure that 2% loss per week is realistic, or how well the Goucher and Mason-Dixon results relate to each other, but who knows. Anythings possible.

That 2%/week is what Ehrlich lost in October 2006 against O'Malley and lost the election.

 

[mdff21]

Trump was losing in all the polls too.....just saying

 

[glhs837]

That 2%/week is what Ehrlich lost in October 2006 against O'Malley and lost the election.

Hmmmm, this chart appears to not back that up at all. Do you have another source?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2006


Source Date O'Malley (D) Ehrlich (R)
SurveyUSA November 5, 2006 50% 47%

Baltimore Sun/Potomac Inc. November 1, 2006 47% 46%

Wall Street Journal/Zogby October 31, 2006 49.3% 43.9%

Public Opinion Strategies October 31, 2006 46% 45%

Rasmussen October 30, 2006 50% 47%

Washington Post October 29, 2006 55% 45%

Rasmussen October 17, 2006 53% 45%

USA TODAY/Gallup October 6, 2006 53% 41%

Baltimore Sun/Potomac Inc. September 24, 2006 50% 44%

Survey USA September 20, 2006 51% 44%

Rasmussen September 20, 2006 49% 42%

Wall Street Journal/Zogby September 11, 2006 52.5% 39.6%

Wall Street Journal/Zogby August 28, 2006 52.0% 42.2%

Rasmussen August 18, 2006 50% 43%

 

[NorthBeachPerso]

Yeah, it looks like I misremembered the numbers. But I'll still maintain that that election was Ehrlich's to lose. And he did. That's why I'm not orgasming over Hogan's numbers.

 

[littlelady]

Yeah, it looks like I misremembered the numbers. But I'll still maintain that that election was Ehrlich's to lose. And he did. That's why I'm not orgasming over Hogan's numbers.

Hogan is a Flake.

 

[willie]

Hogan is a Flake.

Spoken like a true Montgomery countian.

 

[littlelady]

Spoken like a true Montgomery countian.

You are mistaken. I am not a true Montgomery countian. I ended up here, twice, against my will because life happens, and I hate it here, but I love why I am here. It is called family. First time here started in 1986, and second time was in 2016. In between, I lived in Calvert. You have, obviously, not read my responses on this forum; over time. And, no, Hogan is not a true Republican. No big surprise these days. That’s the thing about an anon social media site. People comment when they have no idea what they are talking about. Thanks for your reply. Happy foruming. And, you can bet your bippy that I will be voting Repub in November.

P.S. I was born and raised in NOLA.

 

[toddeberly]

If he called the debate a draw, that means Hogan was amazing and Jealous was his usual self. If Jealous had made any kind of showing, even a little bit, SMCM would have called it a walkaway win for him.

I don't know. I think have a reputation for being pretty fair. I rated each exchange between Jealous and Hogan and in the end it came out a draw - in my opinion.

 

[toddeberly]

Not sure that 2% loss per week is realistic, or how well the Goucher and Mason-Dixon results relate to each other, but who knows. Anythings possible.

For what it's worth - when you factor in their error margins the Mason Dixon and Goucher polls really aren't very different. Gonzales Research is polling this week and those results are likely to be out next Tuesday. That should help to settle whether or not there's been any real change in the race since the Gonzales poll 5 weeks ago that showed Hogan ahead by 16 points.

http://freestaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/making-sense-of-hoganjealous-polls.html

 

[stgislander]

Welcome Todd. I enjoy reading your blog.

 

[littlelady]

Welcome Todd. I enjoy reading your blog.

Thanks for the heads up on Todd’s blog. :like:

 

[Kinnakeet]

Hogan is a Republicrat

 

[glhs837]

For what it's worth - when you factor in their error margins the Mason Dixon and Goucher polls really aren't very different. Gonzales Research is polling this week and those results are likely to be out next Tuesday. That should help to settle whether or not there's been any real change in the race since the Gonzales poll 5 weeks ago that showed Hogan ahead by 16 points.

http://freestaterblog.blogspot.com/2018/10/making-sense-of-hoganjealous-polls.html

Thanks, that's the sort of analysis that while I'm not qualified to perform, I know needs done to understand the data better.

 

[Salmon]

I can’t believe anyone buys the BS spewed by Hogie. Maryland is a blue state and Jealous is a true progressive. I don’t see the trepidation about him.

 

[glhs837]

I can’t believe anyone buys the BS spewed by Hogie. Maryland is a blue state and Jealous is a true progressive. I don’t see the trepidation about him.

There, made it simple. Doesn't take a long memory to think back to the massive increase in fees and taxes, and you pal Ben makes Owe' Malley look like a penny pinching miser.

 

[NorthBeachPerso]

I can’t believe anyone buys the BS spewed by Hogie. Maryland is a blue state and Jealous is a true progressive. I don’t see the trepidation about him.

Well, yes and no. About 4 Counties are reliably Blue (Montgomery, Prince George's, Howard [to an extent], Charles [now, but Democrats from there historically ranged from conservative to a bit to the right of Attila the Hun] and Baltimore City. The rest range from purple to deep Red.

The trepidation over his "progressive" stances is the cost. You can give free #### out all day but somebody has to pay for it in the end. And typically people receiving the free #### don't or pay very little.