Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
I will say this : 15 / 25 dollar an hour min wage will bring about automation in fast food industry's
... also IMHO that would be the end of tipping waitresses and bar tenders
[except perhaps in upscale places]
this was interesting :
A friend of mine is in fact A Bank Teller [in Michigan] she will soon lose her Sat shift because the Credit Union she works for is replacing the ATM with an ITM or
Interactive Teller Machine
All of the branches are getting these machines.
From now on, someone in a 'Central Office' will handle the Interactive part remotely.
She could pick up a Sat Shift working in the remote site, but has no interest in driving the 45 min to the main branch.
The 'Jobless Future' Is A Myth
Ford is currently giving appreciative interviews left and right, as his message of “the jobless future” sweeps the media. Others such as Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Steve Wozniak have expressed similar concerns. Many mainstream social scientists have accepted the findings. The conclusions, writes the Wall Street Journal, are “all but inevitable.”
Inevitable but wrong.
The Flaws In The Reasoning
- There are a number of flaws in the reasoning in Ford’s book.
- One flaw is the underlying assumption that whatever is feasible will occur. In science fiction, this may be true, but not in real life.
The fact that a Concorde can fly faster than a Boeing 767 doesn’t mean that Concordes replace 767s. The outcome depends on the costs and benefits of developing and operating the two types of aircraft. Airlines and airline passengers have not embraced Concordes because it’s not economical to do so.
Similarly, the fact that a computer can do something better than a human being doesn’t mean that the computer will replace the human being. The market will determine whether it is economical to do so, given the costs and perceived benefits.
A second flaw in the reasoning is the implicit assumption that computers with miraculous performance capabilities can be developed, built, marketed, sold, operated and replicated at practically zero cost and that they will have zero secondary employment effects. In reality, huge teams of people are often necessary to perform these tasks at considerable cost. So it’s not obvious either, on the one hand, that the necessary investments will be made or, on the other hand, that the secondary effects of the innovation on employment will be irrelevant or negative..
I will say this : 15 / 25 dollar an hour min wage will bring about automation in fast food industry's
... also IMHO that would be the end of tipping waitresses and bar tenders
[except perhaps in upscale places]
this was interesting :
But surely computers are already replacing humans, doomsayers like Ford cry. We can see it every day! Machines are cheaper and better and more reliable! ATMs are replacing bank tellers! PCs are replacing secretaries!
A friend of mine is in fact A Bank Teller [in Michigan] she will soon lose her Sat shift because the Credit Union she works for is replacing the ATM with an ITM or
Interactive Teller Machine
All of the branches are getting these machines.
From now on, someone in a 'Central Office' will handle the Interactive part remotely.
She could pick up a Sat Shift working in the remote site, but has no interest in driving the 45 min to the main branch.
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