1600 Daily

[This_person]

Fortunately someone AWPITT did it for me.

I did not see Awpitt provide an answer to your analysis of how less people could be out of work, but the workforce participation rate is flat.

Additionally, I also provided DJIA data. My data does not look at months of presidency, but rather looks at just the last five years. While there was a trend upwards already, the rate of change shifted drastically positive in the end of 2016. To what do you attribute this?


Also, since the only thing Awpitt posted was DJIA data, would you say that the DJIA is your single point of analysis of your claim that the economy was already improving? For example, if the unemployment rate was rising but the Dow was also rising, would you still say that the overall economy was improving? How about if the national debt were completely consuming the tax base such that the government could do little except pay interest on the debt, would you still say the economy was improving if the Dow was rising in that situation?

I'm just trying to understand the depth of your analysis that said the economy (not the Dow) was improving.

 

[Sapidus]

I did not see Awpitt provide an answer to your analysis of how less people could be out of work, but the workforce participation rate is flat.

Additionally, I also provided DJIA data. My data does not look at months of presidency, but rather looks at just the last five years. While there was a trend upwards already, the rate of change shifted drastically positive in the end of 2016. To what do you attribute this?


Also, since the only thing Awpitt posted was DJIA data, would you say that the DJIA is your single point of analysis of your claim that the economy was already improving? For example, if the unemployment rate was rising but the Dow was also rising, would you still say that the overall economy was improving? How about if the national debt were completely consuming the tax base such that the government could do little except pay interest on the debt, would you still say the economy was improving if the Dow was rising in that situation?

I'm just trying to understand the depth of your analysis that said the economy (not the Dow) was improving.

I never claimed that Trump's presidency didn't give consumer confidence or the Dow jones a bump.

What i said was that these are continuations of trends that have been ongoing for years while the unemployment rate has also been going down for years. Foreclosures are down action wide and home sales are up as well.


Trumps policies have only been in effect for 4 months so anything other than feelings and guesses which is what the Dow and consumer confidence are based on are not overly relevant prior to that an can't be attributed to Trump.

 

[This_person]

I never claimed that Trump's presidency didn't give consumer confidence or the Dow jones a bump.

Nor did I imply that you didn't say it. You said the economy was already improving - that time during Trump's administration was simply a continuation of the trend.

Then, I showed data that showed the DJIA was not a continuation of the trend, but rather a marked change for the better.

So, you said the Dow is what you based your analysis on. That's not exactly a consistent thought process.

What i said was that these are continuations of trends that have been ongoing for years while the unemployment rate has also been going down for years. Foreclosures are down action wide and home sales are up as well.

Do you have time-based data to support that there is little change? As in, is it a continuation of the trend, or a drastic change in the trend (one way or another) since Trump took office?

Trumps policies have only been in effect for 4 months so anything other than feelings and guesses which is what the Dow and consumer confidence are based on are not overly relevant prior to that an can't be attributed to Trump.

Really? Were there no regulation changes or anything that went into effect more than four months ago?

 

[Sapidus]

Nor did I imply that you didn't say it. You said the economy was already improving - that time during Trump's administration was simply a continuation of the trend.

Then, I showed data that showed the DJIA was not a continuation of the trend, but rather a marked change for the better.

So, you said the Dow is what you based your analysis on. That's not exactly a consistent thought process.




Do you have time-based data to support that there is little change? As in, is it a continuation of the trend, or a drastic change in the trend (one way or another) since Trump took office?

Really? Were there no regulation changes or anything that went into effect more than four months ago?

Get a grip on reality.


The economic has seen an upward trend for the last number of years.

Business and consumer confidence was increased because Trump ran on a platform of American Job and business first.

Obviously that is going to increase business and consumer confidence.


Now that his policies are going into effect we will see if these trends continue or if Trump screws it all up.

 

[Gilligan]

Get a grip on reality.

You playing here all week? I'll be sure to tip my waitress.

 

[This_person]

The economic has seen an upward trend for the last number of years.

You keep saying that, but you don't back it up. I asked what you were using as an indicator for that, and you said Awpitt provided your data, which was the DJIA. We can see that the DJIA was rising VERY slowly, and shot up at the time of the election of President Trump. That's not a continuation of a trend, it's a new trend (faster rate).

So, are you changing your position that a slight rise and a steep rise are the same thing, or are you sticking with the factually inaccurate?

Now that his policies are going into effect we will see if these trends continue or if Trump screws it all up.

Were there no regulation changes or anything that went into effect more than four months ago? [sorry to repeat a question, again, but you chose not to answer one - again]

 

[Sapidus]

You keep saying that, but you don't back it up. I asked what you were using as an indicator for that, and you said Awpitt provided your data, which was the DJIA. We can see that the DJIA was rising VERY slowly, and shot up at the time of the election of President Trump. That's not a continuation of a trend, it's a new trend (faster rate). That's a trend dumbass

So, are you changing your position that a slight rise and a steep rise are the same thing, or are you sticking with the factually inaccurate?



Were there no regulation changes or anything that went into effect more than four months ago? [sorry to repeat a question, again, but you chose not to answer one - again]

Not until budget was passed no. Everything Trump tweeted and said may have impacted the Dow jones or Consumer confidence but that is not how law and regulations are made.


I also mentioned the unemployment rate which was on a steady decline throughout the Oram administration as was homeownership. While foreclosures did the opposite.


Read for comprehension please or don't bother

 

[This_person]

That's a trend

Yes, yes it is. Very good.

But, see, what I said was that the trend had a statistically-significant shift. It was going up at (let's say) a slope of 0.2, and shifted to (let's say) a slope of 1. While my numbers are guesses based on visual observation, the point remains that it was a noticeable, significant shift in the trend.

YOu....you can....you can understand that, right?

Not until budget was passed no. Everything Trump tweeted and said may have impacted the Dow jones or Consumer confidence but that is not how law and regulations are made.

Laws and regulations are not made even close to the same way. The Code of Federal Regulations is not a Congressionally-passed volume of books. It is an executive branch function. It can change quite rapidly.

The Trump administration said it was pulling or suspending [1579] pending regulations. Of those, 469 were being completely withdrawn. Another 391 were being set aside or reevaluated. These proposed regulations could be revisited at some point or dropped altogether.

I mean, wasn't it about a year ago you were telling me how Trump changed the gun regulations? Do you not keep track of what you're upset about?

I also mentioned the unemployment rate which was on a steady decline throughout the Oram administration as was homeownership. While foreclosures did the opposite.

Yes, you did, and I showed you before you said that where unemployment has dropped, too. But, you never backup up the home ownership or foreclosure with data. Please provide that data (third request).

 

[Sapidus]

Yes, yes it is. Very good.

But, see, what I said was that the trend had a statistically-significant shift. It was going up at (let's say) a slope of 0.2, and shifted to (let's say) a slope of 1. While my numbers are guesses based on visual observation, the point remains that it was a noticeable, significant shift in the trend.

YOu....you can....you can understand that, right?

I can, which is why i said exactly that. The trend was going upward with a bump when Trump was elected. are you so caught up in being right about everything you can't even see when you are saying the same thing?



Laws and regulations are not made even close to the same way. The Code of Federal Regulations is not a Congressionally-passed volume of books. It is an executive branch function. It can change quite rapidly.

​

I mean, wasn't it about a year ago you were telling me how Trump changed the gun regulations? Do you not keep track of what you're upset about?


Yes. Through executive order he changed something Obama had put into place. Whats your point? What effect did that have on the economy?


Yes, you did, and I showed you before you said that where unemployment has dropped, too. But, you never backup up the home ownership or foreclosure with data. Please provide that data (third request).

Feel free to do your own research but if that is too much for you see below

The economy gained a net 11.6 million jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to below the historical norm.
Average weekly earnings for all workers were up 4.1 percent after inflation. The gain was 3.7 percent for just production and nonsupervisory employees.
After-tax corporate profits also set records, as did stock prices. The S&P 500 index rose 166 percent.
The number of people lacking health insurance dropped by 15 million. Premiums rose, but more slowly than before.
The federal debt owed to the public rose 128 percent. Deficits were rising as Obama departed.
Home prices rose 20 percent.
Illegal immigration declined: The Border Patrol caught 35 percent fewer people trying to get into the U.S. from Mexico.
Wind and solar power increased 369 percent. Coal production declined 38 percent. Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel dropped 11 percent.
The murder rate dropped to the lowest on record in 2014, then rose and finished at about the same rate as when Obama took office.


https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/obamas-final-numbers/

 

[This_person]

I can, which is why i said exactly that. The trend was going upward with a bump when Trump was elected. are you so caught up in being right about everything you can't even see when you are saying the same thing?

I can admit when we're saying the same thing. I'm not sure we are saying the same thing. Trump initiated a new trend, not maintained the previous trend.

Yes. Through executive order he changed something Obama had put into place. Whats your point? What effect did that have on the economy?

Well, as a general thought process, when you eliminate or at least defer 1579 regulations, while touting how you are going to eliminate more, that tends to have a positive impact on business generation (large and small).

Feel free to do your own research but if that is too much for you see below

The economy gained a net 11.6 million jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to below the historical norm.
Average weekly earnings for all workers were up 4.1 percent after inflation. The gain was 3.7 percent for just production and nonsupervisory employees.
After-tax corporate profits also set records, as did stock prices. The S&P 500 index rose 166 percent.
The number of people lacking health insurance dropped by 15 million. Premiums rose, but more slowly than before.
The federal debt owed to the public rose 128 percent. Deficits were rising as Obama departed.
Home prices rose 20 percent.
Illegal immigration declined: The Border Patrol caught 35 percent fewer people trying to get into the U.S. from Mexico.
Wind and solar power increased 369 percent. Coal production declined 38 percent. Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel dropped 11 percent.
The murder rate dropped to the lowest on record in 2014, then rose and finished at about the same rate as when Obama took office.


https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/obamas-final-numbers/

Still looking for the home ownership and foreclosure data you said. This was interesting, but had nothing to do with what you said, twice, as the data you were using.

 

[Kyle]

Still looking for the home ownership and foreclosure data you said. This was interesting, but had nothing to do with what you said, twice, as the data you were using.

He pulled it out of his ass like everything else he quotes.

 

[This_person]

He pulled it out of his ass like everything else he quotes.

Exactly why I give him graphs and tell him the sources. He can't do the same.

Now, my graphs actually supported some portions of his position (but not others), and he can't even acknowledge the ones that do.

 

[SamSpade]

But the economy was trending up during the years prior to Trump entering office. That’s just a plain fact. People who think the economic recovery, all of sudden, began when Trump was elected are unaware of the actual reality. The DJIA grew 148% during the Obama administration. During the first 14 months of the Obama administration, the DJIA grew 35%. As we sit at 14 months into the Trump administration we’re looking at a DJIA growth of 20% so far.

When you have one dollar and you gain 100% - you have two dollars - a gain of a dollar.
When you have twenty dollars and you have a gain of 20% you have 24 dollars - a gain of four.

So that's not the greatest comparison - Obama started his administration with the DJIA in the toilet.
That's not his fault, but what he IS responsible for is overseeing an economy that grew at a glacial pace afterward.
Most deep recessions have a quick bounce back - Obama's took about six years to get back where it was.

I don't have the economic acumen to prove much - and especially because you can always "prove" some aspect of the economy
was doing well or isn't improving at any snapshot in time. I know largely because of what I see, and it ain't rose-colored glasses.
My 401k is doing great, my salary is fine, my relatives' jobs are much better and my house is finally increasing in value.
So what I hear is a group on the left - who will *never* portray Trump in a good light - saying what they usually say and
what I hear is "who ya gonna believe, me, or your own two eyes?".