$730,000,000,000
- Thread starter Larry Gude
- Start date
awpitt
Main Streeter
MMDad
Lem Putt
I still cannot grasp why we allow speculation on futures and the speculators that are driving up the futures prices are the very same ones profitting from the future speculations. Why is this legal...
You know something, the press has been touting "speculators" as the problem, but are they really? Do we really think that a few investors in the US are driving the price of a worldwide commodity?
It's a very US-centric view of a worldwide problem. Suppose we stop US speculators from investing in the market. Who is hurt? The pension plans that own the futures. (Me and you, sweetie.)
Who does it help? Nobody, because there are still plenty of investors in the rest of the world who are just as willing to prop up the prices. We do not have control over them.
Will it make prices fall? No.
I saw the Pickens commercial tonight - the one where he says he's going to tell us more soon. He did say something about drilling (only?) won't get us out of this. I'll have to go check out that link.
I've seen so much back & forth about it's the supply & demand, it's the speculators, it's the corn on the cob. No wait, that's not right. I swear there's an opinion a day on it.
Just drill dammit!
I've seen so much back & forth about it's the supply & demand, it's the speculators, it's the corn on the cob. No wait, that's not right. I swear there's an opinion a day on it.
Just drill dammit!
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Profit...
...motive is the primary purpose and I'm OK with that for the most part.
The thing is, oil is not a commodity anymore. It is not perishable. It is not subject to bad seasons, wind, hail, locust or otherwise. It is a fully mature and protected industry and it is also a monopoly.
You can do without pig bellies or orange juice or Wheaties or find very suitable substitutes given a crop problem.
The speculation in commodities is there for people in the various business's to hedge their costs over time given their market expertise and experience. There were financial penalties for those outside the business, retirement funds, pure speculators and so forth, who had to pay higher margins (more money down) and higher capital gains. This started in the 1920's, the Grain Act, to keep the highs and lows driven by pure speculation in control.
The law was changed in 2000 and it's taken 7 years to be fully exploited.
I still cannot grasp why we allow speculation on futures and the speculators that are driving up the futures prices are the very same ones profitting from the future speculations. Why is this legal...
...motive is the primary purpose and I'm OK with that for the most part.
The thing is, oil is not a commodity anymore. It is not perishable. It is not subject to bad seasons, wind, hail, locust or otherwise. It is a fully mature and protected industry and it is also a monopoly.
You can do without pig bellies or orange juice or Wheaties or find very suitable substitutes given a crop problem.
The speculation in commodities is there for people in the various business's to hedge their costs over time given their market expertise and experience. There were financial penalties for those outside the business, retirement funds, pure speculators and so forth, who had to pay higher margins (more money down) and higher capital gains. This started in the 1920's, the Grain Act, to keep the highs and lows driven by pure speculation in control.
The law was changed in 2000 and it's taken 7 years to be fully exploited.
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Speculation...
...is responsible for 1/3 the cost of a barrel of oil.
If you think that isn't hurting pension plans and you and me, think again. Your plan give you $2,400 a year gain for nothing? Tax free?
...is responsible for 1/3 the cost of a barrel of oil.
If you think that isn't hurting pension plans and you and me, think again. Your plan give you $2,400 a year gain for nothing? Tax free?
This_person
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the link.
The natural gas component makes sense from the point of view of cars, but not electricity. Natural gas plants are ususally "peakers", started up and used only when demand is highest. Using natural gas to also run a large portion of cars is a fairly inexpensive conversion kit, and the fueling stations would not be hard to create as there is already a natural gas infrastructure in the country.
For the short term, coal plants are relatively quick to build, and we have incredible natural resources. But, nuclear is far cleaner and better overall. It just takes longer to build.
The wind component just doesn't make sense to me, though. Unreliable, inefficient, enormous land waste, etc., etc.
I was hoping he had a realistic plan. When he ends the video with "we need the right leadership, and we need people to cooperate", he lost me in thinking his plan was implementable.
MMDad
Lem Putt
Is it? Congress "investigated" and found no evidence of improper practices. Do you have something to share?
I still believe it is supply and demand. We demand it, we're willing to pay the price, and we pay it. We've reduced our demand in the US, but China scoops that up and keeps demand right where it was.
There are only two solutions to this: reduce global demand, or get out of the global market.
Speculators are a distraction that really has nothing to do with the problem. It's a lot easier to blame some nameless "speculators" than it is to blame ourselves for our excessive consumption and unwillingness to use alternatives.
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Thank...
...you. Wind is pretty much a joke. What makes it worse is that it is real big with people who swear the climate is changing. If so, why would you invest in something dependent on a stable, predictable climate? Hell, the wind could lessen. It could become too strong.
...you. Wind is pretty much a joke. What makes it worse is that it is real big with people who swear the climate is changing. If so, why would you invest in something dependent on a stable, predictable climate? Hell, the wind could lessen. It could become too strong.
awpitt
Main Streeter
If you watch the video on the Pickens homepage, he does a real basic explainantion of his plan. He was on CNN this morning. He doesn't say we shouldn't drill but he does say that drilling is not going to fix the problem, it is only part of the solution. One thing he pointed out is that even if we open ANWR it's production is limited by the capacity of the Alaska pipeline.I saw the Pickens commercial tonight - the one where he says he's going to tell us more soon. He did say something about drilling (only?) won't get us out of this. I'll have to go check out that link.
I've seen so much back & forth about it's the supply & demand, it's the speculators, it's the corn on the cob. No wait, that's not right. I swear there's an opinion a day on it.
Just drill dammit!
This_person
Well-Known Member
If we're willing to pay the price, and we choose to not see any alternatives as something we want, how is our consumption "excessive"?
This is a comment that always bothers me... why is the fact that we use more "excessive"? Should we make people in other countries drive more, and heat their homes more, etc., etc., so that it evens out?
MMDad
Lem Putt
The wind component makes a lot of sense in certain areas. It is relatively reliable and efficient in places that have consistent winds. It is not a land waste in places like Texas where you can put them on otherwise unused land. Farmland can also be used. Mountain passes in California have been used for decades because they natural funnel and intensify even light winds.
The only problem is the initial infrastructure expense, and the time it takes to recoup that expense. It hasn't made fiscal sense in the past, but as oil prices rise, it is becoming more feasible.
Larry Gude
Strung Out
No...
...and I never said there was anything 'improper' or 'illegal' or 'smelly' about it. In fact, I've gone to great lengths to explain the nature of it and it's legislative lineage. Legal and right are not necessarily the same thing.
With the crap dollar, crap housing and crap economy, money tries to find a good place to go. When some money finds a good place, more follows. Then it stampedes. That's all this is.
If you believe in the illusion of supply and demand and $150 a barrel oil, could you explain what happened to supply and demand yesterday that caused oil to DROP 6%? Did demand drop 6% yesterday? Did supply expand 6% yesterday? Was it 3% up for supply, 3% down for demand? Care to speculate?
As far as that goes, do you honestly think natural supply and demand accounts for oil going from $50 to $150 the last 12 months?
...and I never said there was anything 'improper' or 'illegal' or 'smelly' about it. In fact, I've gone to great lengths to explain the nature of it and it's legislative lineage. Legal and right are not necessarily the same thing.
With the crap dollar, crap housing and crap economy, money tries to find a good place to go. When some money finds a good place, more follows. Then it stampedes. That's all this is.
If you believe in the illusion of supply and demand and $150 a barrel oil, could you explain what happened to supply and demand yesterday that caused oil to DROP 6%? Did demand drop 6% yesterday? Did supply expand 6% yesterday? Was it 3% up for supply, 3% down for demand? Care to speculate?
As far as that goes, do you honestly think natural supply and demand accounts for oil going from $50 to $150 the last 12 months?
MMDad
Lem Putt
If we're willing to pay the price, why is 90% of the country whining about prices? Why are SUV sales plummeting? "Excessive" use got us these high prices. If you don't think prices are too high, then in your opinion we don't have excessive use. I disagree.
If you are able to earn (produce) $30,000 per year, but spend (use) $100,000 per year, isn't that excessive?
MMDad
Lem Putt
If you believe in the illusion of supply and demand and $150 a barrel oil, could you explain what happened to supply and demand yesterday that caused oil to DROP 6%? Did demand drop 6% yesterday? Did supply expand 6% yesterday? Was it 3% up for supply, 3% down for demand? Care to speculate?
heh. Speculate. Remember what we told you about jokes?
Speculation can definitely cause the day to day fluctuations, but that's no different than saying a 100 degree day proves global warming, or a 75 degree day proves there is no global warming. Look at the long term.
I'll make you a little wager. If oil tops $150 before the end of August, you have to kiss Toppick. If it doesn't, you get to kiss Andy.
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Larry Gude
Strung Out
Yeah...
...I'm not really feeling the motivation to make that bet. What will you kiss WHEN it goes over?
...I'm not really feeling the motivation to make that bet. What will you kiss WHEN it goes over?
This_person
Well-Known Member
It does make sense in some areas, but not at the level his plan was projecting. It's a cafe product in a mega-mall demand. At best, a home brewery in Ireland, if you catch my drift
This_person
Well-Known Member
People complain because they can.
Perhaps some people were living beyond their means, and that would be "excessive", and why sales of certain products are dropping (houses, expensive cars, etc.).
I don't think we don't have excessive use because I can afford the gas; I think we don't have excessive use because we don't have excessive use. Excessive must have some other criteria than "we use 10 times more than Ethiopians" or something like that.
Your last paragraph actually explained my point best - our use is not excessive because we (can) produce more with that oil - be it product, or "lifestyle"/quality of life, or whatever you want to claim it to be - than other countries do. It's not 30 in, 100 out, unless you're looking at just the oil domestic vs. use. For, if we are only able to use domestic product, we're in a hurt locker of "excessive use" in a lot of places, as is most every country in the world.