Every once in a while, the narrative cracks, and a little ray of truth shines through. Of course, it’s hard to see the truth through the cracks, especially the
whole truth, but at least you can see that the truth is there. It happened yesterday, when the Atlantic ran a curious weather science story headlined, “
Climate Models Can’t Explain What’s Happening to Earth.”
The story was based on a new climate study published in November titled, “
Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations.” In the study, researchers found that, on every continent except Antarctica, certain regions show up as mysterious hot spots, suffering repeated heat waves, bafflingly beyond what any current climate model predicted or explained.
After describing the study, the Atlantic invested many long paragraphs offering excuses for why experts don’t even
expect scientific models to be accurate. Failed models are not a failure of science at all; it’s how science works! Failed models show science is working.
Now they tell us. Of course, we all remember the absurdly incorrect covid models that drove nearly every dystopian pandemic rule.
The trouble for capital-S Science is that the climate scientists who worship the current
political climate model have long relied on their models to forecast planetary doom unless vastly expensive measures using your tax dollars and curtailing your freedom are undertaken immediately and without argument.
The chief scientist at an environmental “nonprofit” interviewed for the story even admitted to the Atlantic, “At the end of the day, we are all making estimates of what’s coming.” He continued, “And there is no magic crystal ball to tell us the absolute truth.”
In other words, as I have repeatedly said,
models are nothing more than
decorated guesses.
The main reason the climate models are wrong is that they don’t account for the higher atmospheric water vapor levels resulting from the historic Hunga Tonga undersea eruption, or the high solar activity producing historic aurora all over the planet’s night skies (but apparently the “experts” think all that extra energy has no effect whatsoever on the climate).
The truth is that, if they want to vacation in Aspen this year, climate model scientists must remain politically muzzled. They may only put variables into their models related to
human activity. No permission structure allows them to consider the real causes of what the article described as “far weirder weather” than the models predicted.
Under the rule limiting what variables are allowed to go into them, the climate models are condemned to failure.
This admission was good, but it is only
one article. But it’s a start! Recognizing that climate models are always wrong
might lead to questioning
why they are so wrong. For now, the Atlantic blamed a dozen irrelevant things, finally concluding that scientists are just
baffled why the models won’t work.
Still, it is progress. This admission of climate-model failure is late in coming. They clung to their models because they have nothing else after the models. But with this remarkable admission, climate-change realists can now dismiss the silly models — because they don’t work.
Maybe the scientists can start to have a real conversation soon.
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