Counting the Electorals
- Thread starter Hessian
- Start date
Hessian
Well-Known Member
50 Electoral change in ONE day!
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
(the site that is supports Kerry) just had a 50 electoral swap in one day: IN FAVOR OF BUSH! That is pretty stunning.
What are the pollsters saying???
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
(the site that is supports Kerry) just had a 50 electoral swap in one day: IN FAVOR OF BUSH! That is pretty stunning.
What are the pollsters saying???
Hessian
Well-Known Member
A bit more cautious...but still: BUSH!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html
They have more states "up in the air." but it still looks like a decent win for Bush.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html
They have more states "up in the air." but it still looks like a decent win for Bush.
Hessian said:
Have you seen the part of the website that explains the methodology for how the electoral votes are distributed? The webmaster takes the most recent poll in each state and uses that one regardless of the result. If there are two polls that are the most recent, the average is taken. How is that a partisan thing? You know, it is possible to have political convictions, but also have objective political sense.
As for the polls...look at job approval. Historically, incumbents do not usually receive a greater percentage than their final job approval rating. Newsweek has Bush's Job Approval at 46% and AP-Ipsos (which was one of only two polling firms to call the last election correctly for the national vote), has it at 47%. Undecideds, meanwhile, typically go towards the challenger at rates of close to 75%. Currently there are about 5% undecideds, so it seems natural that Kerry could experience a 4% boost from his last polling stand. The margin for Bush to pick up, meanwhile, is not anywhere near as high.
What President Bush seemingly has going for him, however, is the solid support that he has received from self-described Republicans (he receives more cross-party support than Kerry) and the possibility for a substantial, Christian right turnout should help him. But even if Bush is leading nationally, his position is many states is murky. Michigan and Pennsylvania are moving towards Kerry in polling as is Ohio. Florida is the only big state where Bush is currently leading (and I fully expect him to win there on Election Day). Wisconsin, as in years past, is moving back into the Democratic fold towards the end of the election cycle (while it is still completely in the air). New Hampshire and Maine have moved clearly into Kerry's corner as has Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon. The places where Bush has the best opportunity to take from Kerry are Iowa and New Mexico, but that only represents 12 electoral votes, which aren't enough for losing the 20 electoral votes that Ohio embodies.
I fully expect Kerry to win the last week of this campaign as Democratic constituencies, which historically make up their mind late in campaigns, move to Kerry and I fully expect Democratic turnout to be like never before. I believe that Kerry wins ever so slightly. (What I think will be intriguing, and I am growing more certain that it will happen, is if Kerry loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral vote). That is my read; but of course, you guys will discredit it as the rants of some liberal, Kerry supporter.
Bush will win if he gets the Christian Right in SWING states to turnout. It does him no good if they show up to vote in Georgia, etc. He has to carry Ohio and Florida to win...if either one slips, it will be a long night; if both slip, Kerry is the 44th president.
Hessian
Well-Known Member
Electoral Maps counter each other!
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
is gleefully giving a surge of electorals to Kerry (is this an artificial boost to build a more confident Dem voting base?)...He claims he predicted this yet it is built in direct opposition to a Newsweek Poll that says Bush is climbing in the popular vot by as much as 6%.
Meanwhile:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
still has a fairly firm Bush lead in the count. So...who is blowing smoke?
Hessian predicts Bush victory: 50-46% in popular...and at least 295 in electorals.
+++Edit to restore the RCP poll site+++
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
is gleefully giving a surge of electorals to Kerry (is this an artificial boost to build a more confident Dem voting base?)...He claims he predicted this yet it is built in direct opposition to a Newsweek Poll that says Bush is climbing in the popular vot by as much as 6%.
Meanwhile:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
still has a fairly firm Bush lead in the count. So...who is blowing smoke?
Hessian predicts Bush victory: 50-46% in popular...and at least 295 in electorals.
+++Edit to restore the RCP poll site+++
Last edited:
Dymphna
Loyalty, Friendship, Love
The first site has, by their own admission a large margin for error. Most of the electorals are in the "barely for..." categories. The second site seems to be down at the moment. Here is CNN's latest map, although a few days old, it gives the nudge to Bush.Hessian said:
Attachments
Look at all that red - and isn't it amazing that Bush and Kerry are close in electorals?
truby20
Fighting like a girl
Electoral-vote.com has a page with the current electoral college poll results as a cartogram (map with state sizes proportional to their electoral votes) giving a much better idea of how close the race is. But there has to be a better example out there, seems like he just drew a map in Paint...DE and OR are nearly the same size but OR has twice the number of votes, anyone seen a better page?vraiblonde said:
D
dems4me
Guest
SmallTown said:
I'll probably get flamed for this but what's new? I think if anyone wanted to steal or rig the elections -- either party won't focus on rigging the big electorial vote states such as Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania, etc... I think they would go flaw up the more smaller electorial states and those that are more obscure that folks won't think to pay attention to in terms of various voting irregularities... if one state out in the boonies has 7 electorial votes, no big deal but then if you have 4 more of these smaller electorial count states a little skewed too... that's 28 electorial votes... does that make sense? Just trying to throw in another prospective.
Except that it means you don't fully understand the concept of "battleground" states.dems4me said:
Some states, like Utah and Nebraska are so Republican you'd have to commit extremely obvious voter fraud to turn the election around. Similarly, New York and Massachusetts are so massively Democratic, you couldn't create enough fraud to get away with it - you'd have to make MILLIONS of votes. Not going to happen.
MOST states aren't going to be contests at all - the gap is too large to bridge, and even if someone TRIED to change it - it would so at odds with polling data as to invite investigation.
Hence - the "battleground" states - states where the vote is razor close rather than solidly in one side or the other. The largest ones are Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Either candidates almost certainly needs two of those to win. The other battleground states are Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada. Some are also looking at New Jersey and Hawaii, traditionally Democratic states that have polled close, but I think they are anomalies. They'll stay Democratic.
The same thing is true for the Senate, and especially the House. Incumbents almost always win, and most states and districts are so safe, some aren't even contested.
Your argument would make sense ONLY if the distribution of voter preference was homogeneous across all geographies, but it's not. Some states aren't even worth campaining in.
Bush HAS shown ONE interesting strategy - he has briefly campaigned in states he can't win - to gain "popular" votes. It will help him to get additional votes in margins larger than last time, so that if he wins the Electoral College, he can still have the 'popular' vote, even though that doesn't elect anyone.
D
dems4me
Guest
SamSpade said:Except that it means you don't fully understand the concept of "battleground" states.
Here's some info on the NM voters...
Sharon said:
Colorado rejects proposal to split electoral votes
Voters rejected a ballot proposal to split the votes and award them based on the statewide popular vote, according to exit polling data conducted for The Associated Press. Amendment 36 had been closely watched around the nation because it would have taken effect immediately, raising the possibility of a legal fight that could turn Colorado into another Florida.
http://www.kusa.com/acm_news.aspx?O...MPLATEID=4525fe63-ac1f-02d8-002a-f131478a1f55