Where's housing headed? Follow rents
By Shawn Tully, senior editor at largeFebruary 12, 2010: 2:49 PM ET
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- It may not be the most widespread measure of housing prices, but if you want to follow a powerful driver, look at rents.
Specifically, it's the rents Americans pay on condos, apartments or houses that are about the same size, and share the same neighborhood as your ranch or colonial, that in the end determine what your house is worth.
"If you look at the trend in rents to see where housing prices are headed, you're looking at the right measure," says Yale economist Robert Shiller...
….In normal times, people won't pay much less to lease a house than to own it. After all, if you're paying rent instead of a mortgage and taxes, you still get to enjoy the same rec room, chef's kitchen, and casita for visiting grandparents. So the surest sign of a frenzy appears when owning becomes far more expensive than renting. That's precisely what happened during the last bubble....
...And the surest sign that prices have fully adjusted arrives when the ratio of what people pay in rent versus what owners spend on the same property returns to its historic average…..
….On average, DB found that families across America were spending about 87% as much to rent as to own in 1999. Hence, they were traditionally willing to pay a premium as homeowners, though not a big one…
….But by mid-2006, with the craze in full swing, the figure fell below 60%. At that point, Americans were spending an incredible 66% more to own than to rent…..
…..So how did that happen? During the bubble, rents -- the real engine that drives values -- were inching along at more or less their usual pace. From 1999 to 2007, apartment rents increased only 32%. But home prices jumped more than three times as fast, around 105%......
…..DB reckoned that housing prices are more or less reasonable when the ratio returns to its 1999 level. Why 1999? Because the ratio was relatively stable throughout the 1990s, and it was the year the steep rise in prices began in earnest….
….What does that mean for future prices?
Given that analysis, it's likely that prices will fall another 5% or so nationwide. The drop could even be slightly greater. One reason: Rents, the force that govern housing prices, are still falling….