Dorian...curving North into Carolinas Target 9/5-6

Hessian

Hessian

Well-Known Member
Currently dulled by some of the bland reporting on the weather...I found a blog that actually does some sharp analysis and has a few tools that are frequently updated: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

5 am prognostication: Sharp curve from Florida coast & serious threat to coastal Carolinas...later next week (Thurs-Fri)
Spaghetti graphs, cones, satellite analysis--enjoy weather nerds!
 
GWguy

GWguy

*
I take my info from the National Hurricane Center website. Florida coast won't sustain a direct hit, but will still get pounded pretty well. But like you said, the Carolinas are now in the direct path. A few more degrees to the east and my brother's place will be in the direct target.

140409
 
Hessian

Hessian

Well-Known Member
GWguy said:
2pm update not different than the 11am update. Same track towards NC.
Click to expand...
"As the Hurricane Turns"...if we keep following these forecasts...looks like it will curve totally out to sea...just churn up the beaches for 1000 miles.
 
GWguy

GWguy

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Hessian said:
"As the Hurricane Turns"...if we keep following these forecasts...looks like it will curve totally out to sea...just churn up the beaches for 1000 miles.
Click to expand...
That's what I'm seeing too. As of the 5pm update, it just skirts NC. Hoping between now and next week it turns out completely.
 
LightRoasted

LightRoasted

If I may ...
If I may ...

Be nice to get another good hurricane up in this area. You know, to clear the trees of all those dead branches. Prune the live branches that need to go. Topple the trees with a weak root system. Great firewood gathering time. Being able to have the insurance company replace the roof so I don't have to. Maybe even get some new siding, or perhaps a new kitchen or bathroom when one of those tree branches or falling trees come through the house. Good things can come from a hurricane.:dye:
 
awpitt

awpitt

Main Streeter
I stick with monitoring the NHC website. They seem to be the only ones who present the weather data without all the drama. This hurricane is currently a Cat 5 but keep in mind that hurricane force winds extend 45 miles from the eye. So if it stays off the east coast, the U.S. mainland will not be impacted by hurricane force winds.
 
GWguy

GWguy

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awpitt said:
So if it stays off the east coast, the U.S. mainland will not be impacted by hurricane force winds.
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As of right now, the Outer Banks are less than 30 miles from the center of the storm track. Expect high devastation if the track doesn't move much further out.
 
awpitt

awpitt

Main Streeter
As of right now, is way too early to know anything. By the time this storm may or may not reach the outer banks, it will be a Cat 1.
 
RoseRed

RoseRed

American Beauty
PREMO Member
A friend of mine is in Kitty Hawk and they are enjoying the beautiful beach weather.
 
B

BernieP

Resident PIA
Had a friend who was not a meteorologist but was damn good at predicting the track.
He looked at the jet stream and pressure systems, the two things that steer hurricanes.
 
Hessian

Hessian

Well-Known Member
Its when the Hurricane actually gets moving...then they can get a better fix on its intentions. Also,...anything beyond 3 days out is loose speculation. I have heard that THE best model for hurricanes is the "European" model.
I have noticed that NOAA does not offer the spaghetti data on its main page...unsure why they dropped it.

As of Monday, 6 am...looks like Dorian is headed right to Beaufort NC & Cape Hatteras. That track prediction will likely shift 50-100 miles by Thursday. Florence battered the same area last year. I was down there during the clean up. SO many damaged roofs, ruined docks, lopped trees, and truckloads of siding & insulation strewn for miles. The relief teams came from ALL over....they may have to return! UGH.
 
Hessian

Hessian

Well-Known Member
Thursday night-Early Friday visit to the Outer Banks. The Sounds (Abermarle & Pamilco) will fill up due to the surge & wind...then drain pretty fast: Anticipate some changing geography along the coast...due to that interesting effect. Estuaries have already seen some subtle filling,...this might be pretty amazing when it wants to gush all that water back into the Atlantic.
140515
 
GWguy

GWguy

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For anyone that cares, here's a link to a number of cameras along the NC waterfront. Scroll down to find all the cameras. Getting a 'network error' is not uncommon, I guess just user overload.

Southport Waterfront Park

Live web cam from Southport's Waterfront Park. Enjoy the views of Bald Head Island and the busy waterway at the mouth of the Cape Fear River
surfchex.com surfchex.com
 
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Gilligan

Gilligan

#*! boat!
PREMO Member
I'm watching a live feed from Myrtle Beach of an abandoned car on the beach being buried by wave action..LOL
 
Chris0nllyn

Chris0nllyn

Well-Known Member
Newest track shifted a bit west and the eye will pass just right of Ocracoke and the Pamlico Sound.

It also means the Chesapeake Bay will be impacted. Mainly from storm surge. Most of the southern Bay (including St. Mary's County) is under a Tropical Storm Warning now.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/151958.shtml?gm_track#contents

A new forecast should be out in about 15-20 min so we'll see if it shifts anymore.

The center of Hurricane Dorian is expected to pass well southeast
of Point Lookout MD Friday afternoon. However, hazardous impacts are
expected to extend into Saint Mary`s County and the adjacent waters.
Strong winds will spread onshore beginning Friday morning continuing
into Friday night. Onshore winds ahead of Dorian are expected to raise
water levels along the shores of the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal
Potomac River. Minor tidal flooding is expected in some areas.
Moderate tidal flooding of shoreline areas is possible on Saturday.
Rainfall will likely reach southern Maryland, but flooding from
rainfall is not expected at this time.
Click to expand...
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...WX&product=HLS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
 
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