Economy shrinks...

[Tilted]

Okay, so at best the economy is anemic. We have tax hikes this quarter. When you take the anemic economy last quarter and couple it with tax hikes this quarter, then add that defense spending has slowed even more, DoD is already laying off and talking furlough, etc....

Any predictions for what we'll see in April for this quarter?

Hard to have a good sense... and my thoughts will of course change as I see what develops over the next couple of months... but my guess is that it will be fairly weak and then pick up as the year goes on. Taxes going up at the beginning of the year (e.g. the Social Security tax) will likely create a drag on consumer spending and that's a big part of what held us up in this past quarter (along with fixed investments, e.g. equipment, and real estate). Inventories should rebound and offset that somewhat though. Maybe growth of less than a percent? Who the hell knows?

 

[Larry Gude]

You are absolutely wrong. You are so wrong I do not even know where to start.

There is not one thing in your post that is correct other than the report that the advanced report on GDP was -.01. Of course, if you understood the GDP report you would know that this is only the first of 3 reports. There are two more revisions come. Had you bothered to read the actual report, instead of someone else's politically motivated interpretation, you would see that informaton clearly stated in the 1st sentence of the second paragraph. I wonder how your tune will change if the revisions show small, but positive growth????

You ignore the facts from the report (the report you obviously didn't read)...and only concentrate on the headline number...but I guess that is typical of this site...complain about something without making any attempt to understand the "why" before complaining about the "what".

Your 3rd paragraph shows a complete and utter lack of understanding of where we were in 2008/9, the causes of the recession, the historic precendents of recovery from financial crises and general economic theory as it is being displayed worldwide by different attempts to fight and recover from the crisis.

TARP did its job...could have and should have been designed better, but any, ANY data you look at today CLEARLY shows a SIGNIFICANTLY healthier financial system. You assertion that TARP had no effect is ridiculous...utterly ridiculous. Your assertion that TARP COULD NOT have any effect is beyond ridiculous.

The Stimulus also worked. Study after study has shown this (unless of course you only get your news from FOX--the "news" organization that advocates for the failure of the country so republicans can re-take the White House). Your assertion and the assertion of the far right that spending $800 billion can have no effect is ludicrious. You really think spending $800 billion has zero impact?

Your statement that spending "can not" improve an economy is disproven by both current and historical facts from both here and abroad.

Your constant whinning about energy costs is amazing. Energy costs, both in real and nominal costs are lower than they were 5 years ago. Energy prices are unlikely to drop much lower (why you fail to understand the geopolitical and geoeconomic reasons for this is beyond me)...unless of course we take your other "solution" of " HUGE" write offs.

That would be a wonderful idea if you want to cause another severe recession or a potentially depressionary downward spiral...THEN you could get your low energy prices...and maybe your blessed Republicans could retake the White House...

We did have huge writedowns at the banks back in 2007-2009...don't you recall the impact of that? Or is that just old news and not important anymore? Or is it because those occurred under the Bush adminsitration and they just don't count? Christ...your post is infuriating. You need to read, learn and obtain at least a rudimentary understanding of macro economics before you should post on this topic again.

Did someone fart?

 

[Larry Gude]

TARP did its job...could have and should have been designed better, but any, ANY data you look at today CLEARLY shows a SIGNIFICANTLY healthier financial system. You assertion that TARP had no effect is ridiculous...utterly ridiculous. Your assertion that TARP COULD NOT have any effect is beyond ridiculous. n.

I never said it had no effect, fart. TARP failed, miserably, because it worked.

What I did say, fart, was that it fixed nothing. It institutionalized Too Big To Fail and that is an enormous part of our problems.

In another example of your disdain for reading and comprehension, you speak of 'my dear Republicans' showing you don't pay any attention, at all, to what I say, what context it is in or any of it. If you choose to start reading what I say and in context and comment accordingly, great! If not, be a good little fart and dissipate.

 

[Larry Gude]

Just as a friendly aside, sweetie....I've never yet seen anyone post anything that didn't obviously infuriate you.

She is gassy. Makes people irritable, unable to read and compelled to...fart. A lot.

 

[Gilligan]

She is gassy. Makes people irritable, unable to read and compelled to...fart. A lot.

I figgered there was some man-hating in there..some unresolved failed-relationship issues...menopause..psychoses.....and yes, perhaps a problem with excess flatulant production as well.

 

[PsyOps]

Just as a friendly aside, sweetie....I've never yet seen anyone post anything that didn't obviously infuriate you.

Not to mention he called Larry 'Christ'.

 

[daileyck1]

...call me shocked. Not.

GDP Shows Surprise Drop for US in Fourth Quarter



In that single sentence lies both the problem and the solution.

No one, NO ONE should be shocked the economy is sucking. It has been sucking, it is sucking and it will continue to suck because we've fixed NOTHING.

Not TARP, not bailouts, not Stimulus, not Obamacare. NOTHING. Every single one of those things did not and can not improve the economy because they are political machinations, not sound economics.

We will not, we can not recover unless and until energy costs come down, WAY down and debt is written off. HUGE write offs.

I've been saying it because it is simple. And it's the truth. It's like we've been standing next to a blast furnace in the middle of Antarctica and the fuel is sputtering out and we're shocks, SHOCKED it's so ####ing cold outside.

Better get some more fuel (stimulus) so we can fix it some more!

Larry it shouldnt surprise you, krugman said before the stimulus was passed that it wasnt enough and we would have a jobless recovery.

 

[struggler44]

Did someone fart?

Just a QUEEF

 

[PsyOps]

What I did say, fart, was that it fixed nothing. It institutionalized Too Big To Fail and that is an enormous part of our problems.

And the sidebar to this is the flaming hypocrisy of the left praising TARP and Stimulus for bailing the very things they (Obama, liberals, and OWS) claim to hate: big business and banks.

 

[Gilligan]

Larry it shouldnt surprise you, krugman said before the stimulus was passed that it wasnt enough and we would have a jobless recovery.

You glossed over the part where Krugman and his ilk claimed that every stimulus dollar spent would be leveraged to be as much as $1.35 of economic benefit and GDP boost.....but the hindsight analyses indicated that even fitty cents on a dollar was probably being way too kind. It was simply money wasted. For nothing.

But wasn't this tread about TARP??

 

[PsyOps]

You glossed over the part where Krugman and his ilk claimed that every stimulus dollar spent would be leveraged to be as much as $1.35 of economic benefit and GDP boost.....but the hindsight analyses indicated that even fitty cents on a dollar was probably being way too kind. It was simply money wasted. For nothing.

But wasn't this tread about TARP??

But, but... Bin Laden is dead and GM is alive. :shrug:

 

[Larry Gude]

Larry it shouldnt surprise you, krugman said before the stimulus was passed that it wasnt enough and we would have a jobless recovery.

And the way to a job recovery would be...? Not bailing out the existing failed model, right?

TJ is too busy gleaning everyone's 'real feelings' from her/his magic 8 ball to be bothered with the larger picture; the confluence of cheap labor from uncontrolled immigration, way too easy money inspired by GSE's and lax regulation on Wall Street, $4 gas, which no matter what TJ says, is still $4 and is killing blue color folks along with the cost of EVERYTHING that that affects ( I guess TJ isn't responsible for grocery shopping?), the collapse of family wealth, the wars, health care continues to rise in cost, all this crap, and none of the fundamentals have changed because we are not addressing them.

We've just done nothing but throw around massive band aids and that doesn't equal any kind of recovery and the incredible amount of debt we're piling up. As I say, we need 6% growth to stop the bleeding, another 6% to move forward and 6 more to pay off debt and we're flat.

 

[cwo_ghwebb]

Larry it shouldnt surprise you, krugman said before the stimulus was passed that it wasnt enough and we would have a jobless recovery.

You must be one of the three people that read this Krugman the Clown. Just how much more does the country need to spend as a debt for our future generations to pay in reparations (all in the name of fairness)?

 

[daileyck1]

You must be one of the thirty million people that read this Krugman the Nobel prize winner. Just how much more does the country need to spend as a debt for our future generations to pay in reparations (all in the name of fairness)?

Fixed.

We are a consumer economy in order to consume we need jobs. If they passed a massive infrastructure bill which I think we can all agree needs repairs that would be a good start.

Debt only matters when a Democratic President is in charge.

 

[Gilligan]

Debt only matters when a Democratic President is in charge.

So here is where you list the debts that preceded the massive numbers your hero has racked up.

Then we can discuss the differences.

Oh..in case you hadn't noticed...

a) Krugman's peers think he is a hack

b) Your hero the SCOAMF won a Nobel for the same reason Krugman did. Nothing.

 

[Gilligan]

If they passed a massive infrastructure bill .

Using what money?

 

[PsyOps]

Using what money?

Our children's, children's, children's, children's...